SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I suspect this will be a theme in the future
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Atlantic blocking is remarkably stable and long lasting So it's more or less a waiting game for things to improve our west. So I'm guessing the system on the 9th gets shredded like Euro & CMC show. Looks like GFS is trending in that direction but it's still something to watch
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This is the dreaded pacific puke pattern in a nutshell. Stormy but never cold enough for snow and not pleasant enough to enjoy either. It's basically March weather all winter. This is still just a forecast though. No guarantee it plays out that way either
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Not much frozen in this pattern. It's a stormy but mild look as pacific jet brings the storms, the block helps to amplify them but there's no cold air to be found.
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I don't think we're gonna get a good pacific this season. The best we can hope for is that it's not overly hostile.
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Okay then let me clarify. For areas south we need the +PNA or a neutral PNA in December Bluewave made it very clear. Rockies ridge is a must.
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You need a good pacific in December to benefit. Current signs point to better conditions by mid month however we need to see this hold into the medium term range. Pacific particularly PNA is less important Jan-March.
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That clown JB always uses this model
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Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south
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Nah that's nonsense
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We've had a lot more luck in January than December and it looks like that will be the case again. January may actually turn out really well if the blocking sticks around and we don't have to rely on the Pacific as much
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The wavering from the GFS has been ridiculous. I don't know what they're doing
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Pacific becomes a little more favorable and everything trends a lot better. That'll be key over next 10 days
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Euro looks so much better with the blocking than GFS.
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Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.
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I guess that's a possibility then.
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Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO.
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Given the longevity of this block that's probably the option to go with.
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Looks like this will get kind of wacky initially under the blocking pattern until it stabilizes. GEFS/EPS/GEPS eventually get onboard with a more typical strong -NAO/AO look. Before that there's this SWFE potential as cold high bleeds in while shortwave ejects. PA gets 6-12" out of it
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If the shitty Pacific pattern plays out then it'll be a delayed not denied situation. Even the GEFS eventually comes around though its been very disappointing seeing things play out. GEPS looked better At some point you have to wonder if the very warm ssts off the east coast enhanced the SE ridging
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It's the Pacific that's giving the models problems. Arctic blocking hasn't changed that much on the models but the Pacific is all over the place. Hopefully that gets resolved soon
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Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists. I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good. If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December It could also be case of delayed not denied
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GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies
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I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane
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Models struggle to figure out the Pacific beyond a few days. The day to day changes on the models are drastic. I predict they'll shift back to favorable in the next day or two
