Wow

That's what I'm here for. Christmas blizzard of '24

18z GFS looking like the earlier Euro AI run with a huge PNA ridge spiking up to the pole. That AI run ended with a what looked like a sustained long wave pattern with a split jet and PV over SE Canada heading to the new year.

SST trend last 7 days to show that cooling (and warming to the east). Certainly taking the punch out of the -PDO a bit.

The Pacific is looking like the best I've seen in years if this pans out. Given how this last cold pattern worked out, I think it's looking more likely. SST trends last 7 days...

So the 12z ECMWF attempted a triple phaser today. The leading s/w stole most of the thunder on the sfc reflection (still blasts the NE of course) but the upper air pattern is gold Look at that PNA ridge! 850mb temps.. almost brings -20C down to FL.

Intolerant post.

This is a very volatile, fast paced upper air flow. Blocks build up as fast as they break away. No sustained cold or warm and the long range forecasts are tough to nail down. Lots of conflicting signals out there. I like it. I think we'll get another shot at a snow threat and serious cold before Christmas.

12z Canadian looks ripe. I'll take it.

That's a "too slow" option

Trough east of HI = ridge over the SW. The baja low will kick east. We'll see some waffling with all models on this one for a little while but it's legit possibility. Way too slow and won't make in time with the cold and a complete dud. A little slow and more ice than snow as the mid level cold pulls out and all we have left is in-situ low level cold air. Just fast enough and could be a classic I-85 snowstorm.

GFS @ 210 ...Keep an eye on this. If this can dig a bit more...

That's what I said the other day. This is something we haven't seen in years. Wake up wx weenies!

within 10 days on the setup.. we'll call it a plausible solution. The cold air will definitely be there. Won't sniff out a possible low until we're within a few days with the number of weak short waves moving underneath the PV. There will be a healthy upper low off the CA coast by 144 hrs that'll be pumping out these waves in pieces as it presses in toward the PV. Most will be sheared out but after the PV spins out and gives some breathing room, that'll be perfect time to pop a low in the GOM if one of these waves can phase in enough energy on the back side of the PJ/AJ.

wow the 18z GFS just put us in the freezer for the foreseeable future.. looks like 76-77 type of pattern. Snow almost to the gulf coast.

I like the reverse psychology. Keep at it!

There will never be another Jan 96. Every KU storm is distinct in its own way. I mean, was that storm similar to any other previous storm?

It's things like this that make long range/seasonal forecasting so interesting. There's always something that defies what we thought we expected. How a simple anomaly can force a butterfly effect on the entire long range forecast.

works fine on desktop.. mobile has been an issue. Invision is sucking a bit.

use imgbb ... copy your image. go to the site. hit ctrl+v and upload. click the image and copy the image address. the paste it here. easy!

The way things are trending with other the OP and ens runs recently I think your odds are looking better up there.

That's it? Man the last few years have really ripped your spirits to shreds. The pattern looks f'ing AWESOME!! Where are my weenies at?

NW Pac really cooling down.. 7 day trend map

First fantasy storm of the season !

The 360 hr Euro doesn't disappoint! That's an active STJ with arctic air diving south.

With nearly 20 years of GFS (AVN/MRF) running out to 384 hrs, the Euro is finally ready to pull the trigger. This will be fun to watch.