salbers

Convection is now appearing on the north side of the eye as well...

A few overshooting tops on the WNW side of the eye now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

Super Typhoon Manghut has 175mph winds and headed to the northern tip of the Philippines.

Interesting in that paper that the Antarctic component is the part accelerating the quickest with about a 6 year doubling time. This component will thus become more dominant in the future.

This really seems like a hurricane billiards game in the 00Z GFS. The upper level high in the Atlantic with Jose and Maria being the players. Will be interesting to see how the models continue to evolve.

Compared with 00Z GFS run, the hit is farther north. This corresponds with more of a piece of the trough in the Rockies lifting out over the Great Lakes. It seems if we can get the trough to stay consolidated in the Rockies the downstream ridge would build up and steer it more south. This will be interesting to watch from run to run.

There is a September 2015 paper by Natalia Shakhova here that talks about methane fluxes and such from the ESAS: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2052/20140451

A bit off-topic, but here's some lower latitude methane sea floor escape too: http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/12/09/warmer-pacific-ocean-could-release-millions-of-tons-of-seafloor-methane/

It seems that CH4 would be spectrally active more as reradiation in the IR, thus solar radiation (and its angle) wouldn't much of a direct factor? CH4 does absorb some of the shortwave IR radiation coming from the sun though around 3 microns, so here it could have an effect, though I'm unsure which sign it has. On another note, I've seen a skeptical argument that methane has less effect when water vapor is present, since they absorb/emit at some of the same wavelengths. What's the story on that? I suppose that the absorption isn't saturated enough, thus increases in each of these gases remains important.

I saw a few minutes of this talk today, casting doubt on large ESAS emissions, in terms of a ship measuring CH4 well offshore in the Laptev Sea. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/annualconference/abs.php?refnum=107-150406-A Shakhova is also quoted in this paper on Carbon-Tracker Methane suggesting no strong trend in the ESAS yet if you read some of the details: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/8269/2014/acp-14-8269-2014.pdf

Here is a discussion of satellite methane emissions measurements in the Arctic in case it has yet to be posted: http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/system/presentations/files/44_Yurganov_rep.pdf

The Nature GeoScience paper is here: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2007.html Saw both an oral and poster presentation from Dr. Shakhova at the AGU conference this December. The poster was on how they are calibrating their remotely sensed methane release measurements using an actual controlled release from a gas tank on the sea floor. CONTROL ID: 1798329TITLE: NEW RESULT ON METHANE EMISSIONS FROM THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELFAUTHORS (FIRST NAME, LAST NAME): Natalia E Shakhova1, 4, Igor Peter Semiletov1, 4, Valentin Sergienko2, Leopold Isaevich Lobkovsky3, Nicolay Dmitrevsky3, Anatoly Salyuk4, Vladimir Yusupov4, Alexander Salomatin4, Victor Karnaukh4, Denis Chernykh4, Denis Kosmach4, Roman Ananiev3, Alexander Meluzov3, Dmitry Nicolsky5, Gleb Panteleev1INSTITUTIONS (ALL): 1. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States. 2. Institute of Chemistry, FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russian Federation. 3. Laborotory of seismics, Institute of Oceanology RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation. 4. Laboratory of Arctic Research, Pacific Oceanological Institute FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russian Federation. 5. Geophysical Institute, University Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States. ABSTRACT BODY: Methane release from thawing Arctic permafrost is one of the few carbon-climate mechanisms that could change projected climate forcing substantially in this century. Venting of methane to the atmosphere in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the world’s largest yet shallowest shelf, was recently shown to be ubiquitous. Here we report results of multi-year investigations performed in the coastal East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), where invasion of relatively warm seawater occurred most recently. Observational data and simulation of the warming effect of seawater on subsea permafrost suggest that disintegrating subsea permafrost allows formation of migration pathways for methane bubbles released from the sea floor. Sonar data collected in the coastal area and in the mid-outer shelf area together with data, obtained using high-resolution high-speed video camera, enabled area-weighted methane fluxes to be estimated. New factors controlling spatial and temporal variability of methane fluxes on the ESAS were found. In the outer shelf, it was shown that methane releases from the seabed via strong flare-like ebullition that produces fluxes much greater than on the shallow shelf, where largely frozen sediments restrict fluxes. The coastward progression of thawing subsea permafrost in a warming Arctic could potentially result in a significant increase in methane emissions from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. KEYWORDS: 0475 BIOGEOSCIENCES Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes , 1605 GLOBAL CHANGE Abrupt/rapid climate change, 3004 MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS Gas and hydrate systems, 4219 OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL Continental shelf and slope processes.(No Image Selected)(No Table Selected) Additional DetailsPreviously Presented Material: Contact DetailsCONTACT (NAME ONLY): Natalia ShakhovaCONTACT (E-MAIL ONLY): [email protected] OF TEAM: International Siberian Shelf Study The Discovery Article mentioned above has ESAS release presently at about 3% of the global total. However this could increase...

