Stormchaserchuck1

March is a wetter month.. this would give us snow a lot of times, but we average 2-3" in December

Thank you PSU for taking all my trash.. put on me. (college)

12z NAM

Ensembles are south of the OP with the rising-out of-NAO block-potential/storm. -NAO/50-50 low/wet pattern They really pop this SE ridge strong, but it's not going to be this bad, (unless models shift toward an Aleutian high). mustering up potential energy The hit.. restrengthening 50/50 low after -NAO wanes (rising up out of NAOindex#research).. EPO's are colder at the surface if it holds. It's a window of time. I'm still generally worried about warm air, but it could be a big hit before it melts.

What's remarkable is we have had a -NAO/-AO for the Winter. (This is suppose to be our coldest pattern).

This storm? wow.. what a miss Pattern is really wet through the whole model run...

Actually, China is the only place in the world that doesn't match March 2012.

Looks wet Too bad we're going to waste this to warm air. There are like 5 strong N. Hemisphere pattern matches to March 2012, through Day 6. Then they just like zoom away, like a kite?

Look at how the Pacific is the worst possible when the -NAO starts to move in ^This fits really well until the NAO overtakes Greenland, still I contend that since 2019, W->E has overstated S->N.

It's trending away from a colder pattern in general, like a see-saw, duality matrix.

I bet you the soundings at the surface are marginal all across the board(model runs).

You don't want that ++EPO. The cold air will get cutoff (for the MA).

40s over the Davis Straight and rain to central Greenland does not really bode well.

We have been blasting the Pacific when/as soon as the NAO goes negative, since 2019.

Look at how warm the N. Hemisphere pattern is.. near Greenland/Davis straight a lot of times these latitude disproportionates even out in time/future model runs

Models have had an active STJ for the timeperiod.. looks nice if it holds

ensembles got better

Give you the dream pattern

-NAO's aren't usually so wet.. 2nd time this year. Bodes well for our future imo.

Straight up blizzard for the Great Lakes in about half of these ensemble runs.

Let's initialize this <492dm AK vortex.

Nice cross-polar anomaly ridge.. -EPO, +PNA, west-based -NAO, active STJ. All good but the heavy -PNA next 10 days does still render the forward pattern a little weak.. We have been over-initializing current conditions to the models full run so let's see what happens as we get closer.. right now I like it. 50/50 low

Healthy March precip pattern

You might really need some time for this to clear. This is a very warm pattern.

I wouldn't be surprised if this entire -NAO occurs with equally bad Pacific until it breaks.. That +EPO projected for March 1-3 is really strong. Models give a small window around March 10th of a -epo connecting with -nao ridge, but if the Pacific gets good, we might expect a +nao to coincide. (I have a -NAO signal until March 19th, but maybe that will be wrong if the Pac is good.) I think we look a little bit better overall for March 8-19, but it will be interesting because the NAO-Pacific inverse correlation shows no signs of going anywhere, at least in the medium range, at the start of this -NAO.