Volcanic Winter

I don’t, the main event I remember from 2009 was later in December. Was in Long Branch at the time for a year and got absolutely crushed by that Dec storm. Had just started dating my wife and she was over that night and all I remember was digging out for hours. Later in 2010 I was up in North Brunswick through Boxing Day and the rest of that winter. 09-15 are the best winters of my adult life, and what I have the fondest memories of. 2016 was good for the HECS but don’t remember anything else of note and it was warm, which I hate.

I had a Norlun down here in 2018. Was pretty cool. https://weatherworksinc.com/news/norlun-trough

I’m not really one for emotionally reasoned aphorisms, what’s possible depends on the meteorology and that changes with the patterns. Not every March is the same, not every pattern is the same, not every storm is the same. What I’m not suggesting is to over-invest in any one event, but rather try not to close mindedly assume outcomes are ironclad which I’ve seen a lot of this winter across all eastern forums. Dud winters happen, and this is certainly a dud winter. But that doesn’t invalidate the potential for something positive to happen the next two weeks if the meteorology supports it. Just how I view things.

Tip's thoughts on Euro from his thread:

Was having issues with the comment editor above, posted that from Typhoon Tip on NE forum in his own topic on the storm. Some very good info and analysis in there.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml The positive phase https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_map.shtml And then here for a bit more info https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/

Brooklyn watching the models today: Lol, nah stay the course man. Thanks for staying on top of this with so much commitment, whatever happens.

And the Euro is back to a coastal, .

From PSU on the M/A forum: 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and… The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. but wait check this out… the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific.

It’s okay Forky, maybe we just need to learn how to appreciate a good high qpf 45* rainstorm. @George001just mentioned how he appreciates a good windy rainstorm, maybe this dude is simply ahead of his time and a proper weenie of tomorrow.

For any gamers here, play RDR2 and hit the northern highlands. Incredibly beautiful. Spent more hours up there hunting and just exploring than I care to admit. I mean what's the difference, right? Digital blue = digital blue.

Like because I respect your positivity and optimism. Unfortunately for me if a storm doesn't result in the dawning of a new 48 hour stadial I become rather apathetic.

<3

It’s also cathartic to see the southern ridge get metaphysically annihilated.

Gotta try not to get sucked into the run to run variance at this stage. I kind of agree that with a loaded setup like this, you kind of have to trust the features to ultimately deliver. Doesn’t mean they will, but you have to hope that’s the case at least. If we can’t get a coastal / snow event with this kind of setup, man… I’ll defer to PSU on that.

The northeast megalopolis bombs are always the most exciting, at least IMHO. Really hope this ends up as something that leaves as few out of it as possible, assuming one of these waves becomes reality.

Why aren’t temps projected to be colder as we head into mid month with a pattern like this? Looks decidedly around average or slightly below, which seems odd to me. Not asking at all with respect to the storm and I’m not asking if it’s cold enough to snow, just talking general temperatures for March. Seems like we should be seeing more of a strong BN push with some days at least scraping the 30’s, no? With the SSW, -NAO, and all the other elements favoring a colder east what is preventing actual cold (a couple to several degrees BN at least)? Just wondering looking at everything. Doesn’t mean anything but my monthly Accuweather temp forecast looks very meh for such a pattern. Last year even we had a couple March days colder than anything I’m seeing forecasted now with highs in the mid 30’s and lows in the upper teens (ignoring the storm, just focusing on temps in general, trying to make that clear, and my apologies for asking this kind of clumsily - wasn’t sure how to phrase).

Yeah, I'd take that. Excuse me while I go have a cigarette.

Absolute nuke. That's bonkers. We should only be so lucky.

Thanks, was focusing too much on surface temp and didn’t check the 850’s. That does look great and looks better than what we saw all winter. So the surface will cool with a coastal low ripping snow from cold low/mid levels basically.

Just curious about temp expectations if the favorable heights progression occurs. Looking at 3/13/22 for example here in Hillside and we were 35/21 on the day. Would expect we’d need to see temps move in that direction and start to adjust lower as we move forward? Just curious and asking, not suggesting an issue.

Alternative title: Revenge of the Weenie I especially love that one for the epic duel between Nosnowbi Juan Niñaobi and Anafront Snowwalker.

Nothing like good old-fashioned NJ ‘cookies n’ cream’ snowpiles. Just beautiful!