One thing I learned from Igor Semiletov at AGU is that there's a ground methane monitoring station on a peninsula/island at the Russian Arctic coast. This location gets a better fetch from the Arctic than Barrow apparently does. I'll have to look for any plots from this location. There's also a plot from a 4000km ship cruise through the northeast passage that shows methane averaging 2100 ppb. This is described in the 2010 Science paper and was measured in 2005.

Here are the three poster abstracts once again from S&S and their colleagues. Most fascinating to see the posters at the AGU meeting this past week and to talk with the authors. B21D-0411: Methane carbon stable isotope signatures in waters and sediments of the Laptev Sea Shelf Authors: Vladimir Samarkin1, Igor P Semiletov2, 3, Niko Finke1, Natalia E Shakhova2, 3, Samantha B Joye1 Session: B21D: Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change III Posters Section/Focus Group: Biogeosciences ( C53A-0817: NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EXISTENCE OF GAS MIGRATION PATHWAYS THROUGH SUB-SEA PERMAFROST IN THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF Authors: Natalia E Shakhova1, 2, Igor P Semiletov1, 2, Alexander Salomatin2, Vladimir Yusupov2, Leopold Lobkovsky3, Nikolay Dmitrievsky3, Victor Karnaukh2, Denis Kosmach2, Denis Chernikh2, Roman Anan'ev3 Session: C53A: Climate Change and Cryospheric Systems III Posters Section/Focus Group: Cryosphere © C53A-0818: DEGRADING SUB-SEA PERMAFROST AND SEDIMENTARY METHANE RELEASE IN THE SOUTHERN LAPTEV SEA, ARCTIC OCEAN Authors: Igor P Semiletov1, 2, Natalia E Shakhova1, 2, Oleg Dudarev2, Vladimir Tumskoy3, Denis Kosmach2, Vladimir Samarkin4, Samantha B Joye4, Alexander Charkin2, Boris Bukhanov3, Eugene Chuvilin3, Nicolai Romanovskii3 Session: C53A: Climate Change and Cryospheric Systems III Posters Section/Focus Group: Cryosphere ©

Sure Terry - it is on Solar Radiation Analysis and Forecasting in the "Weather Driven Renewable Energy" poster session. BTW, I edited my previous post with the latest AMEG press release.

Actually S&S presentations are in a poster session, so the "audience" will be those walking by the posters. Meanwhile, the latest Arctic Methane Emergency Group press release is here: http://www.ameg.me/ AMEG PRESS RELEASE: 2012-11-21 Abrupt climate change is upon us. Farmers are angry. Food prices will go through the roof. The government’s climate change policy is in tatters. The government should have acted years ago. Now it may be too late. The government is in the dog house, not for what they have done but what they have left undone. They have done much towards reducing CO2 emissions. The question is, will emissions reduction, however drastic, prevent abrupt climate change? The answer is ‘No’! The proof is that abrupt climate change is upon us. There has been an elephant in the room, and it has been totally ignored. It’s all about the Arctic sea ice. It’s about the Arctic sea ice, whose reflection of sunshine keeps the planet cool. Remove the sea ice, and not only does the planet start to overheat, but the whole climate is suddenly changed. The global weather systems, on whose predictability farmers rely, are dependent for their stability on there being a temperature gradient between tropics and the poles. Remove the snow and ice at one pole, and the weather systems go awry and we have “global weirding”. Furthermore, the weather systems get stuck in one place, and we get weather extremes: long spells of hot/dry weather with drought, or long spells of cold/wet weather with floods. This global weirding has started with a vengeance. The sea ice is rapidly disappearing. The behaviour of the polar jet stream is disrupted. Extreme weather events occur more often and with greater ferocity. And the food price index climbs and climbs. There is an obvious relationship between strife and food – if you starve a nation they will fight to get food. This relationship has been pinned down by an organisation called the Complex Systems Institute, CSI. They show that the food riots break out when the food price index rises above a certain critical level. An example was the Arab Spring. The current index is above the critical level. Because of extreme weather events this year, the index is expected to rise again in 2013. The UN’s food watchdog, the FAO, forecast that the index will rise even further in 2014. Meanwhile the insurance industry is worried by the trend towards greater number and strength of extreme weather events, including hurricanes. Note that Sandy’s cost was greatly amplified by the diversion westward as it approached the coast off New York. Sandy had hit a jet stream blocking pattern. The loss of Arctic sea ice is leading to this kind of unusual event become more frequent. The insurers are worried, but governments should be even more worried, because extreme weather events will drive the food price index even higher. So what can be done? That is the subject of AMEG’s strategic plan, to be launched on Wednesday, 5th December, 6 pm, in San Francisco in association with the American Geosciences Union meeting there. Venue is to be announced. For further information contact AMEG chair, John Nissen, [email protected], with subject line to include “AMEG launch”, phone +44 20 8742 3170 or skype john.nissen4.

