What's interesting on that GFS run is that the heavy convection was to the north and northwest, while the storm took an eastward track. Usually we see these setups where it chases the heavy convection to the east of the center and we lose out. That's why I'm not buying this eastward track.
Besides those two outliers to the south, there are 5 others that are far to the east, and that is obviously pulling the mean more to the east than what the rest of the members would suggest. The vast majority of the members are to the west of the mean.
7", 9º F here now. Nothing much accumulated in the first hour, only adding up in the past 5 hours, so over 1"/hr now. Wind is picking up, so there will be some drifting. Evidence of that was against the garage doors with 8" there.
We went to the Wegman's here in town on Thursday and people had already cleaned the shelves. There was very little bottled water left, and the milk we buy, we got the last few containers. That's what happens when the news media starts headlining this so many days ahead.