MJO812

43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Its busted very bad on all three systems that’s why all the Mets have also been very bad

People praise it way too much 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC

Models suck 

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

The euro has been really bad this season. Heck , it was even bad last season after the upgrade. 

39 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z 12k.NAM bumped up totals a little vs.the12z run.

 

Nam was more aggressive with the overrunning.  Have to watch that.

16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The best wintry event between now and Christmas might end up being the arctic front on Wednesday.

Giving up on the storm already ?

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Either the GFS/GEFS is going to score a rare coup or it’s going to bust horribly. The Euro/EPS, CMC/GEPS and UKMET are in agreement with a completely different solution with that low in the Great Lakes

It's a weak away. This is normal with big east coast storms. All we need is the pac to cooperate and the northern stream to dig.

Not impossible this far out

Rgem  starts the city as snow and then changes to freezing rain 

 Cold run

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS is currently on its own. The Euro, UKMET, and CMC have a low in the Great Lakes and a separate southern stream low.

Gfs has support from the gefs and we know how well the euro has been this season.

Euro came on board at 0z. I'm already seeing some media outlets already sounding the alarm lol 

Pattern supports a storm . The pac has to cooperate.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need to lose that northern stream low over the GL so it doesn’t suppress the southern stream low.

Gfs and gefs look good

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM wants nothing to do with it. It’s now showing half an inch of snow total, even up here. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121512&fh=81

Its really far south and dry

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How much does the euro 06z run have for us Ant... I heard it went way south!

Every model is getting drier for our area

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS has this as a more typical noreaster setup with the EURO a but wonkier.

Gefs is also on board big time 

Mid 30s and rain here for the city

Lovely

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Nam is terrible for our area. Seems like a non event. 

Its terrible for alot of areas unless you live to the west and especially the interior.

All rain for NYC  on the Nam

The initial precip dries up as it heads east.

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like a very strong but in and out cold blast on Thursday?

That should set the table for the possible coastal storm this upcoming weekend

Gfs shows the big  storm hitting  us on the 22nd. Gefs has big hits.

Gefs has a big signal 

Block is finally getting realized ? Maybe this will continue to track further south.

52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too.  Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run 

Freezing line is near the city throughout the Nam. Very icy. 

49 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I am watching this one for the educational value.          A summary of possible snow totals:     GFS   0"-1",   Cobb Method is 0" ,  GEM is 2" (but has lost the 6" it had for the 22nd),   EURO is 4", SREF is 1", UKMet is too secretive.

Prospects for any snow before year's end are dropping fast, so if you see some:

Catch a Falling Snowflake and Put It on Your Shovel-----Save It for the Next Snowless Day.

What?

Nam is even more south and colder

Nam is very cold and south 

18z euro is once again further south and colder . Snow to rain for the coast with ice inland.

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Taking a nice trip to the Tughill it should bury those guys

 

 

Not the front end

Its further south