MJO812

0z euro

Weird spotty precip on this run

Brrr

Gfs for NYD

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's your reasoning? most models including gfs have all the lows scoot way south of us and it's going to be way colder

Yep temps in the 20s

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the shortwave will ultimately gain enough latitude over the Upper MW its going to be insanely hard to force it so far south we can clear everything at 700/850.  

Blocking is strong . I can see the coast changing over to sleet at the very end but this looks like a moderate snowstorm. 

Cmc 

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is 4-7 inches

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem came north. Lots of mixing. LI stays all snow

NYC goes to sleet at the end after a thump .

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON moved south a bit but still gets some snow into all of SNE

Nice shift

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Seems to be a very tenuous situation setting up. This storm is relatively weak and will run into strong high pressure. Due to the storms weakness, it can't penetrate the high pressure and becomes a bit shredded before moving into New England. However, there’s enough cold air in place for at least a few inches of snow. This would be more significant if it was moving slowly but there’s no blocking in North Atlantic so this thing is hauling pretty quickly and isn’t really strong enough for huge rates anyway. 

There will be high ratios with this storm whoever is under the heavy banding. 

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

still going here no?

Its final

Nam has a weird orientation. Looks like a lake effect streamer .

Nam

Euro and Euro AI precip amounts. 

Just now, ChescoWx said:

for Brooklyn yes....for the focus of this forum....not so much!

For NJ im talking about 

Euro is great

Euro looks better 

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We needed that.

Euro beefed up amounts

Euro AI ticked north 

Gfs has temps in the 20s for the ball drop in times square and then teens on NYD night in NYC and colder in the burbs  

Complete cave by the gfs to the euro . Very cold air to begin January with a big PNA ridge. Massive NAO block.

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal. 

I might even whiff if the models dont stop trending south.

AI gfs is further south. Almost a scraper.

Gfs is north. Nice hit.

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow.

Because the models were wrong with the warmth. Snow is coming.

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

Very blocky