arlwx

The latest from LWX: Warm advection precip should start breaking out across the region from west to east this evening as the first of several disturbances moves across the region along a developing stationary front. A warm nose is depicted in guidance, but its strength varies, along with the intensity/degree of low level cold lingering. Given dry air in place, feel it likely most places see some snow and sleet at the onset, with snow likely to linger much if not most of the night and morning on Monday in northern MD. Thus, have highest accumulations generally along the I-70 corridor, with lower amounts elsewhere. However, the greater risk of freezing rain further south has caused us to issued an advisory for most of the CWA. If heavier precip overwhelms the relatively weak warm nose, greater amounts of snow are possible, while if precip turns out lighter, it could be mostly ice/rain instead of snow/sleet. Lows tonight should settle near or below freezing in most areas thanks to evaporation from precip falling into the dry air. On Monday, the first wave pushes east and there may be a lull in precip, most likely later in the morning into the mid afternoon. Guidance allows surface temps to warm up during this time, as well. Thus, cut advisory at 10 AM for now, though its certainly possible it may need to be extended later for parts of the region. Temps likely stay in the 30s in most of the CWA, and across interior locations, it likely struggles to rise above freezing. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A second surge of warm advection will develop late Monday and continue into Tuesday morning. At the same time, strengthening high pressure over southern Canada may intensify the cold air damming down the east side of the Appalachians, and temperatures at low levels may actually fall even as warm advection intensifies aloft. Thus, some areas which rise above freezing during the day Monday may drop back below freezing Monday night before a final rise above freezing Tuesday. This period will likely see the end of snow in northern Maryland, along with the greatest risk of significant ice accumulations. Before the snow ends, however, several more inches are possible in northern MD, and its not out of the question someone ends up with 6 inches or more. In addition, the ice risk also brings the potential for a quarter inch or more of ice, most likely in western MD, but potentially in locations further east and south as well. Bottom line is that while we technically have no headlines up for Monday night, we will certainly need winter weather advisories, and it may end up being a warning level event. Confidence on this is not yet high, though, so have left this in the HWO for now. Low pressure passing to the northwest should allow just enough warm air to push north to bring most places to plain rain later Tuesday. Precip may briefly change back to snow on the back end as the cold front crosses the region, but confidence on this is very low.

WWAs are up. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 302 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 MDZ003>006-011-014-501>508-VAZ028-031-505-WVZ050>053-055-501>504- 102000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0010.190211T0000Z-190211T1500Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Frederick VA-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- 302 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and western Maryland, northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 302 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 DCZ001-MDZ013-VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050>054-501>504-506>508- WVZ505-506-102000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0010.190211T0000Z-190211T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Page-Warren-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 302 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia along with portions of central Maryland, central, northern and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute.

The latest from LWX: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday starts out fairly benign, with perhaps only some increasing high clouds suggesting the change of the weather which will be approaching. Depending on how long the sun lasts, temps may get stuck in the 30s, or could sneak into the 40s. By late afternoon, warm advection ahead of the first disturbance combined with jet forcing from a streak to our northeast should combine to start causing precip to break out across the region, though dry low levels likely keep most areas dry until after sunset. Temperatures aloft are extremely tricky this time around, with many models showing a warm tongue - however, its location, position and strength will make a lot of difference. If a heavier band of precipitation moves through, the column may cool and we could see more snow than we are currently predicting Sunday night, while weaker precip would allow rain/sleet and freezing rain to prevail in the areas where the warm layer is relatively weak. After the initial wave, additional weak impulses and continued warm advection/fgen aloft may keep light precip around much of the day Monday before a stronger surge of moisture and forcing ahead of the second, stronger low pressure system bring steadier and heavier precip across the region Monday night. Given timing and type uncertainties, for the time being we are keeping the forecast relatively general, with light amounts of snow/sleet followed by some potential for freezing rain Sunday night into Monday with the first wave, then additional freezing rain and sleet (and perhaps a little snow near the Mason/Dixon line) later Monday into early Tuesday as the stronger wave of low pressure lifts northeastward to our northwest. As far as impacts, the best bet for them is during the Monday morning commute, with lesser odds for the evening commute (given mainly lighter precip during the day, potential for some warming during daylight, and crews being able to get out and treat the roads). High uncertainty regarding Tuesday morning`s commute exists given potential for cold air to get drawn back south Monday night, especially north and west of the I-95 corridor. Advisory level snow/ice is generally expected across much of the forecast area, keeping in mind the ice threshold is very low and the snow threshold during rush hour in the metro is also quite low. That said, at this time, while nothing can be ruled out, we are not explicitly forecasting warning level snow or ice. However, if a band of heavier snow developed, or if the cold air drains back south while heavier precip is moving in Monday night, warning level snow/ice would be quite possible. Temps through the short term will remain generally below normal during the day, and near normal at night, with areas north and west of I-95 having trouble getting above freezing Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Tuesday a mid to upper level trough will be over the Midwest while a low pressure system is at the surface. This system will be moving NW as a warm front associated to it will lift north over our CWA through the day Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Tuesday night. Widespread precipitation during this time is possible. It may start as a wintry mix of precip early on Tuesday, but there may be enough warm air to see all rain. Wintry mix could return Tuesday night before precipitation moves away from our area along with a cold front. High pressure builds from the southwest on Wednesday and remains in control into Thursday. The next weather system to watch for approaches on Friday bringing precipitation over our region, with the potential for rain and/or snow.

