MJO812

Gfs

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

Warm October = snowy winter

Hopefully

Its weird not seeing any cold air anywhere in the long range gfs.  I guess thats a Strong EL Nino for you.

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

With possible rain at times

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Drought pattern emerging

No way

Raining. 56 here.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A week out

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.

Weeklies?

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

Nice week next week

Lows in the upper 40s and 50s for the coast with highs in the 60s and 70s.

8 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

mid atlantic bomb in feb

Mid Atlantic Winter

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

not really this is typical this time of year in fairbanks..

Wished we lived there

Insane 

Disgusting today

Mike Masco's thoughts

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

People throwing in the towel in October make me laugh. Same people do this every winter.  There are so many factors to consider during the winter.  Its not just enso.

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's gonna be mid-late March weather with extra rain for 4 months. 

Its funny how all the gloom and doom posts are already out.  

9 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Beautiful! going to be a crappy winter regardless so might as well root for the highest possible 

Im loving this. Rare things equals interesting winter ahead. 

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has it sunday night now

Gfs also jumped north

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has it sunday night now

Jumped north from 6z. AI version went south. 

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weekend looking much better now

The season of cold fronts

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can't say that with certainty yet. 

Defintely 

We have seen 80s in October.

Cooldown on the way

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. 

Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

Yep I am seeing videos on YouTube about  competing factors with the strong El Niño that may make this winter interesting especially the PDO.

 Hopefully they are right. Nothing like a mild rainy winter. We usually  only get a month or two of snow. We dont need 12 months of rain. 

Weather with Travis is also another person who thinks that. His forecasts are really good. Check him out. He is a former chief Meteorologist.

Dogfish Shark spotted in Barnegat Bay

Sun trying to come out here