MJO812

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z runs kind of meh so far

Not good. Gefs is also offshore.

Cloudy. Was hoping for a washout today

42 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Just awful. Say goodbye to the sun for a week if this is correct.

6z Euro AI hooks the storm into New England

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro AI not backing down

Now gfs hooks left with the coastal storm.

Just now, bluewave said:

Especially if the surface low gets captured by the upper low and gets pulled in from the east by later in the week. Several models have been showing these cyclonic loop scenarios. Still early for details like that but the blocking to the north and closed low is very strong for this time of year. So there is at least some potential.

 

 

 

Gfs on board

Euro , Euro AI and now the GFS has storm that hooks into the coast. 

Nam doesn't have alot of rain today. 

50 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

https://x.com/nycemergencymgt/status/2101397023626797401?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Okay?

25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And Euro continues to be mainly dry for the week. 

Euro AI shifted east also 

Hopefully we get a trend back west

 Would be nice to get some cool and damp weather. 

0z Models are back to being wetter for next week. Coastal is closer to the coast.

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

48” pretty much here in bed stuy Brooklyn 

 Last winter was good. Best winter in over 10 years.

2 hours ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

Looks like it

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like this could continue for a while too.

My forecast has 60s all week with rain 

If only this was January 

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Starting to get hints if color in Westchester and north. Break out the pumpkin spice

Dunkin Donuts already have it.

AI gfs is further west of 12z run with the coastal. Another model that shows a wet week ahead. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Brutal run if true

Welcome to El Nino

Gfs has rain all week next week for the NYC area

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Plenty of 80s to come. There's 3 coming this week alone. 

Next week looks cool and wet

61 here

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

love these cancel winter predictions in September especially when the Cansips model is now predicting the warmest water in the Pacific to be in the central area of the Pacific  (Modoki) not along the South America coast. I am suspecting that this upcoming winter will be similar to last winter - for different reasons of course  -especially mid -late January through February

If even people predicted a cold and snowy winter, its too early for winter predictions. 

This winter doesnt look as bad as people are making it out to be.  This winter will not be as cold as last winter though. 

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?