Lightning

Awesome thanks for this!!!

If you look up Spicers Cider Mill on Clyde Rd. I live a bit NE of it. We spent all day cleaning up. Still have some work to do tomorrow. When I can get back online (not on my phone) I will post some pictures.

We are wondering if there was a funnel or small tornado came through. Damage is not uniform / similar direction. Some areas it is one direction other areas different direction. There looks like a path as some houses on the lake are not even touched even though they have willows and cottonwood trees (no damage at all) while we have maples that are 1/2 gone now a willow that was leveled by us. Likely will not get power back until Sunday at the earliest. AT&T tower is out so me cell service is sporadic (no sure when this will even post).

Yeah. That happened to me earlier this year when there was a tornado warning and I wasn't home but my family was. You feel helpless

That was one intense storm. Large tree branches down all over the place. Lost power as I watched one of the branches take out the power lines at my neighbor's house (100' away from my house). Watched my kayak and paddle board fly up in the air and into the lake. Power of mother nature is just awesome. Tomorrow is going to be a big clean up day!!! I'll need to find my kayak and paddle board. . Thankfully I have plenty of gas for the generator.

Well made it to 83.3F. Warmest day of this heat wave

There we go. Lower MI Severe Storm Watch

Hey the warm front is here!!! I might finally get above 82F.

WI and LM ... Sadly not Lower MI yet

I was on the northern up edge. I could tell many cells were basically initiating right over head. I got several 10 second huge rain drop downpours tons of brilliant CC lightning overhead but only ended up with a bit over an 1" of rain. I would have loved to have gotten that that 7.36" total. So close but yet so far . It was definitely enjoyable last night

Love this weather!! Feels great to me. Yep as expected the sun is pushing into southern MI mostly SW MI and extreme SE MI. As SPC points out: Visible satellite imagery has shown significant erosion of the stratus across southwest Lower MI as the differential heating zone becomes an effective warm front amid strong southwesterly surface winds. Dewpoints are now in the upper 70s with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s across southwest Lower MI. Temperatures are still in the upper 70s/low 80s farther north and east, with lower dewpoints there as well. Even with the more moist and warmer conditions, some convective inhibition currently still remains across southwest Lower MI, evidenced by the billow clouds on visible imagery. Additional heating, coupled with low-level moisture convergence over the region, may be able to overcome this convective inhibition, promoting warm-sector thunderstorm development. There is some uncertainty regarding this scenario, but any warm-sector storms that do form would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.

Firing east of Ludington now

Looking back this particular run by the HRRR was pretty darn close (of course not perfect) to what happened

One concern I have is the cloud cover is not burning off very fast at all. Most of southern MI is still cloudy and it is 3PM. I was hoping the sun would be out a bit more by now across southern MI.

SPC upgrade the tornado to 5% for this area:

If you get a chance watch the satellite loop. Interesting/fun to see the holes opening up so rapidly.

Got an 1". Area just (couple miles) to my south got 2-6" with some flooding but I didn't see any significant on my way to work (just some large yard puddles and ditch flooding).

Last night was definitely modeled better than the previous night. I think it has to do with the storms were already ongoing last night while the night before the most of the models were too quick to develop convection making an MCS in MI that just didn't occur.

I really like the set up going into this week. This is the perfect set up for prolific rain totals. Little bummed MBY somehow only got 1" while most surrounding areas got 2-6" as DTX warning mentions. A 10" rain event would be incredible. As it is 6" is a ton of rain!! It is going to be interesting to see how the rest of today goes as right now the radar is still firing some stuff up.

Looks like you in Columbus got more than I did out it. Ended up with 1.04" according to my rain gauge. Heaviest rains were just to my south by just a few miles. Hartland (I am just north of Hartland), Brighton to Milford area likely got 3-5". Lightning was nonstop strobe light for good 3 hours. Had about 4 good strikes around MBY with the initial couple cells that went though. The CG shifted south with the heavier rains unfortunately. It was nice to at least get something.

Have fun. Not sure if anything is going to happen here . I going to get some sleep since nothing is firing to my NW.

Near continuous flash coming from that cell now to my east. Charlie Brown doesn't hold a candle stick to me with bad luck

The cell developed just to my east. Saw one flash from it. Hopefully it will continue to develop north and west.

Keeps showing it triggering in Wisconsin. This is where I am struggling to buy into it. We'll see in the next few hours what actually triggers.

Been watching the clouds starting to form right overhead as they are feeding into that complex. To my west was mostly clear and to my east mostly cloudy the past few hours.