1.2 inches here in Arlington VA

As of 1352, 26 degrees.

DCA said it plunged from 37 at 1317 to 27 at 1334.

Shades of Carmageddon! 1310: 38 degrees on my carometer. 1320: 30 degrees 2 m west of DCA. With a hundred snowflakes trying to assault my driveway.

Snow squall warnings from LWX and State College. Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 833 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 MDC001-WVC023-057-301401- /O.NEW.KLWX.SQ.W.0003.190130T1333Z-190130T1430Z/ 833 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 Allegany County MD-Grant County WV-Mineral County WV- The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Western Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 930 AM EST. * At 833 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall line was located over West Virginia, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Whiteout conditions. Near zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel, especially on high speed highways and interstates. * For those driving on Interstate 68, this is especially dangerous as visibility will rapidly drop and pavement will become rapidly icy from a small amount of snow accumulation. Locations impacted before 930 am will likely include... Cumberland, Frostburg, Keyser, Westernport, Bel Air, Bayard, La Vale, Lonaconing, Piedmont, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Ridgeley, Cresaptown, Potomac Park, Wiley Ford, Eckhart Mines, Mount Savage, Rawlings, Ellerslie and Barton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is no safe place on a highway when a snow squall hits. Visibility and traction are immediately lost in whiteout conditions, making it difficult or impossible to slow down and avoid stopped vehicles. Delay travel or safely exit the highway before the snow squall arrives. LAT...LON 3908 7934 3915 7933 3919 7929 3921 7931 3918 7947 3919 7949 3929 7934 3930 7930 3936 7926 3936 7922 3940 7918 3939 7916 3942 7916 3941 7914 3947 7911 3948 7907 3972 7893 3972 7861 3908 7934 $$ SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS STATE COLLEGE PA 825 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 PAC009-013-021-023-027-033-035-061-301401- /O.NEW.KCTP.SQ.W.0003.190130T1325Z-190130T1415Z/ 825 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 Bedford County-Blair County-Cambria County-Cameron County-Centre County-Clearfield County-Clinton County-Huntingdon County- The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Northern Bedford County in south central Pennsylvania... Eastern Clearfield County in central Pennsylvania... Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania... Centre County in central Pennsylvania... Blair County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Cameron County in north central Pennsylvania... Central Cambria County in central Pennsylvania... Western Clinton County in north central Pennsylvania... * Until 915 AM EST. * At 825 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Stevenson Dam to Chester Hill to near Bellwood to near Ogletown, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * For those driving on Interstate 80, this includes areas between the Woodland and Lamar exits, specifically from mile markers 123 to 169. This includes Interstate 99 from mile markers 10 to 85. This snow squall will be near... Kettle Creek State Park, Philipsburg, North Philipsburg, South Philipsburg, Chester Hill and Sandy Ridge around 830 AM EST. Sinking Valley, Black Moshannon State Park, Queen, Tipton, Westport, Canoe Creek State Park, Birmingham and Ski Gap around 840 AM EST. South Renovo, Julian, Renovo, Stormstown, Port Matilda, Spruce Creek, Williamsburg and Franklinville around 850 AM EST. State College, Hyner, Houserville, Park Forest Village, Glen Union, Pine Grove Mills and Ramblewood around 900 AM EST. Other locations impacted by this snow squall include West Decatur, Tunnelhill, Ramey, Spring Hill, Cassandra, Brisbin, Beech Creek, McConnellstown, Howard and Petersburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Serious injuries and deaths may result from people exiting their vehicles during a snow squall. Drivers may not be able to see you or to stop! If stopped on the roadway or involved in an accident, quickly exit your vehicle move as far away from the roadway as possible ONLY when it is safe to do so. Do not stand along or near the roadway, since approaching vehicles may be unable to maintain control. LAT...LON 4020 7868 4023 7866 4025 7885 4070 7851 4141 7814 4139 7755 4135 7749 4130 7746 4064 7775 4017 7816 4020 7868

