MJO812

Models were took quick with the insane El Nino ?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think keying in on major signals when developing an analog composite does have some value.

Yes but there are also other factors. Either way , this will be a milder winter than last winter. No doubt about that. 

That could be a good thing since suppression will most likely not be an issue. I will take my chances with that even if its snow to rain events.

Euro has showers for Saturday and Sunday

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

this heat has not been unbearable..

Yes it has

Of course next winter will be warmer. This winter was one of the coldest winters in a long time in the east.  

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

my area is currently in its hottest developing nino may heat wave on record

That doesnt have anything to do with what will occur 7 months from now.  These long range forecasts have to end. They are rarely right.  Its fun to do one though. 

This sucks. Im sweating so much.

86 here

Yuck

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

when they upgraded the nam the last time it stooped showing those 80 inch snowstorms for new england lol

Nam had central NJ getting up to 50 inches the day before the storm.

Rip 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

RRFS had a good showing in the first Dec clipper. Other than that it seemed forgettable. 

It was horrible after that

RIP soon to the Nam , HREF AND SREF.  Going to miss the epic Nam bombs and SREFs awful performances.

RIP soon to the Nam , HREF AND SREF.  Going to miss the epic Nam bombs and SREFs awful performances.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Next winter is toast if this plays out like they say. Awful

Dude its may. No one knows what next weeks weather will be like let alone next winter. Long range forecasting has been awful for years. 

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We need one or two loaded up El Niño southern jet setups to make it this far north with cold air. We don’t want too much blocking to squash everything south. 

Agree but I doubt that would happen with a strong el nino unless a big block forms.

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO odds favor the colder/snowier 2026 -2027 Winter as other factors that helped create last winters below normal temps will repeat next winter.

The STJ should be active. Thats step 1. Step 2 would be blocking. Step 3 would be a negative EPO/ AO.

Snow in denver

Snow in Denver

Spring and Summer are so boring

Bring on Autumn and Winter

Spring and Summer are so boring

Bring on Autumn and Winter

Enjoy

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hard to imagine ghouls like Ineedsnow prefer 45 and rain over this. You wonder what went on during their childhood.

I wish I was in Denver today 

Already sweating 

Awful