RU848789

I've asked several times if there are snowmaps for the AIFS (they're not on Pivotal or TT, so one has to guess from temp/precip maps) and no replies, lol, so nice to see this map, thanks; wonder if WeatherBell has them. As this model has been performing quite well this winter, we might need you StormVista folks to post these maps. :>)

I assume you're referring more to the 1/24 possible event not the 1/19 event, which is nice, but not spectacular for our area. I get it, but I'd way rather get snow like the Euro/AIFS are showing for 1/19 and then hope for something 5 days later.

Argues for an Op outlier to some extent. Would be nice.

Euro looks very similar to the GFS at the surface.

Can't believe nobody posted the UK which is a nice hit and while it's not as amped/snowy as the CMC I might rather get 2-4" guaranteed with temps in the 20s (3-6" if we get good ratios which is possible) than the potential for lots of mixing/rain along and SE of 95 like the CMC. And the UK down south would be absolutely nuts; 1989 redux for the GA/SC/NC coasts. I have relatives in Charleston and Savannah and they all thought th 1989 storm was one of the most amazing things they had ever seen, even though they're not snow lovers. I almost want them to get that and us get nothing. Almost, lol.

Just got on line (poker night) and first thing I look at is the CMC - crazy - has us at about 5", but 10 miles NW is 7" and 10 miles SE is 1". Easy forecast, lol. More importantly, nice move back SE without losing its "amp-ness."

C'mon at least give a hint as to what you're implying with a post like that...

What do you mean by this? I see plenty of snow maps in this forum.

6Z was not good for us for the Sunday event with only the Euro showing some snow, but much less than at 0Z, while the GFS and ICON were whiffs.

Yep, NJ has nowhere near the fire risk that Cali does - it's in the desert with incredibly dry fuels from months without rain (much more of a 6- month drought than we ever get), plus we don't ever get 5-10% humidity with dry wind gusts over 70 mph - the only time we get gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph is from a storm bringing moisture. Throw in more density in their forested areas, plus the very rugged terrain and less water available to fight fires and there's the recipe for disaster. As we see almost every year, despite CA probably having the most advanced firefighting systems and personnel anywhere.

OMG, when was the last time we had snowed like that when it was in the teens for the entire event? And people know I don't like Kuchera, but hard to imagine not having 15:1 or higher ratios with snow crystal generation rates like that and low temps - but not the 40:1 ratios that Kuchera shows well NW of 95. Still 8 days out but pretty to look at...

Not true - EPS mean shows a general 1-2" event around the 23rd and one would expect a decent amount less on an ensemble mean, which surely has quite a few misses, than an Op at 9 days out.

Schwing!

A very good article on what a cold and potentially snowy pattern is - and is not. Lots of chances coming up starting around 1/19 and going for a week or longer beyond that, but no guarantees of significant snow (just greater probabilities than usual). https://www.weathernj.com/another-snowy-pattern-detected/

Nice storm, especially with temps in the 20s and possibly 12-15:1 ratios (Kuchera shows ~15:1, but I don't trust ratios without knowing the situation in the DGZ where snow crystals/dendrites form)...just don't want to get rain on 1/19 and then have to wait until day 9 for snow, recognizing that counting on something at day 9 is a low probability usually...but I don't think the weather cares, lol.

Not sure why you're talking about the GEFS in reply to my post on the EPS.

On Pivotal Premium, I can see that the 06 Euro AI has temps in the 20s with 0.3-0.4" of precip falling on 1/20, which is pretty obviously snow, but they don't have any snowfall maps (same for the GFS AI) so I have to guess at snow - do you have snowfall maps and if so on which service? Just wondering if it's time to switch services. Thanks.

Nice despite the 0Z Op showing little snow...

Tell me the 18Z GFS Op is an outlier without telling me the GFS Op is an outlier, lol.

Really cool post by Tomer Burg on frequencies of DC-Boston megalopolis snowstorms of various sizes associated with Greenland Ridge decays (and afterwards) and other regime changes (including baseline no regime change). https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324

Looks like a general 0.5-1.5" snowfall looking at the NWS accumulation map below, with a few places <0.5" and a few places more than 1.5", including Cape May once again being the NJ winner with 2.2"...so certainly not a whiff and even made it to minor territory (1-2") for many, which is a bit of a surprise. No NWS-NYC reports yet, other than 0.5" at Central Park.

Looks like a general 0.5-1.5" snowfall looking at the NWS accumulation map, below, with a few places <0.5" and a few places more than 1.5", including Cape May once again being the NJ winner with 2.2"...so certainly not a whiff and even made it to minor territory (1-2" - IMO) for many, which is a bit of a surprise. All gone from sunny spots, but still some in the shade, where we also still had some snow left over from Monday's event. No NWS-NYC reports yet, other than the 0.5" at Central Park.

Yes, but 5 years of data is not necessarily indicative of some sort of climate shift. The previous 3 March's (including one April snow) I got 11.8", 26.2" and 10.5".

As of 5:30 am we had 0.3" on the ground at 27F (fell back to sleep after that so didn't get to post it, lol) and as of 6:30 am we have 0.6" of very fine, fluffy pixie dust on pretty much all surfaces, so pavement is slick, but looking at the radar, it looks like that's about it for this "storm." We're up to 6.5" on the season. Very pretty little snowfall though.

As of 5:30 am we had 0.3" on the ground at 27F (fell back to sleep after that so didn't get to post it, lol) and as of 6:30 am we have 0.6" of very fine, fluffy pixie dust on pretty much all surfaces, so pavement is slick, but looking at the radar, it looks like that's about it for this "storm." We're up to 6.5" on the season. Very pretty little snowfall though.