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MJO812

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    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

    For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

    As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities from the storm in question.

    Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

    However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

    Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

    Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

    Great writeup

    The warm looks to be brief.

    • Like 1

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

    It's really hard to get a big storm to come up the coast when you have a flat, positively tilted trough like the GFS/Euro indicates.

    The Northern branch is definitely the issue. If the timing slowed down further, it would allow for more amplification but the cold air would be retreating.

    fv3p_z500_vort_us_26.png

    Euro isn't far off at all

    We just need the confluence to ease up

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

    Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

    You shouldn't congrats anyone a few days out. Anyway, this looks good for the south as of right now. I hope we all cash in up and down the coast.

    • Like 1
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