Hurricane Agnes

I think today may have been my coldest high for the season so far at 36, after a low of 23 this morning. The big story was the dp departures, dropping down to a 14. I did pop out briefly this morning to see the Full Cold Moon that was setting. It was definitely brisk out. Currently 35 and clear (as we head for sunset and coming up on what will be the next to to the longest night of the year), with dp 16.

Hope you enjoyed it. The desert heats up quick but also radiates pretty quick at night. That area is on the bucket list. Since you were gone, I had 3 days with flurries (11/29, 11/30, 12/8).

There was a nor'easter Oct. 25 - 26. I live in the Wissahickon Watershed with smaller creeks and main stem tributaries that feed the Schuylkill River where the drinking water comes from for where I live. Much of the city's infrastructure is older than a century (in fact there were 3 main breaks last week literally a few miles from where I live which thankfully only resulted in a water pressure drop at my house but complete outages closer to the breaks). I regularly monitor the USGS gauge for the Wissahickon (at the mouth) where it flows into the Schuylkill and during those excessive rains and flood events, have posted the charts. We are only in December. The temps of the ground and the nearby HUGE phenomena known as the Atlantic ocean, doesn't really chill down until months from now, even if there are occasional arctic intrusions earlier in the winter (and even those would need to be sustained to get the ground temps down to what they might be by late January into February). And I doubt if you have ever seen me post about a SECS event. I just monitor the various weather events that come through all year. I know what I posted may have appeared to be "too long" but the very first map was showing the drought conditions as of December 14 (and was posted on December 16th). There is no indication of drought in the LV based on that. The only area showing drought conditions was south-central PA - You can go to the sites I linked to and do various time periods. The Cornell site has this for the last 30 days (attached at the very bottom of the post next to the nor'easter sat image from Oct. 25 - 26) Not sure why you are not using the resources that are out there to show what has progressed over the past 6 months. I am a retired ACS-certified chemist and at least take advantage of the internet as an amazing resource! You had this happen as of early September so by now, the levels may be back closer to normal and getting dry - https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/news/2021/09/how-high-will-lehigh-valley-waterways-get-when-will-the-water-reach-its-peak.html But climatology in this state dictates certain times of the year when it does get dry and when it happens in the fall, the remnants from tropical cyclones (or non-tropical nor'easters) usually swoop in to save the day, although not 100% of the time.

Going into fall,we were above normal here in metro Philly thanks to a rainy summer and then the remnants of Hurricanes like Ida. The latest PA drought monitor map is showing this as of this past Tuesday (taken from here and selecting the state) - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx I I know that through today, I've had 0.80" and last month (Nov.) I had 0.89". But in Oct. I had 6.08", Sept. 8.57", Aug. 10.78", Jul. 3.93", Jun. 5.75", & May 4.06". So quite a bit of precip down here preceding the late fall period (some of which came from Ida remnants). YTD I have had 53.21" (including snow melt in the bucket), which is insane. So if you look at May - Nov. after which the spigot turned off, you see this trend - Cornell's NRCC drought monitor seems to align - https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/drought/drought.html It is also reflecting the dry up the past couple months so the question would be despite having the surface dryness now, whether the ground water is still somewhat charged from the summer.

The MJO (GFS/GEFS) to MJO... Most of the models are showing that hanging in Phase 7 but as soon as it moves to 8 it will be game on. At least Alaska's permafrost in parts of the state, is getting a refresh since it has been decimated by years of above-normal temps there. Currently 39 and overcast, with dp 37 (a far cry from yesterday's low 20s after the cold front passage) and have 0.13" in the bucket from the showers this morning.

We had the below happen last Christmas. Pretty cool sat image, but the result (from my last year's sig) - 12/25/20=Trace (flurries) (you're trying though ) Climate change is real - as a note, when this year is done, it will be 27 years since the last time a below 0 temp was recorded at KPHL (1994). IMHO, the models are having a hard time with their algorithms deciphering/factoring in the changes in climatology.

CPC/NCEP put out their most recent ENSO forecast last week - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Their 3-month outlooks issued today - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ (sorry ) We'll see if any of this verifies.

There was a front-end thump and then it changed over to a sleet fest, finishing off as a freezing rain special that compacted the snow and left it with a frozen crust. In fact, I had saved a copy of my sigline with the events recorded from last year and I had this - In other news, there were 3 RERs issued today - Finally... I made it up to 61 as a high after a low of 47 and for a change, the sun was out pretty much all day (didn't cloud up like it did yesterday). The big difference today as well was the dp - no longer in the low 20s but up in the 50s. Currently 56 and clear with dp 48.

I have 37 snapshots of the doppler radar images from the storm (I usually do one about every 1/2 hour) and the LSRs reported by the program come and go on the maps over time. I have one from a couple hours later that is showing what may have been around the Bloomsburg area reporting a 12" as an example.

With departures like that, if some low did fly off the coast, it could become sub or extra-tropical, gaining a warm core, particularly if it gets cutoff from any front.

Possibly because of this -

I still have some slides somewhere of me and my younger sister standing in front of the garage door holding shovels and sporting our new Yogi Bear snow boots surrounded in snow!

This! We got the leftovers that fizzled coming across here last night but OMG. As an obs, my high may end up being 47 and it's currently partly sunny and 46 with dp 22.

Latest RERs from Mt. Holly for Dec. 11 - So far I bottomed out to 40 this morning and have crept up to 41 with dp 28, which is a far cry from yesterdays 60 dp. Ended up with a total of 0.26" of ran yesterday as a combo of the morning and evening showers.

Getting some strong wind gusts coming through attm so this may be the front. Temp is down 58 and dp is way down to 50 and falling. Still getting some light rain (with 0.26" so far today).

Getting moderate rain, just over 1/4"/hr - 1/3"/hr but nothing extra windy beyond what has been going on the past couple hours. Looks like the line broke up over me. Not picking up any convection either. Have 0.25" total in the bucket so far. Temp is 60 with dp 59.

STS issued.

Looks like the convective line is reforming as it is approaching the area. Am getting some light rain here (had 0.10" earlier this morning from the morning round) and am now up to 0.12" for the event so far. Temp is 62 with dp 59.

There's a Wind Advisory up for the entire state and I have been watching the line as it moves across and it looks like it has diminished a bit but then it might do its final downsloping as it approaches the area by maybe midnight, and re-fire into a stronger line. SPC DY1 has us still as "marginal" - And I agree that it has been pretty gusty the past couple hours but the temps have held in the mid-60s too. It's currently 64 with dp a juicy 61.

Handful of RERs so far - My high so far today has been 64 and it stayed overcast the entire day, so no sun to heat it up. It's currently 64 and overcast with dp 60.

Still overcast here but temp is up to 62 with dp 59. You can see the convective line just west of Pittsburgh with some antecedent band...

Got some dense fog here early this morning (vis. ~1/10th of a mile) until now, when it's starting to lift with the temps increasing. Low was 44 around 3 am and temps have been rising since. Currently overcast with stratus and mist and 55, with dp 54.

SPC put the area in a marginal risk for DY2 -

Maybe reflecting that the NAO is progged to go neutral or slightly negative in the long term (10 - 14 days).