Hard for me to say if the budget cuts are intentionally aimed at climate measurements, since there are pretty widespread cuts going on in NOAA. I will try to attend S&S's presentations as long as they don't conflict with something else closer to the "official" purpose of my going to the conference (e.g. my own presentation). I agree the context of their presentations and any audience discussion would be interesting. Steve

To be blind to the atmosphere is 'not good'... http://www.dailycamera.com/science-environment/ci_21453731/scientists-concerned-about-budget-cuts-boulder-based-air

I happen to think a 3C change is too much of a human contribution. And if the 50Gt noted in the ESAS were to be released the warming would be more than that. Kind of a gamble to totally ignore this.

Has this been commented on with the hemispheric methane imbalance we could observe? http://www.ameg.me/index.php/methane Dr. Ed Dlugokencky (methane monitoring head for the US federal government) said in a December 2011 interview that if the recent increase had been coming solely from the Arctic, he was fairly certain that science would have detected that by comparing measurements from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In 2007, excess rainfall in the tropics and excess warmth in the Arctic may have led to higher methane emissions from wetlands in both regions, and the excess tropical emissions probably continued into 2008. The methane level of the atmosphere kept rising in 2009, but the reason it did that year is a bit of a mystery. In 2010, excessive rainfall in the tropics may again have been a culprit. Results are still being analyzed for 2011, but so far it looks as though the increase has continued. The big question now is, will the atmospheric methane continue to increase.

