Stormchaserchuck1

We have seen a La Nina STJ

Really unfavorable period for snow coming up along the East Coast. The NAO/AO are going strongly positive, and a -PNA is building in and it looks like holding strong. This -PNA Is associated with ENSO subsurface negative anomalies, that really picked back up about 3 weeks ago.. since then we have gradually transitioned from +PNA to -EPO (neutral ridging over PNA region), to now -PNA. It's hitting the most unfavorable part of the cycle here in about 2 weeks.. I wouldn't expect any snow south of Boston until the pattern weakens, that could mean a few weeks. It was a really nice 2-month pattern though from late Nov until now.. but big pattern change underway.

ENSO is just a mover of the Pacific pattern, not something that trumps it. Wavelengths at our latitude make the difference, so you would be more accurate measuring +PNA or -PNA events for snowstorms. It does also connect with the STJ though, but you still need cold, and it's just not coming or "reloading" from now to the time of the storm.

Yeah it's pretty close - I don't like that we have high heights out ahead of the trough with this storm. Make a composite of 15 GOA or -PNA ridges, and 13 or 14 times it evolves too warm for us to have snow.. it is close to the coldest time of the year, but we need a better pattern imo.

I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of Ocean City, we will be above freezing. That High pressure organizing in the Gulf of Alaska is the reason.

In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region.

Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before.

I predict 0" from this storm in DC and Baltimore, maybe a dusting on the front end.

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us.

Not really.. I've only been bullish about this storm we are having now out of all the storms in the last 5 years, and this is the only one that's verifying. Before this, 5.5" on Nov 15th 2018 was the record. The thing is we haven't had good setups.. this storm had a good setup. That's why I correctly predicted it from 7 days out. A bias means you are favoring one side over the other in verification, but that hasn't happened with me.. Sometimes it's just an easy call: I think this one in 5-6 days is an easy call. When it doesn't snow much with that storm, it won't mean that there is a warm bias. I would love a constant wintery pattern.. it's not happening yet. If there is another setup like this one today with -NAO and a favorable Pacific pattern, I will probably predict snow well in advance. Forecasting results over the last 5 years have not indicated a warm bias, we've just had mostly unfavorable patterns over that time. Here, 8 days ago: and

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow.

If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

I miss the conferences too

We have more precipitable water now.. the snow decreasion is probably about 5-10% but more variance between a no-snow Winter and a 40-45"+ Winter.

-NAO's continue to run as a "new pattern" where a slight amplification of the SE ridge and storms runs underneath of it.. it's not like several decades ago when -NAO meant everything would be squashed or suppressed. The new -NAO:

For real.. it's so easy to blame everything on an easy cause. Fact is, we've had 41/46 Winter +NAO months since 2013, and a 7-consecutive year record breaking streak of -PNA by 175% for Feb-Mar. And 5/6 Winters before this of +WPO The mechanics of the pattern have been bad for cold/snow. Nice to see this wintery pattern set up in late November and last through January..

18-24" snow depth over central-eastern MD and southern Delaware on 03z RAP. RAP does have a slight over amplified bias, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a max report of 15-16"

On radar, it looks like the heavy stuff is setting up around the MD/PA line. I expect 8-9" here

Check out the WV radar. Pretty impressive if you have 4" already.. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KRLX/standard

02z Hrr brings a band of 8-10" into northern MD. Looking good with the coastal too..

Yeah, it may run up the coast. I just think there could be mixing issues in I-95, if not rain.

Since Lamar has been QB, we have lost so many close games, and never gotten blown out. If they don't win in the playoffs it will be less than a TD or something. I agree, Ravens are good. In football where there are only so many plays, the clock runs if they go out of bounds, etc, it is possible to lose a few. They would be my favorites though and maybe the Eagles if Hurts is healthy.

I still don't like the 500mb look over the Pacific for this storm, on the ensembles. In DC/Balt's greatest snowstorms, you have a strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska or PNA region. Models are showing a ridge there. And there is a weak +WPO over the Bering Strait. That pattern could pop a slight SE ridge or flatten the pattern out a little bit, which isn't being shown now, and I think there will be mixing issues, if not possibly rain. The 500mb doesn't match DC/Baltimore snowstorm composite in the Pacific Ocean for the time of this storm.

It evolves different when the storm moves east. I don't like that Pacific look with a flat ridge under +WPO. It's not a real strong pattern, but the pattern does de-evolve as you go forward from when the 500mb low is in Mexico lol several days earlier.