RUNNAWAYICEBERG

It’s down to 41 now so we heavily bet the over quickly before the number climbs before kickoff.

He runs the board so people like him do run the world. Look at his boy Trump, prime example.

Yea I saw eps and even the gefs backed off the AK vortex idea too. I guess I meant if troughing persisted there next 2/3 weeks, we would have a different SST look.

Well, I’m not factoring last year though into my early tempered expectations for this year. No PTSD here. This is just my weenie observation but it seems lately patterns lock in longer and are more extreme. By that I mean the wet dewy summer of 2018 which continued wet into the winter. 2019 has been dry especially Aug and Sept. These are just quick examples but if the AK vortex is showing up now, I’m hesitant to think it will be easy to move come Nov/Dec. It may just be brief troughing in that region with the usual yoyo back and forth so this is all for nothing. I dunno, just discussing and trying to learn more.

Ah ha, makes sense Scoots. By month end we should see a change in the GOAK then.

A room for two with Robby Kraft?

Cautiously optimistic but I’m deff noticing a slight hesitation within myself to ride the AN snow donkey.

I continue not to like the look in AK as we head towards month end. I know I know, the pac looks good should lead to higher heights and it’s only Oct, etc but...I can’t shake this idea that patterns lock in longer these days and if the vortex sets shop, it’s an even more difficult pattern to erase.

The Upper Plains blizzard scaling back some too.

Getting crushed at home, jacked. What a waste of an over performer.

Nam liking sw ct with some 3” totals.

Could be our most prolonged and steady rains for the entire storm. Thur and Fri look spotty.

hrrr looks to have a good handle on this now but does it shred up as the day progresses?

Initial batch this morning looks a tad west of guidance.

It’s an ideal stall and inflow for SEMA. We’d have to get this so far west ie stall south of LI for this to be anything more....and based on WV, it looks right in line with every non nyc weenie’s forecast.

1-2” of rain with gusts into the 30s is nothing special for us. Don’t buy what they are selling.

No, they don’t. Most populated is Fargo at 105k which may miss out on the biggest totals anyway. Maybe if you combine all the people in END that will have difficulty by sleeping in and not having to go into work, you may reach 200k.

They do as do we but we deal with much more obstruction ie more difficult infrastructure, population, and geography (to start) so such a storm would have a significantly higher impact for us...no matter how well we prepare. Comparing us to them is silly. Is that clear enough?

Yup, thank you. Wiz is off the deep end worried about tree foliage on one tree in the middle of a 20 acre farmland.

It will have significant impacts and be anomalous, no doubt. But the upper midwest routinely deals with big fall and spring storms. You won’t get a gridlock on the roads or a mass transportation failure causing thousands to be stranded at a terminal. Maybe a cow perishes causing a price spike on the McDonald’s dollar menu.

Huh? What does any of what you say have to do with ND....

It’s happened before in the upper midwest and that area has a lot less trees too. How I would be prepared or how poorly CT managed in Oct11 has nothing to do with it nor can you compare the two.

People and officials in ND know how to handle winter weather.

They will crumble against Houston. Pitching >> Hitting in the post season. This storm will be fun to track but the east can have it. We’ll take the wintry ones in Dec instead.

Fall and spring can produce some prolific midwest snows. There seems be more moisture transport during these times for them while being close enough to canadian air.