arlwx

DCA Lattest 2018 precip totals are 55.90. No wonder the weeds are still growing.

The actual date would be the 11th. NWS is calling for RIC to hit it. It's warmed up to 31F at DCA, so close call. What a switch since 11 Oct.

I just went by lower Four Mile Run in the upper Arlington/Alexandria boundary. Water was flowing over the trunks of trees (normally high and dry even in rain). The USGS rain gauge near DCA showed about 1.5 inches of water in this latest rain episode, but no flooding. I drove 35 in 45 mph zones due to all the ponding of water in the roadways. Hydroplane city, folks.

LWX now including that 4-letter word in their Saturday/Sunday forecast. (snip)Friday into Saturday, the upper level ridge to the north will start to break down as a upper level trough builds into the Tennessee River Valley and the Smokey Mountains. A broad upper level trough will be positioned over eastern Canada and northern Maine. The upper level trough over Tennessee and Kentucky is forecast to broaden and expand further southward into Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to a tapping of the warm and moist air from the Gulf Mexico. The models are pointing to a low pressure system forming over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and moving east to northeastward toward Florida and Georgia early on Friday. This low pressure system is expected to get caught up on the east side of the upper level trough and move northward along the eastern sea board. Both the 00Z GFS and Euro agree that a coastal storm will form and move northward along the east coast. The GFS takes the upper level trough and kicks it eastward forcing the coastal storm further off the coast while the Euro keep the trough further inland over Arkansas and Tennessee. The Euro is wetter and faster than the GFS. The Euro brings the coastal storm northward and moves precipitation into our region by 18Z (2pm) on Friday. The GFS brings the outer bands of precipitation into the region around 6Z (2am) Saturday morning and remains further off the coast leading to lesser rain event. Both models agree that some semblances of precipitation will likely occur on Saturday with there being a chance for precipitation starting sometime late Friday afternoon into evening. The 1000 to 500mb thicknesses seem to indicate that this weather event should be mainly a rain event with some snow potential late Saturday into Sunday for the higher elevation areas. A slight warm up will occur Friday into Saturday as winds become more southerly. Sunday, the coastal storm will shift further northeastward out of our area. Some lingerings rain and snow showers over the higher elevations will be possible on Sunday. The GFS tries to bring a secondary cold front Sunday afternoon while the Euro tries to keep this boundary mainly dry.(snip)

Update: IAD hit 31 at 3 am.

More freeze warnings towards Richmond. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 813 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 VAZ048-062-064-509>511-220815- /O.CON.KAKQ.FZ.W.0003.181022T0600Z-181022T1200Z/ Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover- Including the cities of Goochland, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 813 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... * AREAS AFFECTED: Parts of Central Virginia northwest of Richmond. * HAZARDS: Freezing Temperatures. * TEMPERATURES: Lower 30s. * TIMING: Early Monday morning. * IMPACTS: Crops and other sensitive vegetation may be killed if left exposed. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

2 am temps: DCA 43 BWI 36 IAD 34 RIC 37

LWX note about where yesterday's freeze was: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018 ...GROWING SEASON ENDED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THEREFORE, THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED, AND FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED THIS YEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: EASTERN AND WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY MD CLARKE COUNTY VA EASTERN AND WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY VA FREDERICK COUNTY VA PAGE COUNTY VA ROCKINGHAM COUNTY VA SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA WARREN COUNTY VA BERKELEY COUNTY WV EASTERN AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTY WV EASTERN AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTY WV EASTERN AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY WV HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV HARDY COUNTY WV JEFFERSON COUNTY WV MORGAN COUNTY WV $$

For what it's worth, LWX is featuring a link to their winter weather page. Featuring a chance for flakes in the Monterey VA area through Sunday morning.

2 am roundup: DCA 45 BWI 38 IAD 38 RIC 42

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours. With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States. Michael should then become an extratropical low by day 5. The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States, exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today. 2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

New flood warning: Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 458 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2018 VAC059-061-153-683-685-281300- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0390.180928T0858Z-180928T1300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA- City of Manassas VA- 458 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... East central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 900 AM EDT. * At 455 AM EDT, automated stream gauges were reporting flooding of streams and some low lying areas. One to two inches of heavy rain overnight is driving stream rises.

New flood watch up, as well as the previous flood warnings: Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 239 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 DCZ001-MDZ005-503>506-VAZ036>039-050>055-502-506-508-271445- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0006.180927T2200Z-180928T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, and Wintergreen 239 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, and Northwest Montgomery. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Southern Fauquier, and Stafford. * From this evening through late tonight * A wave of low pressure will ride northeast along a stalled front later today and tonight. Several inches of rain is possible, and with the ground already saturated, flooding is possible.

http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/openhouse/ I don't know if they will still hold it if Florence shows up around here- maybe NWS Sterling will post any updates.

