MJO812

Weenie cmc run

Gfs and cms show a big storm next weekend

Euro and gfs on board with a coastal rainstorm. Now the question will be how strong ?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro looks pretty tame to me.

Alot of snow for interior new england

47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Good Lord, lots of 2 pennant+ barbs on the east side of the storm.  How often do you see that?

And it's gone on the 12z Euro

Very fickle situation

All about timing

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS blows something up this run, it's just well offshore. 

Not sure if big fall coastals or October snows are bad for winter, but not boring is good. 

It wasn't that far off from the Euro solution. A ton of energy on the backside.

Strong signal on the gefs and eps for a  noreaster.

Hurricane force winds for New England coast in the Euro

If this was a little big earlier to phase.

Wow big potential

What a bomb on the Euro

Hurricane force winds for New England coast.

If this was a little big earlier to phase.

Wow big potential

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 or anyone else help me out,,,,,,Im looking at the Euro hour 240 ( and for you others yes I realize that its still lite years away and there is oceans of time ) but isn't the freeze line all the way down near the coast >I mean the center of the low is wayyyyy up in Canada but that looks frozen and blue all the way down to the coast,,,,,no ?

The storm at 240 is well into Canada. The 850 line is off the coast.

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

How far N or W is the freezing line?

Canada

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nasty storm next weekend on euro.

This is with a sloppy phase. Imagine a cleaner phase?

Pattern supports a big coastal storm

Euro shows alot of rain and wind for next weekend. Low goes over NYC. Sub 1000. Sloppy phase.

Euro ensembles still show a decent signal for a coastal storm at the end of this month.

43 here

12z gfs has the coastal storm again. Cmc is also close.

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 2degs. BN. 

Month to date is +5.6[64.7].   Should be +3.2[60.6] by the 26th.

Storm for the 28th. not looking so good this morning.    EURO lost an offshore item and the GFS is weaker with system.   

44.4 here at 5am

43.8 here at 6am

For now the models lost it but the pattern does support it.

Earthlight

"The threat for a significant storm along the East Coast from 10/25 - 10/30 can be traced back to the larger scale pattern evolution in the North Pacific Ocean. A jet extension and poleward amplification of a ridge into British Columbia jump starts the pattern change."

55 right now in Brooklyn

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The general threat area is the weekend before Halloween. 

18z gfs shows a strong coastal rainstorm for the area

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The timing is off on the last few runs. Trough is kicking it East off the Mid-Atlantic coast instead of trapping it and pulling it North. Either way looks like a big rainstorm for someone.

Agree with snow possible in New England

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z FV3 GFS was fun that's a heck of a storm for us..

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

Euro crushes new england at 240

Larry Cogrove

"The turn to colder air over much of the U.S. in this past week is really only the start of some major weather changes. Because as we approach Halloween, the threat for a large scale major storm and follow-up cold spell will be increasing.

A prominent Kelvin wave is solidifying over the westernmost Pacific Ocean above Indonesia. As the Madden-Julian Oscillation is expanding eastward, this impulse may link with the polar westerlies (see shortwaves in the PRC and east of Japan), and start the process of amplifying the jet stream with a ridge over Alaska and western/northern Canada. That action would force digging of a 500MB shortwave into the lower Great Plains around Oct 25.

Now this is the important part! At the same time that cold air drainage and central U.S. disturbance is taking shape, the tropical Atlantic Basin may supply a warm-core impulse or moisture fetch into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two viable candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis (Caribbean Sea and Lesser Antilles), and one or both of these systems could get drawn into the deepening extratropical storm as it approaches Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Oct 27-29."