arlwx

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

GFS is claiming next chance for a freeze may be Halloween morning.

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning. DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39. But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th; Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas of frost. * WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Frost advisory for tomorrow outside the DC beltway. Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas of frost. * WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

LWX posting freeze warnings out to the west for the 19th. Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Clarke-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frostburg, Cumberland, Winchester, Berryville, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 30 to 32 degrees resulting in widespread frost. * WHERE...Western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and the northern Shenandoah Valley. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Basically, if it doesn't rain on Tuesday, these are the totals.

From the latest from LWX: (snip) .CLIMATE... Here are the rankings for driest Septembers on record. Washington, DC area (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, DCA) 1. 0.11 inches (2019, so far) 0.11 inches (2005) 3. 0.14 inches (1884) 4. 0.20 inches (1967) 5. 0.32 inches (1977) 1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 3.72 inches Note: Weather records for the Washington, DC area have been kept at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) since 1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to 1945, and additional precipitation records observed in downtown Washington, DC extend the period of record back to 1871. Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, BWI) 1. 0.09 inches (1884) 2. 0.15 inches (2019, so far) 3. 0.21 inches (1967) 4. 0.32 inches (1906) 5. 0.35 inches (2007) 1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 4.03 inches Note: Weather records for the Baltimore, MD area have been kept at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) since 1950. Additional precipitation records observed in downtown Baltimore extend the period of record back to 1871. Sterling/Dulles VA area (Washington Dulles International Airport, IAD) 1. 0.15 inches (2005) 2. 0.33 inches (2019, so far) 3. 0.62 inches (1967) 4. 0.78 inches (1978) 5. 0.93 inches (2014) 1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 3.92 inches Note: Weather records for the Sterling/Dulles VA area have been kept at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) since 1960. (snip)

LWX needs to check the 3 day obs pages. At 335 am, all of those pages were reporting the just-before-6 am obs! Somehow, I think a programming glitch has moved the listed times ahead three hours. ((The "more local weather" summary had the correct times.))

Finally back to a computer. Almost got flooded out in an underpass on a 395 SB ramp, but somehow I swam the car through in the wake of an SUV. Going where it went. I got to the Harris Teeters in Shirlington, parked, went up to the fourth floor- and saw Four Mile Run over its banks and maybe 5-7 feet below a triple tree near that intersection. USGS was registering it at 8460 cubic feet a second, higher than anything in the last 120 days by far. Gage height 15.06. Accumulated precipitation almost 3 inches. Cameron Run got to 13200 cubic feet a second, 15.61 feet (any fish on the Beltway?). DCA appears to have reported 3.35 inches.

In contrast, at 5 am DCA measured 0.75 incles. The Four Mile Run precipitation gauge indicated about 0.95 inches.

Chance of s*** this week, chance of thunder the next... (snip) .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High clouds are abundant at present, but low levels remain dry, and temps have dropped into the 20s and 30s. There should be some veiled sun this morning, but clouds will thicken this afternoon as low pressure developing over the Carolina coast moves northeastward. Expect rain to begin overspreading central VA around midday and reach the metro late this afternoon, near or during rush hour. The back edge looks like it will be near or just west of the Blue Ridge, and the higher elevations there will likely be just cold enough to see some snow, with a coating possible along Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway. Elsewhere, just a chilly rain, mostly light, with amounts generally less than a third of an inch. Highs today will be mostly in the 40s and low 50s. (snip) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm air advection precip will spread north across the area Thu night and continue through Fri as shortwave-trough over the OH Valley moves east. Mid-upper level ridge then builds over the East early next week leading to a significant warming trend. Then models show falling heights over eastern North America as broad trough develops. The GFS is faster than the Euro in eroding the mid- upper level ridge, but this eventually leads to a stormy unsettled wx pattern with frequent opportunities for showers and even t- storms. Will add a chance of thunder for Mon and Tue. (snip)

The latest (and hopefully last for the season, ha.ha.) LWX forecast mention of s***: (snip) .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High clouds are abundant at present, but low levels remain dry, and temps have dropped into the 20s and 30s. There should be some veiled sun this morning, but clouds will thicken this afternoon as low pressure developing over the Carolina coast moves northeastward. Expect rain to begin overspreading central VA around midday and reach the metro late this afternoon, near or during rush hour. The back edge looks like it will be near or just west of the Blue Ridge, and the higher elevations there will likely be just cold enough to see some snow, with a coating possible along Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway. Elsewhere, just a chilly rain, mostly light, with amounts generally less than a third of an inch. Highs today will be mostly in the 40s and low 50s. (snip)

Summary: 3-7 inches north and west, maybe 8 for the far north and west. Close in to DC, maybe 1-3 inches.

LWX has updated their WSWs and WWAs.

I would not have believed you until I checked for near DCA: Freezing rain and sleet. High near 33. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Was LWX trying to invoke St. Patrick's Day 2017? Or had they run out of water at Sterling and had to resort to stronger stuff? ((I'm joking, but there was a situation when a (NON NWS) conference staff suite ran out of cola on Sunday morning....)) I'm hoping this was just some ham-handed mistake by whatever tired intern dragged up from his sleeping bag got told to update.

Don't leave home just yet if you don't have to. WTOP just noted nine crashes and two unresolved situations in its two-minute traffic report. I'm sure there are more out there.

About half the flights at DCA are still cancelled. But a few are actually departing now (in contrast to WTOP's claim).

I'm pretty sure my result (2 miles west of DCA) was about 2.5 inches before the s**** and f***** **** knocked down the totals on the hedges.

I think they are all hoping (as I am) that the overnight blowtorch will take care of it, if the DOTbergmakers haven't. But as usual, tune into your favorite newspeddlers at 4 am again.

It's finally gotten to 32 and IP at DCA. It's beating down my accumulations. I want R*** to wash away the other stuff so I don't have to play with it tomorrow.

WTOP just had reports of mixing in Warrenton, Spotsy and Stafford.

I'm eyeballing about 2 to 2.5 inches on the hedges in South Arlington. About to get ready to officially measure.

WSTOP just had someone on from DDOT claiming they would start plowing.

Excuse my French, BUT- I want to pose a question to all the s***lovers in this forum. Are YOU shoveling the DOTbergs? Or your parents? Or even older people? Or the maintenance people? Or the opportunists seeing someone not dug out yet?