Stormchaserchuck1

It seems to switch back to that La Nina base-state just as we were entering the +correlation time for the Winter (Oct is like 52% correlated, Nov 60%). It just seems to be all around acting as a Weak El Nino event, and I think we could see El Nino patterns in the Winter, but they may be more short lived, and always in a mode of change. If we see 3-4 months of +PNA or GOA low like other El Nino's it would surprise me... Something like the MJO might rise up to be a strong driver this Winter, with lack of other strong connectors. We still favor a +PNA general tendency but it's sheared out a little too much in a fast flow of constant change.

Fwiw, this is a La Nina-base state (-AAM), going into Nov 6, and the 2nd week of November. https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF

Yeah, this has a warm look to it (-AAM), going from the 1st week into the 2nd week of November https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF

Also, with a -EPO for the next 10 days, and a Low north of Hawaii, the Pacific Ocean 500mb is going to look more like an El Nino than La Nina for October at about 70%.

I agree with him that a MEI like this leads cooler than average Winter's.

LR GFS ensemble for Nov 5th looks bad.. -AAM pattern (Nov 1 starts the strong +correlation to the Winter), but maybe we are heading for a better Winter regardless. It looks like a mild start to November.

This is a pretty major trend here with no Aleutian High's on the way. https://ibb.co/3pbmXP4 Going to Neutral, not positive is probably right. I was just talking about the trend direction: It's the highest the PDO has been in a year.

Good news: -PNA was not able to form despite strong long term modeling trend. We have a -EPO pattern now setting in, and there has been a rogue low south of the Aleutian islands as well. This is rapidly shifting the PDO positive at this time. I've seen now since the Spring, 4-5 times where it looked like models were going toward a -PNA, then they just couldn't do it, it ends up being light +pna, -epo.

I personally think that a dry Fall will lead to a wetter Winter. We've been "filling an average" for a couple years now. This was very clear in the Spring to Summer.

Man was this off, and it got 5 likes lol. A +NAO is now occurring, as that had to be one of the biggest trends I've ever seen on MR models. It also has been all over the place in the Pacific.. I've been looking at GFS ensembles every day for 4-5 years, and recent trends are definitely the biggest bust I've seen in the 10+D. It went to -PNA then away from -PNA (now), just -EPO, It was showing +PNA in the beginning... I think the Strong El Nino is messing with LR model accuracy, but again, that's easily the biggest trends I've ever seen in the last 5 years in term of LR GFS ensemble mean verification.

I'm not one who really agrees that the volcano was the reason for that bad Winter (91-92). It was a decadal peak of the +NAO cycle and +PDO cycle, as a lot of Winter's + had similar conditions. Sometimes you don't have a perfect dataset.. there are just anomalies.

In 09-10 there were some warm periods that mixed in after the big snowfalls. That's the signal I'm getting.. El Nino/-QBO is a strong +10mb signal, which often becomes -AO, but it's been hard for any pattern to be consistent for a while now... it's more likely we'll get +PNA and -NAO/AO periods but they will be transitory, and not accumulate a high anomaly reading, for the Winter overall. The predicted value is -0.05, with a 50% chance of SD of 0.54 which makes -0.59 to +0.49 NAO, 50% chance likely.

My method is predicting a neutral NAO for the Winter. https://ibb.co/BsPkpjX 0.54 SD, tested back at 9-8 in the last 17 years gives a 50% probability for a -0.59 to +0.49 Winter NAO, as per this method (DJFM) [CPC].

I have found that there is a Summer SST correlation to the Winter NAO, so when the atmospheric conditions impact the water, it correlates. https://ibb.co/2hCx3xY The index comes out slightly negative in prediction for this Winter's NAO. https://ibb.co/18sCHwq

Here's your -EPO bluewave.. 18z GFS ensembles has it Oct 24-31.

ENSO subsurface remains almost completely warm east to west, which is different from a lot of Nino analogs of the past at this time (a lot of them started to go cooler in the west/central).

51F, rain. I'll tell you what, in the Winter it would be 12" here in Baltimore and more where I live in Harford Co, just that kind of feel.

A Nino does teleconnect to more of a +PNA pattern. That the ENSO subsurface is mostly warm, with no cold anomalies makes me think the classic idea will work, although only in Weak-Moderate-like range. A lot of "Pacific firehoses" in bad Nino analogs were because of cold ENSO subsurface waters, which we don't have right now.

Yeah, that was a big jump over a few model runs. Now we have a ridge near the Aleutian islands. I think that typhoon phasing into a +PNA N. Pacific trough was the cause -- I've seen other model run shifts and they have to do with tropical cyclones phasing, or thereafter. In other news, the -NAO that I posted about earlier is almost completely gone on LR models. They are still trying to develop a -AO, but it's not nearly as strong as models a few days ago. I've noticed this trend too-- strong -nao's on LR models doesn't trend more significant unless something major is the culprit like a Stratosphere warming. Could be something going into the Winter: every -NAO wants to pop a -PNA ridge with it, while +NAO's coincide with +PNA's. (I was hoping ENSO would change this slate-- that's what's been happening for a few years now).

You would get consistent PNA conditions. It would connect with the NPH (North Pacific High). https://ibb.co/5WXHnNZ The NOI (northern hemisphere-Darwin) and SOI* (southern hemisphere-Darwin) are good measurements.

09-10 had the 4th coldest October on record for the US. Cold air has been harder to find these days.

Yeah. It's staying in Weak-Moderate range though (as per past analogs). A lot of Strong Nino's had cold subsurface waters, and that is really my point for why the pattern was often warmer. Aleutian low's, no matter how strong, should correlate with an EC trough. SE ridges and further east N. Pacific low's to near the West coast, were -PNA patterns driven by cold subsurface ENSO waters. This year is not following that suit that a lot of Strong Nino's of the past did. I was worried that if the event got Stronger the subsurface water would cool.

TAO/Triton https://ibb.co/DRYthLB It's going to be hard to get a -PNA that sticks without <-1 anomalies in the subsurface

Why would you minus El Nino years, this isn't La Nina?

Nino 3.4 is between +1.4 and +1.5 on October 11th.. I don't think there was ever any question that this is not going to be a Super event. We seemed to be breaking records before, and in my opinion that's just because ENSO is catching up to the global warming trend of the last 20 years. ENSO subsurface is not cold anywhere, which is a good sign for legitimate atmospheric responses in the northern latitudes, but it's not very warm, maybe 30-50% of the "Super" events.