Yes, they have (or are involved with) three abstracts submitted to the AGU Fall 2012 conference to be held in San Francisco this December. Depending on my own schedule at the conference I hope to be able to attend. Here is the AGU link and text for all of them (albeit with a small font): http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/scientific-program/ CONTROL ID: 1500396 TITLE: NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EXISTENCE OF GAS MIGRATION PATHWAYS THROUGH SUB-SEA PERMAFROST IN THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF ABSTRACT BODY: To assess whether sudden, large-scale releases are taking place in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) or are likely to occur in the future we investigated the migration pathway characteristics and identified controlling factors of methane (CH4) flux from the seabed, through the water column, and into the atmosphere. Evidence of the existence of migration pathways through permafrost is provided by seismic data, specifically as low-amplitude anomalies sometimes referred to as washed-out or semi-blanked zones. In the marine environment, widespread washed-out zones often have been attributed to gas hydrates. In permafrost, low seismic amplitude may also result from variations of physical properties or property changes associated with development of deep taliks. The most prominent features of the seafloor morphology associated with the bubble releases observed in the mid-outer shelf (water depth >30 m) were morphological features that could be attributed to gas release from permeable/unconsolidated sediments: pockmarks (PMs), PM-induced erosion channels, collapse depression, and features related to mass wasting and sub-marine sediment slides. Acoustic anomalies observed in high-resolution seismic images obtained in mid-outer shelf reflect large volumes of free gas ascending within highly permeable sediments, so-called “gas curtains” and “gas blankets”. Where such acoustic anomalies were observed, we detected very high concentrations of bubble seeps, which appeared not as single bubble streams (i.e. individual bubbles released continuously) that were mostly observed in the inner part of the ESAS, but as columns of bubbles (termed flares) rising to the sea surface. One of the most prominent morphological features observed in the ESAS (water depth <90 m) was associated with temporal gas releases was caused by ice scouring. The effect of this scouring is the creation of a long linear furrow that follows a relatively straight line and extends from only a few tens of meters to many tens of kilometers in length. In the ESAS, ice scouring penetrated up to 8 m deep into the sediments, and where surface sediments are underlain with gas fronts, gas releases have occurred. Since shallow gas fronts appeared to be a ubiquitous feature observed over the entire ESAS, ice scouring provides an important mechanism in the inner and mid shelf, allowing CH4 to escape from the sediments to the atmosphere by avoiding slow diffusion and aerobic oxidation in the sulfate-reduction zones. Additional pathways for CH4 release from the inner-mid shelf could be provided by completely submerged thaw lakes, underlain by taliks, which formed on the Siberian coastal plain prior to inundation. A number of such lakes have been transformed into sea lagoons or left seabed depressions in the ESAS interpreted as a typical thermokarst terrain landscape similar to the terrain of the Siberian Lowland. In such areas, we observed so-called “gas columns,” which are characteristic of locally permeable sediments (within taliks), or gas movement within low-permeability sediments observed as “gas plumes”. CURRENT SECTION/FOCUS GROUP: Cryosphere CURRENT SESSION: C004. Climate Change and Cryospheric Systems INDEX TERMS: [0475] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes, [0428] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Carbon cycling, [1621] GLOBAL CHANGE / Cryospheric change, [3045] MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS / Seafloor morphology, geology, and geophysics. AUTHORS/INSTITUTIONS: N.E. Shakhova, I.P. Semiletov, IARC, Univerrsity Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; N.E. Shakhova, I.P. Semiletov, A. Salomatin, V. Yusupov, V. Karnaukh, D. Kosmach, D. Chernikh, Laboratory of Arctic Research, VI Il'ichov Pacific Oceanological Institute, Vladivostok, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; L. Lobkovsky, N. Dmitrievsky, R. Anan'ev, , PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; SPONSOR NAME: Natalia Shakhova CONTACT (E-MAIL ONLY): [email protected] TITLE OF TEAM: (No Image Selected) (No Table Selected) CONTROL ID: 1482929 TITLE: DEGRADING SUB-SEA PERMAFROST AND SEDIMENTARY METHANE RELEASE IN THE SOUTHERN LAPTEV SEA, ARCTIC OCEAN ABSTRACT BODY: There remains substantial uncertainty regarding several aspects of CH4 release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). To accurately predict future CH4 releases, we must understand the size of the reservoir (the amount of trapped CH4 that potentially could be released: hydrates, free gas, modern production), as well the processes that have kept it trapped and those that control its release. The main results to be considered here are related to permafrost stability and biological methane production: 1) Are changing ESAS thermal conditions causing the permafrost to thaw? 2) Do accelerated rates of permafrost degradation lead to development of taliks that act as CH4 vents to the overlying seawater and to the atmosphere? 3) Does biological CH4 production occur in permafrost and the overlying sediments? 