78Blizzard

Looks just like that 18z run last night, even where the jack is in SE MA.

30 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I have a feeling that the 0z NAM is going to look a lot like that 18z run last night, lol.

ASOUT

I have a feeling that the 0z NAM is going to look a lot like that 18z run last night, lol.

Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

21z SREF's with a nice 20 spot for the mean at BOS, OWD and a 21 at PYM.      

I'll take it!!

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

23z HRRR smokes you guys. Will be following along in the obs thread to live vicariously through you from down here in DC.  Enjoy the storm!  

Another 5 or 6 hours of the good stuff yet to come.

36 minutes ago, Hoth said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

You can see in that water vapor imagery the blocking high up around Labrador that is what is going to drive this NW after it gets a bit past our latitude, and could be a factor in stalling it for a time south of us.

32 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

22z HRRR is great down this way.  18-20" thru runs end and still going.  Looks like that run would have been good for 24"+.

That run really amped up from the 21z run.

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, below is a list of March 1 or later snowstorms that brought 10” or more snow to Boston:

March 3-4, 1891: 14.0”
March 2-3, 1892: 10.0”
March 12-13, 1939: 11.1”
March 19-21, 1944: 10.8”
March 19-20, 1956: 13.3”
March 3-4, 1960: 19.7”
March 6-7, 1967: 10.8”
March 15-16, 1967: 10.0”
April 6-7, 1982: 13.3”
March 13-14, 1993: 12.8”
March 7-8, 1996: 10.4”
March 31-April 1, 1997: 25.4”
March 7-8, 2013: 13.1”

I remember that March 3-4, 1960 storm.  I was 13 at the time and we didn't own a car living in Roslindale.  My father left work at the Sears mail order plant in the Fenway and found the trains & buses not running.  So he attempted to walk home in the storm (about 5-6 miles), but got only as far as the hospitals up Brookline Ave. and stayed at one of them for the night.  Quite the storm.

RGEM improved from 12z, but still appears weaker than other guidance.

The RGEM starts between 11-12 tonight in Boston area, earlier than other guidance.  Snow doesn't end until 24 hours later.

Jim Cantore just said that "not only is this thing going to bomb, it's probably going to bomb twice".  Whatever that means...

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX’s range map...

That map was prepared before the 18z model runs.

James shouldn't pay any attention to that TT snow map giving him 3-4 inches or so around Chatham.  After 3-4 hours of some rain at the beginning, the NAM really brings the goods down there.

Still going until 5z Wed. here.

1 minute ago, CoolMike said:

Yeah - never seen a modeled SLP do that before.  Its like fujiwhara-ing about an invisible secondary low.

That could be the stall we have been looking for.

The Ukie still looks to give 12+ to E MA, more for the Cape.

3k NAM well E of 18z but still delivers the goods. 

As good as the HRDPS was, it was still not as good as the 12z, continuing the trend.  But we don't toss.

21 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Navgem ftw!

Well W of GFS, and even a bit NNW of 12z GFS.

At this point, I'll take a Euro/NAM 50-50 compromise.  Better yet, a Ukie/NAM compromise.

The NAM will most likely begin the cave at 0z.  The 3k has already done so.

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.

Yet they don't include Boston and Providence

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

Quite possible, Tip.  Especially since the UK doesn't go to British Saving Time (BST) until March 25th.

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie track was east of an already east track. Just had qpf magic

It was in the same position at hr 48 at 12z vs hr 60 at 0z, and 3 mb stronger.

Even the Ukie was still holding serve at 12z.  For those with the JMA fetish, even it came N from 0z, lol.  The euro is the outlier right now, king or not.