And for those of you thinking OPM caved yesterday: Not all Feds live east and south of the RT 123/I495 snow fence. Some commute from far west of Dulles, which hit freezing at 3 pm. Leaving DC at 1:30, those in Sterling barely had time to get home first. I think OPM also feared a repeat of Carmageddon (26 Jan 2011), where I bolted early and barely could see through the ice forming on my windshield to cross the Potomac and slide home. Those who waited for OPM to make the call were SOL.

The Rt.123/I-495 snow fence held up long enough for those west and north of there to keep almost all the s***! Now all I have to worry about is the flashfreeze icing. Down to 24 at DCA at 4 am. OPM probably threw the feds a bone so they can see the ice this morning and hopefully not get into wrecks. Same for Arlington: Weds, Jan. 30: All APS schools and offices will open 2 hours late. Extended Day will also open 2 hours late and morning field trips are canceled. Essential personnel and food service workers should report to work at their scheduled time. All other employees should report to work two hours past their usual start time. We will reconfirm or update this status by 6:00 am. Ditto for Alexandria public schools: Important Message WEATHER ALERT: For Wednesday, January 30, 2019, all ACPS schools and offices are opening two hours late. Kindergarten through grade 12 and Virginia Preschool Initiative (VPI) students report two hours later than regular opening time. Morning pre-K programs (Early Childhood Special Education and Preschoolers Learning Together) report two hours later than regular opening time, and dismiss one hour later than usual. Afternoon pre-K reports one hour later than regular opening time and is dismissed at the regular time. All non-essential personnel should report two hours later than their regular time. Essential personnel report at regular time. To complete the inner suburb set, Falls Church: FCCPSAlert Falls Church City Public Schools will operate on a 2-hour delay, Wednesday, January 30th. Day Care will open at 8 am. No Drop-Ins will be accepted. As a result of the delay, there will be no Early Release except for some students at Jessie Thackrey Preschool. We will continue to monitor weather overnight and adjust schedule if needed by 6am. To complete the inner set: MoCO and PG 2-hour delays No announcement from DCPS (and probably won't be one)

The latest from LWX: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cut back on snow totals and advisory area a bit based on 1) slight downward trend in QPF with latest guidance (and upstream radar presentation), and 2) most precip falling as snow will likely be falling with temps at or just above freezing. This will still cause slippery travel especially on untreated surfaces as temperatures fall through this evening, but totals appear more likely to be in the coating-2" range as opposed to 1-3"+. The leading edge of a large/deep upper low diving into the Great Lakes will absorb a small spoke of southern stream energy, taking on a negative tilt as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic later today. This combined with strong frontal forcing in the 850-700 hPa layer is expected to result in a band of precipitation along an eastward moving surface cold front. Temperatures aloft will be cooling through the day and support snow, but boundary layer temperatures will be marginal (especially near/south of US-50). A rain/snow mix or even plain rain is expected to start, before a change to wet snow. Given the dynamics in play and the strong front, there could be a few moderate bursts of snow. Most of the snowfall is expected to occur in a 2-3 hour window in any one area (except northern Maryland where a bit longer period of snow is expected due to somewhat cooler temperatures). Further west, a relative minimum in precipitation is expected with less than an inch of snow forecast in the I-81 corridor (less precip) and over central VA (warmer temps). Over the Allegheny Highlands, an inch or two of snow is likely, followed by a period of light freezing drizzle. As the front pushes eastward tonight, conditions dry out rapidly. Lows will dip into the teens, with single digits over the higher elevations.

