MJO812

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Looking more like nothing, hopefully extended sleet. And we'll see, LR forecasts are worthless to me. We are spoiled here now. It's hard to keep this up.

We will start off as sleet and snow since dews will be low.

The long range warmth is now gone on the models. All the tellies are becoming favorable .

Watch for a snowstorm possibly at the end of this month of early december.

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yep. Going the wrong way. Very swift warm push aloft.

These situations are fickle

Take anything we can get since its only mid November.

We will get plenty of snow this winter starting late this month.

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

TBH, we were just outside most of the big storms last year in our area. I have seen snow in Nov, heck we had significant snow in Nov 2012 right after Sandy, with Freehold getting 13 inches. Maybe Unc can check this out, but Nov snows seem to correlate with less snowy winters IIRC. Let's hope for an interesting winter. 

You don't have to worry about that

This winter is going to rock

Temps are near freezing for the coast

Pretty impressive

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Eh, I'd take mid November with cold ground over mid March any day. 

Higher sun angle in march

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

Definitely possible. But we all know how hard it is to accumulate snow in central park in November.  

Cad situations can do wonders

2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

NYC sees 2 or 3 hours of snow at most before the rain takes over. As Eric said above, 850s are really warm across most of PA too. Freezing Rain will be an issue as 2m temps are 28 to 30 degrees

Barely any rain 

Temps hover around freezing

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm going to enjoy my 20 minutes of sleet before it turns to a cold rain. 

Honestly I'm just happy the pattern is so active. November will be well AN Precip wise, it already is.

Why are you always negative? LOL

Para gfs has several inches for the interior and few inches for NYC

42 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

You would be shocked if you get 1 inch is snow? Don’t see how that’s unreasonable at all. 

It's very possible

Models tend to underdo cad

Nam is colder for the city with a better front end thump

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Coastal areas are going to go over to rain thanks to the warm Easterly flow. This has always been a front end only scenario. Once the surface low gets up to SNJ it's all over. After that it's going to depend on the evolution of the ULL. Some guidance is suggesting a secondary surface low could form on Friday morning. 

Precip usually comes in faster than modeled with these type of systems so this might help out everyone in regards to frozen precip.

3-5inches for NYC on the Euro

Most likely sleet accumulations

So much for a prolonged stretch of warm weather

NAO AO and EPO are going to be negative along with a favorable PNA in the near future

December is going to be a very interesting month with cold and snow chances

So much for a prolonged stretch of warm weather

NAO AO and EPO are going to be negative along with a favorable PNA in the near future

December is going to be a very interesting month with cold and snow chances

Many areas are going to see more sleet than snow

Still impressive for November

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

As many here have confirmed, I don't see any type of miracle happening here near the coast. Should be toast, and I'm skeptical on measurable. Would consider a half inch a win if you're on immediate coastal plain. I'd think 1-3" inside 495. A general 3-6" outside 495. Perhaps 4-8" for higher elevations of SNE. You have onshore winds and discouraging mid level wind direction despite colder air in place. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a warmer event tucked closer to LI, leaving most outside of higher elevations with lower totals. We need to keep an eye on how this trends in the next day or two.

The high up north has been trending further south and anchoring  longer.

Rgem shows alot of sleet for the coast

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

Sleet and freezing rain

This is close for the coast. Temps are in the lower to mid 30s 

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

12z NAM is much colder

Lower 30s here in November lol

Freezing line stays near NYC the whole time on the Nam. Lower 30s for the coast.

Interior gets a few inches

Nam is cold

12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 how far " interior " --> Albany / Cat skills or just outside NYC ?

Outside NYC

Huge cad showing up on the nam

Srefs are pretty snowy for the interior