SnoSki14

That's not true at all. All the cold will shift to our side

Its been March since the Christmas cold

It'll only snow Wednesday if there's WAA overrunning ahead of it. Otherwise it's a wash Personally think early Feb has better odds

Nam trended more favorably for Wednesday.

Models are deamplifying the storm when in the past they've made them more amplified at this range. I'm not saying it'll work out but that something to be mindful of

I never said Wednesday is going to turn into a snowstorm. I said models are suggesting it could become a SWFE

We had a severely negative AO, a negative NAO and even a decent PNA for a time in December and it produced squat. Also see Tip's post in the New England subforum about how teleconnections don't play the same role as they did in the past in today's CC era. The TPV will be coming south with the cold shifting to our side of the globe. Whether that'll be enough to counter the SE ridging remains to be seen. Additionally the polar vortex is going to be taking a beating over the next 10+ days. That'll introduce uncertainty to the pattern. We're already seeing models deamplify the 25/26 system. Could turn into a SWFE

Ensembles shift the cold to our side of the globe. It wouldn't take much to break more favorable for us with strong gradient pattern possible. I would want to be further north though. SNE & points north could do really well

Where can you see them. Can they be posted on here

That's still really hard to believe until I see it.

We've been warm since Christmas. There hasn't been one cool day since EPS has 2-3 cool days late Jan and that's it

If that happens then this will be the warmest & least snowy winter (D-F) on record. We would see record early growth

Thanks. I almost forgot how horrible 19/20 was too. Also despite 72/73 being the lowest snow season it was considerably colder than a lot of other futility years. So that season was more attributed to bad luck than anything

I think it's highly unlikely but it's always possible.

Do you have a chart for the ten worst winters (warmth + lack of snow) for the entire season

If it still manages to snow down to the gulf coast some years then we have a lot of time before coastal snows become unviable. If we do see little to no snow the rest of this season then I wouldn't be shocked at a blockbuster 23/24. It's all or nothing nowadays. 02/03, one of the snowiest seasons ever did follow 01/02. Next winter will likely see a Nino as well.

March snows mean something in New England especially the further N/W you go. They're rarely relevant in our region and further south. The only March storm I would welcome is a major KU

I think this winter is done but I can never rule out a fluke snow event. I would personally like to see that 0 happen for historical purposes.

That's subjective. For many it would be the best winter of their lifetime because of a lack of snow/cold. I've been over this winter for weeks now, fully into the acceptance stage. Spring weather can't get here fast enough though I always worry that March/April will be when the wintry pattern shows up.

Actually it hasn't been that wet relative to normal. It just feels like it has though that might change with the wave of cutters coming. This is for NJ though, not sure how it is elsewhere

Dudes a warminista troll but looks like a genius in patterns like this Joe Bustardi meanwhile just looks dumber & dumber with each passing day. Always picks the coldest model for a specific time frame either to denounce climate change or make some bogus wintry forecast.

That's looking likely. Lots of precip coming up, none of it frozen. February looks mild. March is a wild card but it wouldn't shock me if that's where the snow happens like in 97/98. The rapidly changing wavelengths and potential SSWE in Feb could make it interesting.

West trend won't be denied. That Atlantic ridging will makes sure of it There's nothing holding a 50/50 in place

People wonder how we went nearly a decade without major snows in the 80s or had multiple low years in the late 90s Well that's how. But we also have to deal with the effects of CC on our patterns today. One of those big effects is the southbound Greenland ridging and ridging off the Atlantic coast. It's going to be harder and harder to deliver a good snow season here. On the plus side, if and when things do come together you could get a massive storm. There will be a storm that drops 3-5' of snow over our area over the next 10-15 years or before the warming becomes too much.

Here's why it'll keep moving west. Look at those anomalies off of New England. That's reinforcing the ridging there