Hurricane Agnes

Will have to see how many of us (and when) we get into the warm sector (0z NAM is icy but am wondering if that is overdone).

Well the models may be saying that but they aren't using them verbatim for their guidance. They use a bunch of other things including their blend model (that RedSky calls the "scapple model" ). So for the 0z NBM, you get this -

18z EC looks ugly for ZR.

WPC's afternoon update earlier today -

The Warning criteria is at least 5"/6" snow and/or sleet, and is also based on the designated certain amounts expected over either a 12 hour period or over 24 hours.. The Ice Storm Warning has its own amounts needed to qualify... The ice storm Warning is pretty significant icing - they actually have one up over on the western side of the state (lofted by State College's WFO). What often happens with these overrunning storms with marginal temps here is that the warm air comes pouring eventually and the estimated time for continuous icing might not make the 24 hour min.

This was the afternoon update from Mt. Holly -

Currently overcast (even though there are some scattered radar returns over me, it's virga at the moment) and 33 with dp 18.

I know the short-range models are probably better for this timeframe but since the 18z GFS is running, I grabbed what it has. It has been echoing the other guidance pushing the heaviest precip to the N & W.

State College WFO put up an Ice Storm Warning earlier this morning for portions of west central PA.

Now getting ZR. Temp bopping between 31/32.

12z HRRR continuing the trend of the higher precip to the west.

Getting a mix of sleet and snow. Not really getting anything sticking yet but I am guessing that this is chilling the ground and exposed surfaces. Temp at 32 with dp 20.

Was just about to post. Just came in after putting my Polar Shield thingy over my car windshield. Currently 32 with dp 17.

12z NAM a bit icier.

12z GFS keeping the heaviest precip to the west.

Okay. Some of those returns looked a little more "intense" (in quotes) so was wondering if any of it was making it to the ground. I know the dp down here IMBY is 17 (temp 32), so the air is fairly (although not excessively) dry.

12z NBM sticking with the NAM idea.

Haven't played with Bufkit in awhile but just for the heck of it (skew-t).. NAM-bufkit-skew-t-2022-02-24_9-48-43.mp4

Okay thanks! Was hoping one of you guys up there would chime in on the radar regarding whether that was just vaporware returns.

What is interesting is that they were capturing the little antecedent precip that is on the radar at the moment! Am curious if any of that is making it to the ground or is just virga.

This was the 6z (last full) HRRR -

6z EC a little drier in the east.

Latest from Mt. Holly -

6z Canadian weigh-in (more of the same).

6z NBM guidance.