MJO812

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's really hard to get a big storm to come up the coast when you have a flat, positively tilted trough like the GFS/Euro indicates.

The Northern branch is definitely the issue. If the timing slowed down further, it would allow for more amplification but the cold air would be retreating.

Euro isn't far off at all

We just need the confluence to ease up

16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'd be surprised at this stage if at least a good portion of NC doesn't get crushed. If the EURO holds its game on.

LOL

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At this rate myrtle beach might be in the bullseye

Check out the cmc

The tellies this morning are a little better if you want snow up here

PNA will be rising  to positive around the timeframe of the storm

NAO will be positive

AO will be negative

24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

You shouldn't congrats anyone a few days out. Anyway, this looks good for the south as of right now. I hope we all cash in up and down the coast.

24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Man the Carolina's look to be in line for historic snows.

Yes right now but we have been through this road many times

15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish

Isotherm expects the 2nd half of December after the brief warmup to be interesting

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 4degs. BN.

EPS and GEFS, both look snow free.

Eps isn't snow free

Euro trended north and while I said yesterday things don't look good, we shouldn't rule out the north trend like we always get with these storms.

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

lol ya, you love busting chops.  

 

But I was asking a serious question to Anthony....what has changed for him to change his tune??    

I'm a weenie

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should feel really good about that. 

And ukie also

It's coming

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GEM MECS

Icon is also north but rain

Gfs is slightly more north but I'm not expecting it to trend northward yet .

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support

Gfs sucks when it comes to coastal storms. It will come around.

Icon and cmc is much further north

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

18z GFS is el garbage for next weekend. 

Para is further north

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The MA forum is frowny-faced right now.

Still a long way to go

Hopefully we all cash in

I don't like how the tellies look near the storm. 

They trended the wrong way this past week. It's early to give up but it's not looking good

31 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

Yeah this isn’t cutting, the confluence will keep pushing this down south. Exactly what’s happening with the euro run. Suppressed to the max

We have been through this many times

Models overdo the confluence until it gets closer.

I don't see how there will be a lot of confluence to squash this.

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I'd like to see some semblance of high pressure in Quebec. Without it, I'd worry whatever cranks in the southern stream will cut. Apps runner or sorts. 

There is too much confluence up north for this to be a cutter or an apps runner.

4 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

Both GFS and PARA GFS were suppressed and missed south big time for next weekends system

And they were amped at 0z

Op runs are going to be all over

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GEM is coming further north also - Euro should be interesting for what its worth still being a week away...…..

Cmc has been out for almost an hour but all we know right know is that there will be a storm.

2 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

All you embrace are the eps. It’s a 5 day period of mild weather. Bid deal. But for a week you did a great job of doing what you do well. troll the snow weenies 

It's not a prolonged warmup

9 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Eric Fisher thinks warmup is a blip. 

The warm-up doesn't look impressive at all. Maybe a few days?

12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I agree. There are many times where these big ticket events end up further north.  6z GFS was close to a big hit for us. Southern Jersey on southward gets dumped while we still get some decent snows up here. 

Para gfs is similiar

I think suppression is a bigger concern than a cutter or a hugger due to the epo push of cold air but we have seen this game before.

20 minutes ago, tim said:

...KFOK @ 27*

i'm @ 29.5*...with last nites precip things are very icy..cars are locked in ice.

a lot of talk in mid atlantic .. RE: next weekend snowstorm..nothing here!

could it be suppresion city here?

We want the gfs to be south of us right now

Just now, Zelocita Weather said:

Anything for the Dec 5th threat...

Nothing