SnoSki14

It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already.

There's just too much troughiness out west. 

Some people never learn. 

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course not but people shouldn't downplay what the models are showing right now .

 

Bluewave is just telling it like it is. I know many don't want to hear it but  the airmass is definitely marginal. 

He's just illustrating the challenges. I would honestly be surprised to see much for the coast. 

I'm not a fan of this pattern. You still have very deep troughing out west which can easily overwhelm any -NAO/AO pattern. 

I think it's a waiting game until February when Pacific improves.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More confluence with a better track. All the models got rid of the Miller B idea.  

GFS looked like crap though. Not enough dynamics to overcome warm surface temps. 

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest run of the UKMET so far and even warmer than the CMC.

I'm guessing the inland track is your thinking with this. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big ticket(s) in a few weeks.

February could rock imo. Potential is great.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll take my chances 

We'll break our streak one way or another. February could be very wintry imo. 

Anything this month will be a bonus

Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it.

With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat. 

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

Not a terrible look but the trend is not our friend 

Yeah this is a rainstorm. Keep the shades closed for the coast til February. 

Getting a significant snow event to the coast with a trough out west like that is unheard of. 

I expect further N&W trends so that the coast is mostly rain. At this point snowfall this year for the coastal plain will be relegated to February when the Pacific should improve. 

GFS with a nice weenie run

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Snow mean  on the eps is 7 inches for nyc in the next two weeks 

Still would rather be in New England though. 

Not a fan of that Pacific pattern 

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th. 

Would be nice for those trends to continue 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We have chances this month which is all I can ask for at this point.  I think NYC snowless streak will end this month if the h5 look is correct going into mid month 

It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. 

It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose 

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Increased water vapor from the volcano combined with cleaner air due to reduced aerosol and sulfur pollution has rapidly accelerated the warming, this is fact and not debatable

I doubt the volcano had much of an effect. The aerosols sure. It also doesn't help that we're lagging big time with renewables and clean energy. 

I think coal outputs reached record highs actually 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Okay. 

If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent. 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like plenty of chances with cold around and -nao for January…

Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer

Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. 

I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. 

Still the key will be that 4th system. Perhaps the poor Pacific will allow that one to keep amplifying 

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That's not a bad look

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

23 years ago this storm - believe this was prior to the wright weather boards and the old weather boards (NE)

Dec 30, 2000 pre New years eve storm

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/WSS20001230.pdf

The storm that kicked off 2 decades of amazingly snowy seasons and killed the rut of those rough late 90s winters.

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This isn’t a horrible look but it’s definitely not a slam dunk major snowstorm look either 

Cold is dumping west and that's a smoothed out look. Probably would see more ridging in the east.

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave handing out L’s to every forecaster on this forum 

Which means that day when he finally forecasts snow, it's definitely going to snow. 

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies have punted that classic Nino look (Aleutian low/+pna) into February now. I think the typical Nino backloaded winter is in serious trouble. After p3 the phases are warm in the east for Nino January 

So zero snow this year?

And it's not just us, it's the entire CONUS

You know its bad when so far this winter is starting out much worse than last year at this time (temp wise). 

And we had like 2" last winter. 

I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. 

I just wish it wasn't so rainy. 

February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.