Hurricane Agnes

Had a high of 60 so far today with changeable skies this afternoon (including occasional breaks of sun) after a low of 52. It's currently 59 with dp 54 and overcast. There are some spotty returns on the radar well ahead of the cold front.

Mt. Holly just lofted the Warnings and Advisories -

Here is the last tweet -

Tradition for me growing up was to turn on the Mummers on New Year's Day and start dismantling Christmas - all stuff down and packed away on New Year's Day (which is what I did here yesterday although the rain postponed the parade until today... but the lights and wreaths were taken in very early before the rains started up). I kept some "seasonal" artificial plants around the house though. When I checked in here and saw there were 33 replies, I figured something was up and some legit threat had apparently been spotted. I could actually hear the Ji fireworks going off up here. Regardless, I ended up with 1.02" of rain for yesterday's total and have an additional 0.11" in the bucket this morning (total 1.13 for the 2-day event so far). Looks like the precip. is pretty much done for now though. Currently misty and 52 with dp 52.

Have gotten heavy rain out of the band coming through (upwards of 1"/hr). This is probably the most in one event in awhile. Sure drought-buster. Currently moderate rain and 55 with dp 54 and 0.79" in the bucket.

Okay. Thank you for clarifying the range because I know last year with La Nina, it was whacked out and I expect with the stronger Nina this year, it might still be whack until deeper in the season .

Didn't you decide to toss that, I think last year (or maybe it was not valid between October and December but was post-December or...?) Am currently at my high so far for today of 55 (with low of 50) and the rain is coming down at a light to moderate rate with 0.49" in the bucket so far with on and off rain since earlier this morning (the heaviest being in the past hour or so).

Happy New Year all - currently 50 and a dp 50 with some fog/mist as the stratus has started to descend.

Fog finally lifted although there is still some stratus around but the moisture being wrung out this morning was enough (between 6 - 7 am) to tip the bucket in the gauge. Currently overcast and 49 with dp 48.

What might start to impact the cycles is all the development that has gone on in Chester County over the past 30 years as farmers have sold land to developers and people have shifted to "exburbia" again (and by "again", it had been a "thing" but then recently started reversing before the pandemic as the Millennials started moving into lofts and whatnot in the urban areas). But the pandemic (and work from home options) apparently triggered a return to the less dense but soon-to-be-more-dense parts of the state including Chesco). It took awhile but once they got rid of the (traditional) office tower height restrictions in downtown Philly in the 1980s and many dozens of buildings were constructed that far surpassed the height of the William Penn statue atop City Hall tower, we still haven't had a below 0 temp registered at KPHL since 1994. This doesn't mean some strong PV lobe will never ooze down far enough to break that record run, but it's now been 27 years. I made it up to 53 as a high (after a 43 low) and even had some sun this afternoon. But the air has still been relatively juicy with current temp 48 and dp 47.

I noticed my snowdrops have sent up a couple inches of leaves (they aren't normally making an attempt until maybe during a February thaw or the end of February). I had been looking at NOAA's NCEI 30-year "norms" update data introduced this past May here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/noaa-delivers-new-us-climate-normals where you can start digging into the data from here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals and there is a "quick access" link here - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/ There are a bunch of stations in the dataset but for those that (I am guessing) have data back at least 30 years, for Chesco for example, Honey Brook's 30-year is this - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-annualseasonal&timeframe=30&location=PA&station=USC00364047 Just something to throw out there (I know there are many data sources around). Mt. Holly joined in on the (almost) dismissal of that but haven't made it a "zero chance" yet in this morning's AFD. So far I have 0.24" in the bucket this morning and it's currently overcast with some stratus and mist and 43 with dp the same.

Still nada here, not even a flake. Looks like it has mostly dissolved. Currently overcast and 38 with dp 28.

My sis in Upper Darby just texted that it was snowing where she is. Am not seeing anything here in NW Philly yet but looks like something might be incoming soon. Currently overcast and 37 with dp 27.

Some stuff incoming although the temps here IMBY are marginal at the surface (currently 35 with dp 26). It was partly cloudy earlier but it is clouding up some now. As a note, I made it up to 52 yesterday after a low of 36.

'Nuff said! The above is an excellent news summary (and obviously PR piece from PGW) about that winter. The year of the long johns too and where wool sweaters/socks and puffy down coats and vests became a thing. I remember after that and the next couple winters, we ended up getting a kerosene heater (and had found a gas station not too far away that sold kerosene).

