SnoSki14

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Damn no one knows what today is 

C'mon that was barely trying 

The SE ridging will basically help trap this cutoff for days. We'll probably get 2-3" easy out of this.

Models have a strong secondary inland now that's trying to mix a strong LLJ down.

But inversion would make it tough to get strong winds

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Geez...GEM is even further south.

Not backing down. Do you think it has a clue?

For God's sake that thing even gives my region in Jersey 6-10" of tree crushing snows. 

So is the CMC on crack or what?

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails…

 

I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions 

Agreed but it's hard to deny what's going on. 

Looks like another 2" of rain on tap. Luckily it's spread out but it won't help. 

Drier pattern hopefully coming after this wet stretch.

1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

One can easily toss the CMC

Gfs trended in that direction with a more strung out system initially.  

I don't think you can discount it completely 

There's a lot of time left and things will continue to evolve. I predict a historic outcome.  

This is a highly unusual scenario for early April

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hi CMC 

The storm comes out in multiple phases and it's the last phase of it where we see the bowling ball like capture that leads to the CMC solution. 

GFS is further north with it so no good.  Very slim chance of CMC verifying imo. That would be a historic outcome.

46 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Even if we just get remnants of a tropical system that makes landfall to our south on the east coast or along the gulf coast that can still bring with it a whole slew of problems i.e. flooding, gusty winds etc. 

Hello Ida

Doesn't help how saturated we've been

Dangerous combo, probably a very wet, hot summer, a lot of severe weather + extremely active hurricane season 

As a severe weather enthusiast I can't help but get excited while also recognize the potential dangers

Nam/Rgem not being amped at their ranges could mean more south shifts. 

Wouldn't count coastal SNE out at all

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is we? CT had 12-20”

North of CT

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These don’t trend south . Remember that

The February storm did. We got your storm.

38 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Thankfully zero signal for that on ensembles. Matter of fact quite the opposite. Big ridge forming in the E after the breakdown of the NAO block

I'd rather wait a couple more days but yes that's the signal right now. 

Probably a scary harbinger of a brutally hot summer if we do see 80s in April. Seasonal forecasts and a Nino to Nina transition point to a brutal scorcher. 

59 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

40s and rain, talk about a horrendous weather week.  Looking forward to the 2nd week of April when we'll see a big warmup to the 70s. 

Anyway I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. 

Unless we see an omega block form

It's hard to get a 30 high in winter let alone April nowadays. 

Would be interesting to have this trend south and impact us but we know that'll never happen.

Instead it's going to be a dreary, cool and miserable few days

41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah for us (the NYC metro region) heavy rain and strong winds will be the big story IMO. Still a very impactful storm like you mentioned regardless of precipitation type.

It'll be fun to track. Hoping for something intense and historic

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...these individual runs are producing some love at first sight eye babe solutions ..

that GGEM is a ceiling storm

South trend continuing?

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs made a jump towards the euro solution 

Clearly a south trend right now. GFS could give us some snow showers at least. Cold aloft and surface in the 30s

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we hit the 80’s by mid-April

Ridging is north with lower heights in SE Canada. 

Onshore flow will still be an issue. Water temps east of us aren't very warm either. 

No 80s 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AC will be humming by the end of April 

Severe weather season hopefully will start early 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I get alot 

Long range clown maps don't count 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Who cares

Snow is snow 

But do they really want April snows? I guess a 97 type novelty is interesting but otherwise it probably sucks outside the mountains