SnoSki14

7 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

For those who have an open mind… (because real “science” is supposed to be open to all possibilities)
 

 

 

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Lol yeah no. 

For climate change deniers the whole world could literally be on fire and they'll look the other way. 

There's no new low they won't sink too. A lot of these rich folks already have bunkers ready.

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think amped is more likely

I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. 

Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. 

March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie run 

Funny enough a more southern track is probably more likely.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the only thing I would add beyond 5 days out is that we usually get our snowstorms after the -AO has peaked rather than at the very beginning. 

The AO will have been quite negative for a while by then though. 

And it's almost impossible for every variable to work in our favor. 

You really need a strong, dynamic system for the 13th as airmass is not very good but there is some potential.

Northern stream needs to get more involved 

The 13th system has legitimacy but it's marginal and could be suppressed. Too early to tell. 

Almost looks like an early spring type bowling ball that blows up quickly. Fast mover that may drop a foot on someone. 

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extended EPS actually looks pretty good from Feb 26 into March as the Pacific finally backs off and heights rise out West. If that 500 mb pattern actually verifies, then it could produce a 4” or 6”+ snowfall event in NYC. We need to really swing for the fences that period for NYC to get over 10” on the season. But it’s going to come right down to the wire.

February 26 to March 4th..Can we hold until under 120 hrs? Stay tuned…

 

 

 

This aligns really well with raindancewx stormy March forecast. 

Really don't want to wait that long though. March 2018 was great but climo still worked against us near the coast.

Even a 1-2 weeks of snow potential earlier than March 2018 is better for us so hopefully late Feb into 1st week of March we score.

2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z Euro not a fan of our storm at all. Boots it out to sea near the Carolinas and lets it play in the Atlantic Basin.

This is a 9 day prog on an op run. I wouldn't worry about it too much. 

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Nice pattern change

Care to post the 0z now?

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. 

But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest snow event this season in March if the mid Feb pattern rolls forward.

A trough in the SW has less of an effect on us in late winter due to changing wavelengths. 

I also hope that doesn't happen, I don't care about March snows unless it's a KU system so Feb 15-29 is it for me. 

Put up or shut up. 

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The favorable pattern is moving up

At this point it's nothing but a snooze fest and I don't care what happens anymore. 

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

He doesn't have balls. He Is a conservative forecaster.

Snowman really hates that it could snow. Everything I've ever seen from him has been anti-winter. 

Now he thinks they'll be suppression. So far this Nino has produced one of the wettest Dec-Jan periods for us and he thinks they'll be suppression.

Delusional thinking 

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They’ll be panic measures …rushed out of necessity because like what’s happening in the last year and a half showed us fools, this shit show can go through accelerations that nobody thought were believable.  

Maybe it’ll work, but it would be a race. And as resources become abruptly scarce because of proverbial firewall events …too difficult and expensive …crops fail on macro scales, food shortages, death in heat waves that exceed projections …runs on banks, social structures destabilize ultimately become untethered and untenable, social order finally dissolves. Book of Eli

finally, we understand why for the Fermian Paradox 

I think this summer is going to be brutal for a lot of people and I predict one of the most damaging hurricane seasons ever. The MDR is cooking right now and we might shift to Cool ENSO by the summer. 

A deadly combination 

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EPS, GEPS and GEFS all are in alignment (save minor nuances). 

 

Last chance. Any pushback and it's a wrap. 

7 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

Yes, the warmest EVER since time began! In the millions of years previously it’s never been this warm.


.

Sorry it's not as warm as when the Earth first formed. 

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

All the ensembles are going to that look today. Hopefully it happens 

Would be a real shock for everyone that thinks winter is done

However 82-83 is a top analog and that had one big storm, PDI

I feel like I haven't seen the sun in forever 

47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Few saw this coming

I mean the rate of warming is undeniable. It's also becoming normalized. 

People thought December wasn't that warm because it wasn't like 2015. 

Ok but it was still #2-3 all time. Sorry it didn't have +15 departures

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another winter with top 5 and top 10 warmth around the region to date. 
 

It's scary how normalized this has become. 

I feel like summer is a ticking time bomb for us. 

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

None of the storms this year had a huge ULL sitting over us 

If that's even the case

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Cold next weekend? All we got 

Feb 4-5 looks more interesting than I thought. It's worth keeping an eye on.

There's definitely likely to be a southern stream storm but the evolution up here is what will be tricky to figure out. 

Of course it also wouldn't shock me if the Carolinas or even further south ended up getting more snow than us so far with that system.

Really unorthodox setup next week. Not sure how that's gonna play out.

Funky setup nonetheless 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why do you only post about rain and warmth ? Weird.

Troll, don't feed

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

I hope they all rain down there in the tropics

They probably have better odds of seeing snow than you do in the coming pattern. 

72-73 was one of the analogs for this winter