4) How do CH4 oxidation rates compare to CH4 production rates? To address these questions, in April of 2011 and March-April of 2012 we drilled five boreholes (with depth up to 58 m below sediment surface) in the seasonally ice-covered eastern part of the shallow shelf, east off the Lena Delta, where specific geochemical and geophysical surveys were conducted in summer 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The study area includes three main types of sub-sea degradation and talik formation: 1) fault zones, with significant upward heat flux, 2) areas impacted by a river, with downward heating effect, and 3) background areas (with more-or-less stable sub-sea permafrost). Therefore, we can extend the obtained results to the entire ESAS. The thermal regime at different sites differed significantly between sites. We did not encounter sub-sea permafrost at four sites from five. At site located east of the Sardahskaya channel of the Lena River mouth the temperature along the borehole was positive and increased from 0.5C in the sediment upper boundary layer to 2.7C at 15 m depth while the temperature at the freezing point deviated between -.08C and -1.3C, decreasing with depth, assuming the salt content in pore water equals 12-15 psu. That temperature distribution indicates the existence of an open talik at this site that is impacted by the Lena River heating effect and anomalous geothermal flux in the axis of the Ust’-Lena Rift. High concentrations of CH4 and non-CH4 hydrocarbons and free hydrogen were found along the sediment cores. An important feature of the vertical CH4 profile is a maximum at ~4.5-5 m depth associated with a sharp acoustical reflector which is spatially correlated with the existence of the ancient dried soil layer rather than with the permafrost table, as was stated previously. Seismoprofiles made during our 2008 and 2011 cruises covering the entire shallow ESAS area showed the sharp acoustical reflector (and blanking zone beneath) in the upper sediment layer which we associate with the existence of a gas front (GF). For the first time this hypothesis has been validated by drilling and CH4 measurements. An electromagnetic survey accomplished at 15 fast ice stations and analyzed jointly with the seismo-profiling data demonstrated the existence of deep “talik-like” roots at sites with wide GF zones accompanied by an anomalously high concentration of dissolved CH4 (and air CH4 in summer). It was shown that the sediment CH4 production plays a negligible role in the observed dynamics of dissolved CH4 in the study area. CURRENT SECTION/FOCUS GROUP: Cryosphere CURRENT SESSION: C004. Climate Change and Cryospheric Systems INDEX TERMS: [0475] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes, [0490] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Trace gases, [1621] GLOBAL CHANGE / Cryospheric change, [4820] OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL / Gases. AUTHORS/INSTITUTIONS: I.P. Semiletov, N.E. Shakhova, IARC, Univ Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; I.P. Semiletov, N.E. Shakhova, O. Dudarev, D. Kosmach, A. Charkin, Laboratory of Arctic Research, Pacific Oceanological Institute, Vladivostok, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; V. Tumskoy, B. Bukhanov, E. Chuvilin, N. Romanovskii, Geological Department, Moscow State University, Moscow, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; V. Samarkin, S.B. Joye, Microbiological Lab, University Georgia Athens, Athens, GA; SPONSOR NAME: Natalia Shakhova CONTACT (E-MAIL ONLY): [email protected] CONTROL ID: 1503641 TITLE: Methane carbon stable isotope signatures in waters and sediments of the Laptev Sea Shelf ABSTRACT BODY: There are a number of areas characterized high water column methane concentrations and active seafloor methane seepage zones along the shelf of the Laptev Sea. Degrading subsea permafrost, which is rich in organic carbon and possibly containing metastable methane gas hydrates, is considered a potent source of methane in this area. To better understand possible methane sources generating high methane areas of the Laptev Sea, carbon stable isotope signatures of water column methane and in surface and deep drill core sediment samples were obtained during summer 2011 and spring 2012 field campaigns. The δ13C values of methane dissolved in seawater at the drill site varied from -37.8 to -75.7 ‰. The range of δ13C values of methane in the surface sediments was from -51.3 to -58.2 ‰ and in drill core samples (up to 26.5 m depth) values ranged from -77.8 to -100 ‰. Methane carbon isotope signatures in seawater reflect various sources of methane and the influence of active aerobic methane oxidation in seawater and surface sediments. Significant depletion of methane from drill core with δ13C (to -100‰) is characteristic of hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis at cold near 0°C in situ temperatures, which was confirmed with δ14C-radiotracer rate incubations. CURRENT SECTION/FOCUS GROUP: Biogeosciences CURRENT SESSION: B069. Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change INDEX TERMS: [0429] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Climate dynamics, [0456] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Life in extreme environments, [0475] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes, [0490] BIOGEOSCIENCES / Trace gases. AUTHORS/INSTITUTIONS: V. Samarkin, N. Finke, S.B. Joye, Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; I.P. Semiletov, N.E. Shakhova, , International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK; I.P. Semiletov, N.E. Shakhova, , Pacific Oceanological Institute, Vladivostok, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; SPONSOR NAME: Samantha Joye CONTACT (E-MAIL ONLY): [email protected] TITLE OF TEAM:

