TheClimateChanger

Looks like there may be something to track late next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a low passing to the south. May be a similar setup to the event earlier this month.

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I like the thought, and I absolutely think we’ll get our chances, but to be fair, climo for this time period is 6.7”, so I would hope there’s a near certainty that we get at least 3”, especially considering that a 12z map would include what was modeled for this morning after daybreak.

Yes, it's not really going on on that much of a limb there. Certainly wouldn't be the first time we went two weeks in early February with less than 3 inches, but probably 7 of 10 years that number would be met (given the average is 6.7"). But 90-100% would definitely be better odds than just strictly climo. 

I think what we need is a storm to track like the November 1950 storm, or the White Hurricane of November 1913. Not sure if you guys are familar with that one - has the daily record of 12.5" on the 9th of November. I think storm total downtown was like 14" with 12-24" widespread throughout the region. I always thought that was just some storm up in northern Michigan, but I guess it was a potent northern wave that produced strong gales. Then a new low pressure formed in the southeast coast on the cold front and retrograded northeast to Erie while bombing out with a negatively tilted trough. I think either of those tracks would be really good for us. Superstorm Sandy came close but was too early in the year for snow outside of the mountains.

Some of the models were suggesting YNG airport could get 16", and I checked and there has not been a two day storm total that higher there since November 1950. And compared to Columbus and Indy at a similar latitude, PIT has had way more big storms.

I think some people like to complain about Pittsburgh, but given its location and latitude, 4 official 20+" storms is actually pretty good. Toledo has only had one, and that was in 1900. Detroit has only had one, and it was in the 1800s (in April, no less). And there's been several others that have produced 20"+ in the area, but were somewhat less at the official observation site.

Just for context… Toledo’s 12.5” storm total was sixth biggest on record. 
 

https://twitter.com/jayberschback/status/1489460096140775428?s=21

Power just came back on after nearly 16 hours… 

Still no power here. 

Same here. I can hear branches and tree limbs cracking and falling in the woods.

Power still out here. I don’t know how you guys aren’t getting this ice storm?

Power outage here

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Freezing rain has changed to heavy sleet here in southern Beaver.

Freezing rain has changed to heavy sleet here in southern Beaver.

28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Depends on what you mean. I don’t think beaver co is busting on ice.

I don’t think we will be sitting here at 10 pm still wait at 32.5. We got to be done by then right?

If not this would have to go down as the longest lasting coldest rain storm in history


.

Probably latent heat release from the rain keeping temperatures near or just above freezing in many places overcoming the colder air advecting in from the north at the surface.

I was actually thinking the icing was worse than expected for this point in time…

16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Too early to call this a bust on icing potential yet???

I wouldn’t call it a bust. The trees look like a bona fide ice storm already. Sorry for the sideways upload. No idea why it does that?

Not in our area, but the NWS in Charleston has upgraded some of its southeast Ohio counties to an Ice Storm Warning. Now talking about potential for widespread power outages and up to 3/4" of ice accumulation.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

KYZ101-102-OHZ067-075-083-084-040015-
/O.UPG.KRLX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220204T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRLX.IS.W.0001.220203T1602Z-220204T1200Z/
Greenup-Carter-Morgan-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Including the cities of Flatwoods, Raceland, Russell, Grayson,
Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Grayson Lake State Park,
McConnelsville, Stockport, Athens, Jackson, Wellston, Oak Hill,
McArthur, and Hamden
1102 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Snow accumulations of up to 3 inches
  and ice accumulations of three tenths to three quarters of an
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Expect widespread power outages and tree damage due
  to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

Additional information can be found at
https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our Facebook and
Twitter pages.

&&

$$

Seeing a bit more ice accrual now, especially on the bird feeder. Rhododendrons have icicles hanging from the leaves.

14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can any confirm what is happening in the areas that are being identified as ZR?

Same as the other report from Beaver County. Sidewalk and driveway are just wet, but there is a very light glaze now accreting on elevated surfaces (tree branches, pine needles, etc.). I think our typical freezing rain setup is coming out of a deep freeze, where the rain arrives prior to temperatures warming above freezing. In this case, temperatures were in the 40s yesterday so road surfaces seem to be above freezing still. Probably would take a few more hours of below freezing temperatures to get any icing on paved surfaces.

This would be a historic storm in northeast Ohio. Wow.

6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I have to think they have had some since then (seems as though they have cashed in on a lot of our snow over the years)

But fair thought - our storms since that got close or over that (‘94, ‘96, ‘03, ‘10) were considerably lighter there. 

 

The 11.9 on 1/16-17 was the biggest storm since December 2010 at YNG airport. Still hasn't been a foot storm there since then. I don't know what was going on in December 2010 but they were reporting crazy, inflated snow totals. I don't recall any storms between 1993 and 2009 that would have reached 16" when I lived there. A foot was generally the top.

HRRR getting up into rarified territory for northeast Ohio. Nearly 16 inches at Canton, Akron and Youngstown. 17 inches in Cleveland. If that happens, would be the largest snowstorm in a long, long time for some areas.

HRRR is getting up into crazy territory in northeast Ohio. When was the last time Canton and Youngstown had 16 inches or more? March '93 Superstorm?