SnoSki14

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This extreme subtropical SST warming leads to a semi-permanent -PDO +AMO pattern with amplified subtropical ridges.

Crazy warm SSTs off the East Coast. Could see some homegrown tropical systems later this season. And with all that ridging some of them could be steered west. 

Big bust here

New Brunswick killed the line. Was very gusty for a while though 

Heat without activity is a bore. It's the cold/dry equivalent 

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

we've lived through a bunch of summers that were hotter than 1966

I'm pretty such a boatload of summers since 2010 were are a lot worse in terms of intensity and duration than any older summers. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models starting  to show a retrogression pattern. A piece of the Plains heat may try to come east in early July for a few days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But if the ridge axis remains west, then it won’t be nearly as hot as this last week was. That would follow the more historic precedent of no follow ups above 103° so soon. So maybe 95° to 99° for a day or two before the ridge pulls back. Then it’s possible that the WAR retrogrades in mid to late July with more 95° to 100° heat here. But hopefully nothing as strong as we just saw in late June. 

I hope we don't repeat because that was brutal. Working outside was not fun those days, I don't know how southern folks deal with this 

Models go for another strong ridge after the holiday but it's centered SW of us vs directly over and then it retros west. 

If that holds true then we'll avoid another 100+ stretch. 

Could this be our CC induced summer from hell? Maybe

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Or not ... but there are some super synoptic flags that slope in favor of warmer than normal, CC footprint not including.   

Really? I see some ridging out west and a sort of meh pattern for us. Doesn't look extreme in terms of heat especially in comparison to recent stretch 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That was such an intense and long lasting heatwave, I wonder when we'll get something like that again.....

We're having it now. The longevity, the temperatures, the heat index,  the mins. This is by far the hottest June stretch on record in the northeast 

27 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think this will end up being our hottest stretch of the summer. The extended looks warm to borderline hot, but does not look exceptional. I’m fine with that, but honestly I will take anything if it means the back door gunk is done for awhile. 

I don't think we'll beat 100-105F readings with 130+ heat indices. Coming stretch looks more what we're used to and quite active. 

Some models brings us down to the 60s Friday (for highs) which sounds nuts with the heat now 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, it will be in July, like it usually is.

If they hit 100+ it'll be difficult to hit that again especially if our monsoon like climate emerges in the summer. Weeklies show a flat ridge with a focus out west 

That plus peak sun angle makes me strongly feel this will be our hottest period of the summer 

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Amazing to think we can go from this to backdoor drizzly gunk on Thu and Fri. GFS is back to strong easterly wind misery those two days. 

I can't wait. It's going to feel amazing compared to this sauna garbage 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think it makes you feel better, because it just gets more humid.

Tomorrow will be much better with no sea breeze and temperatures over 100 for everyone and dew points in the 50s.

I doubt dews will get that low but real feel temperatures should be lower vs today 

We're all going to be at 90+ by 10AM at this rate 

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Clouds through 4PM and still made it to 90 here, in most placed even with almost a full day of clouds forecasts highs were only missed by 6 - 8 degrees.  Had we partly cloudy/ sunny conditions - highs would have over performed in my opinion.

 

 

Temps may over perform tomorrow then. Widespread 100s

38 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Once the sun comes out (we'll see when) maybe 1/2 itll be off to the races and we'll see if we hve some kate 4/5PM highs.

 

Cloud magnet strikes again 

This coming heat dome is very powerful. Even with the rain/clouds holding temps down, it still wouldn't surprise me if everyone hits 90F late day. 

HRRR shows a tropical steam bath this afternoon 

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

may end up mainly cloudy most of the day looking at the satellite.

For parts of NJ yes. We'll have to see how things are by 1PM. Things clearing rapidly east though 

Looks like NJ will get its remnants 

Not surprising to see a MCS ahead of the heat dome. Could help ramp up the dews heading into Mon-Tues so higher heat indices. 

But yes today's high temp potential will probably get capped at least 

I think someone hits 105

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

It's 91 here right now. Doesn't feel too bad out there with dewpoints in the low 60s. 

That'll change in a big way 

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

99 percent of Liberty’s posts are insane and ridiculous

Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. 

That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. 

Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. 

Some 110+ heat indices have to be in play. 

Also likely the hottest temps of the summer. Weeklies shift ridge further west (drought region) with more of an over the top look for July. 

Less extreme heat, more typical hot/humid type stuff