MJO812

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro trying, there's multiple phasing and waves running up the east coast. it isn't just one and done. We gotta be patient with this one

Agree

Favorable pattern coming up. High chance of a coastal with the favorable PNA.

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS isn't particularly close. But the CMC did phase a little bit. On the 12z CMC so far, some aspects are better than 0z, some worse. I hate having both the GFS and ECM against us.

Gfs has been atrocious. It also always does this with coastals.  

The trough is defintely deeper on the gfs.

33 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

why was the thread deleted? We might've jinxed it here lol

Gfs is slowly coming around to a coastal . 

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Cmc and gfs show a coastal 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We 16th?

Yep cmc also

17 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

It is gone on the 18z.

 

We know the drill with the gfs.

Bam now on the colder side. They cant make up their mind.

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating:

Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look

 

Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!

Holy ridge

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The signal for a PNA+ (a rarity since December 1) has grown stronger on the GEFS. Should a PNA+ develop and then be sustained, opportunities for moderate or larger snowfalls would increase, especially around or after mid-month.

Cmc coming in hot with a coastal 

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

Giving up on February already ? 

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. 

Miller B potential? 

Agree.  Big potential like you saw on the gfs, Euro and EPS.

25 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s just one ensemble member, any others honking though?

Euro isn't far behind

9 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Im just saying that if La Niña is truly front loaded and somehow we escape Jan without any meaningful snow; it wouldn’t bode well for the back half of winter. 

A neutral enso will offer opportunities 

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That sounds terrible. If 8” of snow in NYC is the best this winter has to offer and the backside is worse, then we’re looking at a near ratter. The cold has been impressive though. Just wish there were more opportunities coming for snow. December was amazing; would be nice for January to have continued that trend. 

Dude your posts have been atrocious. Its only early January.  

LA nina is about dead 

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Bamwx backtracking today for the medium range:

 

I dont see the models backtracking with the cold. 

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

State College has seen one of the steepest snowfall declines in the Northeast since the 1960s when they lost the Miller A track just east of the Apps around 20 years ago.

 

 

Wow they over 100 inches over there.

4 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm. 

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re not doing too bad considering where you usually are at this point. 

Im around 9 inches right now.

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….
 

We just need the PNA to be in our favor which it looks like it might .