Hurricane Agnes
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Everything posted by Hurricane Agnes
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Looks we are at or close to landfall in RI. It's hard to tell (at least on doppler) due to all the convection.
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Here was NHC's 8 am update that I had been waiting on after their 7 am downgrade (still slowing and down to 16 mph, direction change to NNW, pressure holding) -
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You can see the southern boundary of the fire hose has been drying up. The question would be whether the returns that are west will move around as a pivot as the storm continues to lift to the north.
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Will have to see if that band pivots any further south. I'm up to 1.39" for the day so far although the rate is very light/misty at the moment. This plus yesterday's 0.07" has me at 1.46" so far for the event and now at a whopping 8.31" for the month of August, with 10 days left, an not even at the peak of hurricane season!
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Looks like a spotter in Mercer, NJ has reported just over 5" of rain so far.
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Looks like NHC dropped it back down to a Tropical Storm at 7 am. NHC 7 am Update (winds dropped to 70 mph and now back to a TS, speed slowed to 18 mph, but pressure deepened to 986 mb) -
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Will have to see if the pivot maintains the moisture funnel as it seems Mt. Holly was suggesting it could start drying up by the western-most parts as the system lifts to the north. What is throwing the wrench in nailing how it sets up is the ULL south of here that is helping to feed moisture up this way.
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So far this morning am continuing to get on and off light to moderate rain and am currently at 1.33" for the day (1.40" for the event). My low of 71 (so far) is happening now as my current temp, with dp 71. You can see the fire hose of moisture on radar.
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I saw a post from someone on a different (non-weather related) forum who lives in Memphis, give a heads up on that excessive rain event in central TN (I think south of Nashville).
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Am wondering if it eventually pivots around to pass over you once it landfalls and briefly starts heading to the west before swinging back east again.
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Looks like the more east solution appears to have been correct as the cone has been moving back east. Will have to see where the band pivots. Now have 1.08" in the bucket at about 1/3rd in/hr (1.15" total for the event). Not getting much wind though.
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I just hit the 1.01" mark for rain as I'm on the SW side of the deathband but still getting the moderate rain. When the light returns began here yesterday before I went offline, I had 0.01" in the bucket. As of midnight, ended up with 0.07" total for yesterday and am now at 1.08" at post time, for the event.
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NHC 2 am update (continues to strengthen a tick to 987 mb, now moving N and has sped up to 21 mph) -
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Looks like I'm finally getting light drizzle - at least enough to wet the street and walks but not enough to tip the bucket yet. And the steamy windows have commenced! NHC 8 pm update (has now strengthened a bit with pressure down to 988 mb but everything else is steady as he goes) -
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I'm seeing an interesting sunset - which is due to the fact there is a sunset as it has been overcast all afternoon. I am guessing because the bands are moving in from the SE, opposite of where the sun is setting. Even though the radar is showing some returns over me, it's like virga (at least so far). Currently 76 with dp 73. Mt. Holly retweeted WPC's latest -
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LOL Was about to post something similar. GMTA! I love GOES-16 "truecolor" band. The resolution is just amaing and you can see some wild stuff that goes on in the atmosphere like is happening here.
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Actually made it up to 84 today (at about 2:15 pm) thanks to the sun during the morning and despite the gradual hazy and later overcast skies. It's currently a "tropical" but cloudy 80 with dp 73, and is a bit humid and stuffy out.
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NHC 5 pm Advisory (continuing to hold NNE and 991 mb, but has now further increased forward speed to 18 mph) - And as a side note, Hurricane Grace has officially "dissipated" over south central Mexico as of 5 pm EDT.
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Yeah have been watching that and it has been steadily moving from SE --> NW towards the river.
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I love finding sites (I try to bookmark them) that have all sorts of stuff to play with. For example this site (has microwave gifs of tropoical systems) - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_08L/web/mainpage.html I think some think they might be useless but I think they are cool visualizing the position and movement of a system.
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I was looking at the mid and lower level vapor sat images and there's dry air trying to get into the circulation of Henri from the west and Henri is literally jammed up against a "wall" of shear on the eastern side. So you can actually see what looks like a pipe funneling clouds up here.
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NWS 2 pm Advisory (holding steady on the same trajectory but has now sped up to 17 mph, with pressure holding at 991 mb) -
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It actually has an eye-looking formation appearing on vis sat. And yeah, the models have been suggesting whatever would be an equivalent to a Fujiwara between it and the Low south of here with the two of them taking a road trip together up north. I think that Henri just got caught in some kind of flow that has been accelerating the speed since it is going faster now as of the 2 pm update.
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You can see the moisture feed flowing right up here. The radar is showing some kind of returns over the Toms River area but I'm not sure if there is actually rain going on there or not.
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Hrrr still soaking the area through tomorrow morning.