USGS recorded that Four Mile Run and Cameron Run (Arlington and Alexandria) both exceeded flood stage early this morning. More flood warnings are up for Fauquier, Fairfax and Prince William as another batch of storms forms up.

Looks like the cell west of Fredericksburg will get north of the 395 mixing bowl just in time for crush hour.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-015-033-043-047-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-085-091- 097-099-101-103-107-109-113-125-133-137-139-153-157-159-165-171- 177-179-187-193-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-840- 280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0314.180727T1750Z-180728T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CAROLINE CLARKE CULPEPER ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA FREDERICK GOOCHLAND GREENE HANOVER HIGHLAND KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUDOUN LOUISA MADISON NELSON NORTHUMBERLAND ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$

TS watch just posted for the area.

Got almost an hour of strong rain near Crystal City, till some rain and thunder about. The rain gauge at Four Mile run picked up about an inch of rain in 40 minutes. update: At 7:52 pm, DCA recorded 1.37 inches of rain during the hour of the event.

From AKQ: (snip) .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Attention turns to the srn stream system currently over SE TX for tonight through Sat. The operational models have trended toward a (slightly) more amplified system (the past 24 hours)...allowing more pcpn to be thrown back to the NW. RA likely will be the dominant ptype in ern/SE VA and NE NC...while SN is favor far NW. In between...the battle line will be drawn (basically centered along a line from SBY-RIC-AVC). The more amplified the system...the more potential for warming (in the mid levels)...though w/ marginal thermal profile/cold air in place...more QPF doesn`t necessarily mean more SN accum. There are differences in thickness/thermal profiles from model to model...and since there has been no cold air up until now...any SN accums difficult to determine...and P-rate/SN-rate likely to determine whether there is any impact on roads. The arrival of the upper level system on Sat may be enough to aid in cooling the column (w/ better UVM)...and bring a higher potential for SN across the FA (esp from central VA to interior lower SE MD). For now...will be holding off on any winter headlines (after coordination w/ nearby offices). Also...will have a rather wide zone of mix RA/SN centered along a line from AVC-PTB/RIC-XSA-SBY from tonight into Sat. Forecast SN accums 1-4 inches over the piedmont in VA to far interior lower SE MD...up to 1 inch to an EMV-PHF-OXB line. RA may mix w/ or end as little SN near the coast in ern/SE VA and over NE NC as pcpn diminishes (W-E) Sat afternoon through Sat evening. Cold but dry Sun w/ highs around 40F. (Lows Sat night m-u20s inland...l30s right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC). (snip)

Calvert just got added to the WSW. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 427 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 MDZ018-071730- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170107T2000Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170108T0000Z/ CALVERT- 427 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW ON ROADS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 427 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 MDZ017-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170108T0000Z/ ST. MARYS- 427 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW ON ROADS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$

Now a confirmed one... Tornado WarningSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX601 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015TXC071-201-291-311115-/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-151031T1115Z/CHAMBERS TX-HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-601 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT FORNORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...EAST CENTRAL HARRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTYCOUNTIES...AT 600 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SAN JACINTOSTATE PARK...OR OVER LA PORTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. AT 550AM PASADENA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A TORNADO AT GENOA AND REDBLUFF ROADS IN PASADENA.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BAYTOWN AND HIGHLANDS AROUND 610 AM CDT. BARRETT AROUND 615 AM CDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO ABASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 535 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 AM CDT * AT 535 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PEARLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... SOUTH HOUSTON...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...ELLINGTON FIELD AND EDGEBROOK AREA AROUND 545 AM CDT. CLEAR LAKE AROUND 550 AM CDT. DEER PARK...MORGAN'S POINT AND HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AROUND 600 AM CDT.

I have some unfond memories of how long it took to break into my car in 1994. A selling point for remote car starters.

Agreed. I was around in Fairfax VA for what I call GW 1979 and it was miserable with icicles as thick as my arm dangling from the roof. What a surprise. ((IIRC, the mets blew the forecast, but they didn't have all today's toys.)) Jan 96 in Woodbridge was less bad for me. ((If anyone looks, the mid-February Federal holiday is STILL officially Washington's birthday. The term President's Day did not start coming into common usage until after MLK Day became a federal holiday in 1986 and some states gave up Lincoln's Birthday as a holiday in exchange. I call the Feb 22-24 1987 KU storm (a surprise to me) GWII -a quick foot plus of snow that melted within a couple of days.))