Stormchaserchuck1

These runs are really fluctuating from one to another. Even the ensembles. A few days ago they had a strong LR -PNA, now it's gone.

People don't understand weather. Why aren't Strong La Nina's cold, if Strong El Nino's are warm? Strong El Nino's are more realistically the blend of the historical analogs of Weak-Moderate-Strong past events put together. Weak El Nino's are more random, or neutral, the cold signal is just a lack of many examples, as it is though somewhat showing the base-Nino state (Weak-Moderate-Strong).

Opposite correlation, in science you get correlations from 0.00 to 1.00, if you use the negative side you get 2x result. Use anomalies, it mostly works, probably greater than 90% correlated (+ and - side).

The last 4 +QBO/La Nina's have been historically bad so I'm hopeful I think the trend of the last 7 years is still strong though, for example: I don't expect 02-03 where it was snowing every day, the Winters surrounding that were more alike.

I'd kinda worry about the February -PNA trend of the last 6 years, which gives us a +150dm anomaly. NAO might be negative at that time given all the Stratospheric warming signals, but Feb I think is not a blow out in the Pacific.

Why are El Nino's warm in December? What is the physical reason? Why aren't La Nina's cold? Cold Winter's start cold in December, it's the intro month to longer wavelengths season.. the Winter sets in in December at like a 0.30-40 correlation, if you base it on a 200yr period. Really, Oct and Nov should start cold too.

Oct QBO came in at -16.98, and still dropping. Having a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO is rare... probably 1/25 year type event, for this type of strength of both. In the next few days, I might do some research and post maps about the unusually high 10mb correlation in the Winter.

The default is +, so +NAO has negative heights over Greenland. Fwiw, -PNA Nov has 0.2 correlation with -NAO December.

Nov doesn't historically have a high correlation to the PNA This is after Oct had a decent +pna/-epo correlation that I think we hit. In December the strong N. Pacific influence of ENSO for the Winter starts to present itself

Big -PNA November it looks like.. Not much of a correlation Nov going into December PNA Lite correlation to February

We do have an Aleutian ridge, -PNA, setting up for the next 10 days, Nov 5-15. After that we'll see if models are right about a transition back to +pna.

Yeah, I suspect a warmer March and probably April, just based on the trends of the last few years. I wonder if we'll transition into La Nina going into April..

Going back to the LR model accuracy that I was talking about before, now we have a colder pattern modeled, and a pretty strong +pna too. https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk Since this El Nino began, The LR GFS ensembles has been in flux more than I've ever seen before in the last 5-10 years.

The Pacific for Oct looks like an El Nino. We also have the pattern starting to show itself again on LR models. https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk Remember, we are coming off of some powerful -PNA for the last 6 years so I'll take it. https://ibb.co/FgjXKt4 I think too we've had some higher than average correlations with ENSO in satellite era, as something like 20/22 events had a +pna or -pna associated. In the early 1900s, it was not that strong.

I guess I should have focused on the Indonesia region, this is a pretty strong correlation. My point was near the dateline you had the index happening with both El Nino's and La Nina's.

I'm focused on predictive value with a lead time. Subsurface seems to work best for the PNA.

Something like OLR or 200mb, 850mb Zonal wind are higher correlated.

Measure the thing as a stand alone index. It has little predictive value for sensible weather. I just started going by the thing year-by-year. I found that the first 23 years were all alike. It's a longer term pattern or cycle, but the 1950s and 1960s were very -PNA, and that's 30% of your yearly dataset. Again, be an observer, because something is blue or red during an El Nino year doesn't mean that it isn't random. Seperate the thing out year-by-year and you find La Nina's and El Nino's both associated with similar "forcings".

It happened every year from 1950 to 1972. The average of the 23-consecutive years was greater than this year (Sept-Oct). That was a very -PNA/-PDO time. The VP caught on here as "something to correlate", but it's not by itself very correlated to the pattern.

We're getting a pretty good Kelvin Wave right now.

Looks like they did good last Winter. Even hit the Dec -NAO. I had 0"

+NAO https://ibb.co/9V9VM4h

So what? It correlates with -PNA..

The last 6 Winter's, we have had -PNA's a greater % of the time, in 3 month periods, then the last 7 months, since the El Nino developed. (I'm quantifying that 1/10 chance, and saying if you base on current probability for PNA it's about 1/3 of the 5/7 recently (5/21).

For reference, Stratosphere warmings average "downwell" time to effect Winter -AO: Oct 15-30: +60 days (Dec 15-30 -AO correlation) Oct 30-Nov 15: +45 days (Dec 15-30 -AO correlation) Nov 15-30: +40 days (Dec 25-Jan 10 -AO correlation) Dec 1-15: +35 days (Jan 5-Jan 20 -AO correlation) Dec 15-30: +30 days (Jan 15-30 -AO correlation) Jan 1-15: +25 days (Jan 25- Feb 5 -AO correlation) Jan 15-30: +20 days (Feb 5-20 -AO correlation) Feb 1-15: +15 days (Feb 15-Mar 2 -AO correlation) Feb 15-Mar 2: +15 days (Mar 1-15 -AO correlation) Mar 1-30: +10-15 days (Mar 10-Apr 15 -AO correlation) [CDC daily climate composite maps day-by-day going back to 1948.] Oct 30mb QBO should come in the next few days. Sept was -13, and down 5 from September, so Nov should come in more negative. <-10 30mb QBO and El Nino correlate strongly with Winter Stratosphere warmings (I think there is a >60% +10mb Winter correlation (NDJFM), and >+10 30mb QBO and La Nina has a >60% -10mb Winter correlation (NDJFM)). Strong 10mb vortex (Stratosphere cooling) has a +0-Day correlation to +AO from Oct 30 - Apr 5 (all Winter), no lagtime. The images posted earlier in this thread of a cold 10mb are correlating with MR/LR models showing 500mb +NAO.