I guess only pretty general budget information can be found in this NOAA summary around page 450-460. http://www.corporate...NOAAFY12_PB.pdf Carbon Tracker is mentioned in the FY2013 document on page 3-52 in a request to increase the budget. Carbon cycle and the Arctic is also mentioned on page 3-50. Carbon tracker is kind of a selling point, though it clearly needs high quality observational data to realize its potential. http://www.corporate...13_Web_Full.pdf

Here is the full text of the abstract I've been referring to... Monitoring and Detecting Arctic Greenhouse Gas Budgets: The Importance of Long-term Surface Observations and the Role of CarbonTracker-CH4 L. Bruhwiler1, E. Dlugokencky1, K. Masarie1 and C. Sweeney2 1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305; 303-497-6921, E-mail: [email protected] 2Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 Vast stores of organic carbon are thought to be frozen in Arctic soils; as much as 1,700 billion tonnes of carbon, several times the amount emitted by fossil fuel use to date and about equal to known coal reserves. If mobilized to the atmosphere, this carbon would have significant impacts on global climate, especially if emitted as CH4. A recent study suggests that permafrost carbon climate feedbacks have had profound impacts on past climate, possibly driving the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 Million years ago. Model studies project that by the middle of the 21st Century, the Arctic will be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. NOAA/ESRL, Environment Canada, and other agencies have collected observations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Arctic and the rest of the world for at least several decades. Analysis of this data does not currently support increased Arctic emissions of CO2 or CH4. However, it is difficult to detect changes in Arctic emissions because of transport from lower latitudes and high inter-annual variability. Arctic surface emissions are also especially difficult to detect from space, and current satellite platforms do not provide useful information about GHG budgets in the lower Arctic troposphere. Modeling/assimilation systems, such as NOAA’s new CarbonTracker-CH4 system can help untangle the Arctic budget and trends of GHGs. CarbonTracker-CH4 has shown success in simulating the inter-annual variability of Arctic fluxes, and it is able to distinguish Siberian fluxes from Boreal North American fluxes. We address the plausibility of monitoring the Arctic GHG emission trends. How large would Arctic emission trends have to be before they could be identified in network observations? What spatial information could be recovered? How would the spatial density of observations affect our ability to perceive and attribute trends in Arctic emissions? Could emission have already been increasing during the close of the 20th Century? Trends in emissions need to be large before they can be discerned in network observations; our calculations show that emissions of methane must increase by at least 5TgCH4/yr to be seen in a 10-year observational record. Long-term surface observations of GHGs are crucial to monitoring the fate the vast and currently frozen Arctic soil carbon reservoir. Figure 1. Daily average of the pressure-weighted mean mole fraction of methane simulated by CarbonTracker-CH4. Units are nanomoles of CH4 per mole of dry air (nmol mol-1), and the values are given by the color scale depicted under the graphic. Gradients in CH4 concentration are due to exchange between the atmosphere and the earth surface, including fossil fuel emissions, emissions from agriculture and waste, wildfire emissions, and emissions from wetlands.

On a related note I was considering going to the GMD conference in May, however I recall being pretty busy around then (in my more weather related day job) and I didn't see too much on methane in the agenda. I was even wondering if S&S would show up. We should consider encouraging them to do so at next May's conference, or even to give a seminar at GMD at another time. My main suggestion for now is to contact the authors of the abstract I mentioned earlier (post #702) about methane monitoring. Are there any labor type issues in addition to the electric bill? It seems to me that the community is more focused on the arctic land emissions of methane and may not all be aware of S&S's work (as noted in this abstract and others). The trick is that the ESAS emissions may not be that large in the global methane budget right now, but need monitoring to be on top of the trend with ongoing and future developments. Is the recent global uptick in methane due to the ESAS, or emissions in other latitude zones? NOAA is working on a so-called methane tracker (extension of carbon tracker) to help with this. I'm unsure what time scales it operates on. I certainly like to look at the hourly data, though it could be a challenge to model this with sparse locations having the high temporal frequency. Almost seems more suited to some type of case study or statistical analysis where we try and gain insight into plume sources associated with the transient events. Yet more data will always help in some fashion. We might ask whether the already observed transient events correlate with wind trajectories. Are these ESAS emissions, or some land source (even from drilling?). Funding for monitoring has been discussed for a long time - always an interesting challenge in a large gov't organization within a constrained global economy and following political influences. The congress has been cutting climate and weather in general and may not consider or appreciate the details about Barrow vs. Mauna Loa. I will note that Mauna Loa in general has support being one of the longest running monitoring stations. The folks at the NOAA/ESRL level would probably be more familiar with these types of distinctions between stations, compared with congress. So perhaps the more feedback various people get on this the better? At the moment I'm on vacation so that's a short term factor for me.

Maybe I'll get some insight on this at some point. Off hand I'd suggest that before going too far with the conspiracy theories there have been lots of issues with budget cuts in our lab. It would be interesting though to find out the rationale for the details of these cuts. Additional email inquiries might be useful potentially as well.