The latest from LWX: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High clouds will be exiting the area later today giving way to abundant sunshine with high pressure building over the area. Clouds will start increasing again this evening ahead of next low pressure moving through Michigan and its associated cold front. Expecting light snow to break out after 07Z across far west and nrn MD counties. Any accumulation through 12Z Tue will be less than half inch. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models have been indicating a secondary low pressure center forming along the front as it moves across the area Tue afternoon. Overall, guidance has trended wetter and colder across the north with this system. Through midday Tue, expect snow north of I-70 and west of Rt 15 with rain east and south of there, then rain gradually changing to wet snow as colder air filters in. Over the I-95 corridor, the changeover may not occur until closer to sunset with a 3-6 hr period of moderate wet snow falling at sfc temps likely around freezing before ending by midnight Tue night. QPF is generally 0.1 to 0.5 inches with highest amts along the I-95 corridor, but most of that would be falling as rain or rain/snow mix. This translates to about 1-3 inches of snow with highest accumulations north of I-70. Rapid clearing is expected Tue night after midnight, then Arctic front will follow on Wed with rapdily falling temps during the afternoon. Winds could gust up to 45 mph Wed creating dangerous low wind chills. Snow showers or snow squalls may accompany the front as it crosses the area or develop behind the front on the strong NW flow.

The latest from LWX: SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil weather Mon through Mon evening as weak high pressure builds in. Precip with next frontal passage moving through the Great Lks will start moving in after 06Z Tue in the Allegheny Highlands and spread across the rest of the area through the day Tue and finally exit the area around midnight Tue night. Snow is expected across the mtns with a rain/snow mix along the I-81 corridor and along the Mason Dixon line and rain east of Rt 15 and south of I-70 through about 21Z. Colder air will start filtering in more quickly late Tue and Tue evening with rain changing to snow from west to east as cold front progresses through the area. Precip will change to snow everywhere before ending around 03Z Wed. Due to warm bdry layer temps, only about an inch or two of wet snow is expected mostly falling during the early evening hrs. Highest accumulations are expected along the Rt 15 corridor from Loudoun County north and north of I-70. The WPC 95th and EPS percentiles are about 4 inches with this storm, so only winter weather advisories are anticipated with this system and only for some areas.

A threat of a blue norther. Pre-dawn, DCA topped out at 56. As of 1252 pm, back down to 35. How many will slip and fall coming out of sports bars/etc even if they were designated drivers? Edit: WSTOP just announced its brrometer hit 29 degrees at 130 pm.

A cartopper in Arlington VA. As of 5 am, DCA didn't go below 34 for the entire event. NO shoveling!

My storm total in Arlington VA was 9.5. I had gotten a path cleared to my car, but now I have to do that and the car ALL OVER AGAIN.

WTOP just reported that (Metrorust) will stop service at the ends of their current runs. (Metrosnail) was not said to be affected, but with totals above 8 inches, I expect aboveground stations to be affected.

Calvert County schools just said they would close.

St Mary's schools just threw in the towel too.

Charles County also gave students tomorrow off.

In Northern VA, only Loudoun and Manassas Park haven't yet decided to close schools on Monday. In MD, only PG decided yet to close schools. https://wtop.com/closings-and-delays/

Visibility down towards 1/2 mile in Arlington VA. ((WHO worked to dump this much s*** on me??))

At 2 pm, I had 6.7 inches in Arlington VA. I got my car mostly cleaned off, was too cold to continue, went inside and around 3 pm it started sticking again. Eyeball guesstimate: ANOTHER 3/4 to one inch.

As of 1055 am: 6.2" in Arlington VA. Intellicast showed some pink for a while just to my south, but then it turned blue again.

5.7" in Arlington VA.