Stormchaserchuck1

I've noticed this, this year. There is a symmetry to the two atlantic storms- two east pacific storms, and that Cat 5. It seems the pattern is smoothing north, where 35N is the old 30N, as a macro pattern.

Natural Gas now down to 2.5 after rising from 2.1 to 2.7. It's price action similar to what it was '96-00. Russia remains colder than average.. through July on LR models. So Apr 2022- July 2023 (15 months): Research shows that the next 12+ months features to even out (warmer than average Russia). So DJF would be a composite of warmer than average Russia at like 0.25-30 correlation (I'll run the map when I have time).

Pretty significant pattern change coming up in 4-5 days..

I don't see why not. The NAO is negatively correlating, that's the only difference (-nao is correlating with +EPO/-PNA, +nao is better overall for snowfall). This started in the -PNA extremes after Dec 2010.

Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. (I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time. It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)

I don't know about that.. maybe people are biased to their personal experiences. Everything about the society seems to "even out".

-PNA looks to be a constant around Day 5-15+. I have noticed tremendous low model skill vs course correcting a lot in current conditions. When that SE ridge potentially pops in 5 days, and if we get warmer, watch for a trend warmer in the LR.

We've seen 4 straight days of 90s across the area, with not much agreement in upper latitude pattern. -NAO now looks to persist next 10 days, this has correlated with extended ridge down the EC lately. The problem I have with 65-66 analog is the -NAO really dug into -PNA SE ridge, forcing trough. The NAO is not even in the same ballpark of pattern these days: we need pacific-forced cold, but a -nao may give us bigger storms to work with. Either way I think the STJ will be pretty juicy as the pattern is macro, Hard to imagine we get a lot of rainstorms if there is a Moderate+ Nino this Winter.

Pretty nice -NAO setting up here the next few days. Watch to see if the SW builds a strong High pressure, to move across later in the month, and we have generally been busting warmer here in -nao's.

Back to +7c in the eastern subsurface.. The El Nino may become a self-perpetuating system, given how round its yearly evolution is. I think it will be interesting to see the unfoldment of the N. Pacific pattern if the central-subsurface remains cold and Nino 3-4 move into Moderate territory. this tendency toward cold bias will have been what we have seen through a lot of 2020-2022.

If this cold pool doesn't go anywhere, it's going to be more of a -pna Winter. Amazing to see the Nino getting squeezed out in the subsurface, after the Kelvin waves last Oct-Feb.

A big storm here in Fallston, many lighting bolts, lots of booms. Maybe 25+ less than 1 mile strikes.

The MEI does have a higher correlation to the global 500mb pattern than Nino 3.4 SSTs, so to miss something by 0.8 does matter. I've yet to see a strong Nino pattern anywhere around the globe. There was thought that the Atlantic Hurricane season would see a bounce this year, with last years relative-low, but that historically is really only possible if El Nino stays weaker. 2002 and 2004 both had 15 Atlantic NS, the record high for El Nino.

A strong -PNA setting up for late July, on the 384hr ensemble mean. This would negate a lot of the +pna action recently, and if the central-subsurface continues to cool, this fits too.. strong correlation there, validating in LR models right now.

The -NAO streak continues.. models trended toward +EPO and highs in the 90s today, with -NAO setting in place. Everytime a -NAO happens, we trend warmer/SE ridge, and the pacific short term goes +epo. This has been happening since 2019, more often than a coincidence. Especially since 2021.

I can see the coast being a gravitation for pressure systems in the Winter by the way the pattern is.. We have seen a lot of this since year 2000.

Really getting warm today. I like this pattern setting up with a trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes through mid-July.

ONI research: 2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 5 month: (1.2) Best CPC ONI matches: -2010 (1.7) [1.6 peak], -2007 (1.1) [1.6 peak], 2006 (0.8) [0.9 peak], -2003 (1.2) [0.4 peak], 1997 (1.3) [2.4 peak], -1995 (0.9) [1.0 peak], 1989 (1.1) [-0.1 peak], -1988 (1.7) [1.8 peak], 1982 (0.7) [2.2 peak], -1978 (1.0) [0.4], 1976 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1972 (1.4) [2.1], 1965 (0.8) [2.0 peak], -1964 (1.7) [0.8 peak], 1957 (1.1) [1.8 peak], -1954 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1951 (1.2) [1.2 peak] ...A lot of weak events in the mix. A few early peakers, and the Strong el nino events qualify but some movements to Strong Nina's had faster pushes, then what qualifies as +0.5(1.2). You can tell that the trend evens out over the whole dataset (5/5 Strong events qualify doesn't tell the whole story). https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2003 was Neutral, 2006 was Weak, 1995 was Weak, 1989 was Neutral, 1978 was Neutral, 1976 was Weak, 1964 was Weak, 1954 was Weak.

Again, the subsurface warmth is getting suffocated out. In the long range, it will be hard for the El Nino to continue to strengthen rapidly with central-subsurface profile like this. I've done research correlating this region with N. Hemisphere pattern, and the developing of cool anomalies supports -PNA conditions. This generality continues into the Winter: The more warm or cold the central-ENSO-subsurface is, the more the N. Pacific pattern will or won't react. (I've tested OLR, 850mb winds, SLP, SSTs, and 200mb winds, sigma, etc, and the central-subsurface has the highest correlation of all at D+0.)

It's still a macro-pattern, that means more activity with fewer systems. Seem pretty fitting going into an El Nino winter. Watch the central-ENSO subsurface, this has been cooling, and if that region continues not to warm the El Nino will have less effect in the Winter, despite what happens at the surface.

Yeah, the air is too saturated. Im watching cumulus building to the north but it's nothing like the last few days (Harford Co) edit: nevermind, the storm is really going. Probably close to 1" of rain.

low to mid 90s today across the area with -NAO. The pattern is N-S is elongating a trough or ridge, through Hadley Cells (15N-80N). I think in the Winter a -NAO will be hard to lock cold, but a stronger El Nino could overpower. This -NAO = warmth thing is really unbelievable because it is happening so often.

90F here, Sunny. You can tell the air is saturated though.

^That's a good post. I'm worried about the cold pool developing in the central-subsurface too. The mid-July -PNA may be with an enhancement of this. It's been a tough area to stay constantly warm since the Winter, with a few short term cooler pushes having happened since March, overall a weaker +.