MJO812

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. 

The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though. 

This would be awesome. Blocking plus strong stj

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

Cold and snowy is my call

Historic El Nino. NYC will see 100 inches of snow.

I always watch his videos. Very knowledgeable  https://youtu.be/DrAPIw8i0iA?is=e1-O1Q_oXIphw5js

Thunder here

9 hours ago, JACKASS said:

Nah, metfan has even more links you should check out. 

I will once we get closer to winter .

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

Its funny how people know what the weather will be like months from now. That poster also seems too confident. 

What we do know is that the STJ will be strong. 

Loud thunder and lightning here with heavy rain

10 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

Maybe the El nino will start cooling off by winter.

Its disgusting outside

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Thats a bold statement this far out.  I have no clue why people do this every year.

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

More screenshots

Farmers Almanac is out

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-2026-2027-winter-weather-forecast?fbclid=IwdGRjcAThvfpjbGNrBOG993Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEe6Q6eQZ92kDTC3QkLhdnoGnQMMx9OQIAhNlz7ZiVzJdXYOAO43PMNEU5G158_aem_EFovHai4sN_eBYr16qi4hQ

Direct Weathers preliminary winter outlook ( yes its too early )

https://youtu.be/IZqYlxG7C9U?is=3cdS4C1yUk_g8R87

Direct Weather's preliminary winter outlook ( yes i know its way too early)

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh momma, wtf are you singing?

Epic winter coming

Torrential rain here with loud thunder

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half )  we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

September is also early. Check back in November.

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have the strongest east based Nino on record, it’s going to be an historic warm winter.  This is not difficult

Dude nothing is set in stone this early. Some of you haven't learned a thing about long range forecasting.  

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. 

The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges  in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could."

That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?

Many forecasts are for warmth but they are just going by enso. Many other factors to consider. 

One more month until the Ber months and back to school

Happy August

17 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The GFS has been pretty insistent something develops and heads at least in the general direction of the CONUS. We'll see.

It was an outlier and now lost it. 

48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not a forecast

Just a prediction

I think his middle name may be Nit

Congrats DC