MJO812

12z Nam

Looks like NJ and LI will get alot of rain.

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We will have multiple rounds of convection today even if the core of Michael slides by just to the Southeast.

Agree

Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that.

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given that's it's not really all that tropical by the time it gets here, I'd go with the regular models.   3K nam is what most show-an area in the middle that does not get all that much relatively speaking

We have thrown out the hurricane models once before and got burned for it. We will see what happens later.

9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I'm curious to look at the FSU phase space diagrams as this thing exists the coast to see just how ET it really is.

What's shown by the HWRF looks more like something approaching the coast than something from the FL panhandle.

Hurricane models still show alot of rain for the area while the other models don't show alot.

Hmon is also very close to the area

Models are slightly more northwest with the remnants of Michael for our area. We will still see some rain but the question is how much ?

Legit possibility if it phases with the trough

The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was .

JB

"Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year "

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it will come down to the timing of the cold front-any slower and it will come further north...

Yep

Hope we get a nice noreaster

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is fairly far south with the rains...

Meh all the models will change in the upcoming days

Looks like Michael might dump alot of rain on the area .

Ben Noll in regards to the Euro Seasonal

-Continues to paint a stormy, cold picture for the East Coast.
-Pattern gets underway sooner; i.e. Nov or Dec, than last run.
-Feb still looks like the biggest month.
-Jan is wet West Coast.
-Driven by hybrid Niño, Modoki-lean. 

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to be a tough year I think for this sub-forum with the mean track closer to the coast. Going to come down to good timing of storm systems in conjunction with fresh cold air.

Meanwhile other people are saying how this will be a great winter for the mid atlantic

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Reminds me of the winter of 01-02 and 11-12 the cold air was always 10 days away-hope that's not a bad sign for this year....

It's only October lol

8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hope so

March and April are now winter months

Heavy rain with lightning here

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

Feels great outside 

Sleeping with the window open

A tropical system will come up the coast

Winter is almost here

27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is back to playing games with the remnants. 

All the models show the remnants still hanging out near the coast.

Pouring here with loud thunder and lightning

Models try to look Florence back tot be coast after it goes off the coast this week.