SnoSki14

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So much for the weekend snowstorm fantasies lol

Nobody thought this lol 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only the warmest first 17 days of Morch at all sites on record. Warmer than 12

The fact that's happening without days and days of 70s and 80s is scary. 

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This weather stinks 

This is what normal mid March weather is supposed to be like 

And it's not even raining so you're fine 

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, even in this climate we’re almost guaranteed another couple of freezes outside the city. 

That's going to be a bigger problem down the line. Very early blooming only to get damaged by unusual late freezes. 

Looks like multiple freezes and even hard freezes likely just outside the city and immediate coast coming week.

Should put a damper on any early blooms and leafouts. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really that cold- -5 in late March is 45-50.   It will feel like an ice age after the last few weeks though!

Exactly. 40s and 50s are much colder than 70s

And I think the wetter scenarios win out. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully the Euro is correct and the recent drier pattern continues into next weekend. But the models have been all over the place with storm tracks. NYC only needs another 2.00” to make it a top 10 wettest March.

 

Persistence points to wet weather 

Very active and much colder 2nd half of March likely. MJO swinging to colder phases. 

March will finish+4 on top of the highest normals. 

If March ever goes even -1 people will think the ice age has arrived 

The problem with climate change is that it's a slow process so by the time reality hits it'll already be too late.

However the recent acceleration could shift perspectives a bit. 

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

Go warm and ridgey and you'll win 9 out of 10 times 

The climate is different, people need to accept it. 

I think we get hit hard this hurricane season. These SE ridges are bad news 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the coldest departures forecast to be to our west again later in the month, it’s possible that the last freeze in NYC was on March 1st. But even if they get down to 32°, doesn’t look like any hard freezes in the 20s will happen again this season.

What does EPS show

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Remember how March was going to be cold and snowy?  Instead 0 snow and a +10 temp departure.    

This summer will be one for the record books I think. Already a hot start all over the globe and the transition to a Nina means very hot summer likely. 

Probably extremely active too

Record hot summer coming?

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Typical +11.3 here so far

Scariest part of climate change is how quickly things get normalized. 

This winter and this month is far from normal. 

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next winter will be brutal down here. Should be better in NNE 

Who knows at this point.  A high ACE Nina is actually a good winter signal here. 

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive warmth. 
 

 

 

Scary summer coming up. The warmth is already off the charts. We're accelerating now

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weather looks awful after today. Rain chances every other day 

At least it'll be mild 

I think we're going to see a very active spring & summer. 

Lots of tropical threats 

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. This warmth is both abnormal and unsettling. Today, Wausau’s high temperature demolished the all-time February record by 9F (5C). February records go back to 1896. 

That outcome was made 3 times more likely by climate change.

I fear how bad this summer will be globally plus the likely hyperactive hurricane season 

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

does this mean it's going to be sunny?

can't be that warm and cloudy and raining lol

 

Doesn't look very sunny. Lots of clouds and rain likely 

39 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

LR gfs op looks great, wow

GFS has a hurricane off the SE coast in early March...wild 

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Because this season didn’t act like a canonical strong Nino unless you consider 1972-73 which also had a -PDO, but that season has a big SE snow event which we haven’t had. There’s also often a strong Gulf of Alaska trough/vortex which we haven’t had. We had huge Arctic intrusions into the Plains/Rockies in Jan when usually they would be warm and Nino climo would have us colder. 

These ENSO events will have less influence as the climate continues to warm. 

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

And it doubles down this run. 

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

At 16” for the season this winter moves from an F to a C-, assuming that B is an average season and we are halfway to average. If we get another advisory level snowfall we can bump this up to a C+

This death band did save the season from being one of the worst but it was still a pitiful winter.

Well above normal temperatures (top 5 warmest) and a couple snow events won't change that. 

D+ right now 

Unless we get a KU storm I don't see it ranking better than a C-

11 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

The crazy thing is we had about 11” here in Hillsborough with almost all falling between about 1 and 5AM

One of these days we'll get a 4'+ blizzard. Climate change assisted snow bomb. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes…in 4 months.  

90s by April