Ehh... it was a typical Bing Crosby WW2 musical thing. They contrive a plot with buddies who are performers who eventually attempt to revive/open an entertainment venue. It was a nod to Crosby's "Holiday Inn" (which released 12 years earlier), where the songs "White Christmas" and "Happy Holidays" actually debuted. Some of the quips in the movie reminded me of our little group though, including one where Crosby saunters up to the lodge desk clerk and starts a conversation with "We came up here for the snow. Where're you keeping it?" and she replies "Well we take it in during the day". Ugggghhh... and I was on SEPTA to get to/from high school and living here with the hilly streets meant either no buses showed up and/or showed up but were packed to the point that people were smashed against the doors and it had to bypass my stop and/or we would have to get off and walk up to the top of hills along the route, and then get back on once there because the bus couldn't make it without sliding back down. That was the year of the glacial streets and walks. I know our ice chopper got much use and the station wagon had to use chains a few times. The temps here have been wavering with the warm front and have gone up and down (high for the day appears to have been 54, assuming the non-diurnal warming is done for now) and am currently getting a round 2 of very light, with temp at 52 and dp 50. Picked up 0.05" earlier and am now up to 0.07 with this latest round.

I finally decided to watch the above movie for the first time last week and LOL'd at the plot of a pair of former WW2 buddies who became big time entertainers after the war and ended up meeting and following a pair of sisters (also performers) who were heading to a Vermont Ski Lodge (later found to have been owned by the guys' old WW2 CO) right before Christmas for their next engagement. Upon arrival, they all thought they had boarded the wrong train (musing about whether they were in North Carolina instead) because there wasn't a flake of snow anywhere in the area. In Vermont. In late December. The laments sounded like those here, although for Vermont, that would have been a righteous outrage. It did eventually snow right on queue. Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas and winter holiday. Currently light rain and 41 with dp 40.

That was the awful season of the ice storms - I recall counting 17 in all. The entire tri-state area had run out of salt - both road salt and consumer halite. They eventually had convoys coming down from NY to provide some for the road crews. People were down to putting sand (if they had any) or kitty litter out. I actually had to go on a work trip to Baltimore (via Amtrak) during one of them and drove to 30th St. Station (parked there for a few days) literally just as the latest storm was underway. I was about to go on the Schuylkill Expressway to eventually get to 30th St. figuring PennDOT would be keeping that cleared but decided to go past it instead and took one of the river drives into the city. Thankfully I did because they eventually closed the Expressway and people were trapped there for at least 8 hours. When I finally got to Baltimore, I was able to find a couple bags of salt and brought them back with me in my suitcase for my mom. She ended up being the only one on her block the rest of the winter with her sidewalk clear and dry to the pavement. Currently partly cloudy out and 40 with dp that has gradually crept up to 36.

I thought this Mt. Holly tweet was a hoot - I do know with marginal temps even down where I am, north of here with that precip will mean some icy roads. Just heard on KYW traffic report that Jersey was starting to treat the roads (most likely up in the north).

Dusting out there on the coldest surfaces (mainly cars). Seems the heaviest here may have been around 2:45 am. Currently 33 with dp 24.

Back-loaded winter. I know we have had frosts as late as the 3rd week of May.

I had saved my old sig line and had this - Biggest event was 1/18/20 with 1.20" IMBY. Total was 2.47". I did make it up to 45 for a high today and it's currently 37 with the dp crashing through the day and now down to 20.

My low this morning was 34 but am still hanging in the 35 range. Got 0.01" late last night and another 0.17" deluge this morning for a total of 0.18" for the event. Currently 35 and clearing with sun peeping out and dp 34.

I know you guys know about this but a well-placed SSW event that breaks up the PV is one variable that can trigger a change. There was a nice discussion about the one that happened last January here - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-polar-vortex-early-2021 I haven't had chance to dive into the current placement of systems at the moment, but conditions that would make that circumstance more favorable were noted in that discussion - I'm thinking that nothing has really been "persistent" because the northern (PAC) jet has been progressive and moving things along fairly rapidly. Interestingly enough, there was a significant SSW over the Antarctic back in 2019 that was analyzed and discussed - https://news.mit.edu/2021/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affected-northern-hemisphere-0722 But as rare as that type of event is in the Antarctic in comparison to the ones that happen in the Arctic, apparently another SSW was underway AGAIN in the Antarctic this past August - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-hemisphere-winter-stratosphere-warming-event-fa/ I haven't found any updates on the results of that yet. So there are all sorts of things going on that introduce more uncertainty to what the models are trying to accomplish for forecasting and the jury seems to still be out regarding whether a SSW in the Arctic might ever occur in the near term.