MJO812

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

6z euro snow maps really reflecting that sleet / rain mix. Obviously cut totals down to single digits. 

Which map ?

My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now.

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb.  In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled.  Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday

Yep

Euro is too close

Just now, SACRUS said:

GGEM

 

 

 

 

 

12-18 inches areawide on the GFS

Just now, David-LI said:

If this verifies, no school on Monday. 

No school anyway for high school.  They might go remote.

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

GFS trends toward the more amped camp.

Gfs is a huge snowstorm. All snow from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon.

24 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

High qpf events doesn't mean you wont have higher than 10:1. I think the point is 20:1 is not easy to do and should not be expected for the majority of the event 

Whats better for this event ? 10:1 or Kuchera ?

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No school Monday and possibly Tuesday?

Remote learning 

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

18z Euro has a front end thump of 7-10” for coastal areas before going to a lighter wintry mix.  Inland areas get 10-15”+.  The main feature is SLP that is tucked into the Delmarva and southern NJ coast.  This is still a significant storm for the area.

Defintely and I will be happy with that.

NYC will get 8-12. I dont like the warming trend. Hopefully it cools down.

29 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

Fold to the more aggressive models. Gfs is always more suppressed compared to the other models for every storm.

Im around your ballpark but I like 8-12 with a higher potential.

Just now, Winter Wizard said:

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

Always does this with snowstorms

Just now, BoulderWX said:

if nothing else GFS and ICON show the very wide envelope of solutions we have. No longer the consensus we had at 00z last night. Fun times tracking ahead! 

Gfs will fold once again. It always does this with snowstorms. 

Classic GFS progression for big snowstorms 

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.

Who is concerned about a foot of snow ?

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. 

I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12. 

I think 8-12 is the right call right now.  Although it can be alot more if everything goes right.

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The ECMWF is 12-18 hours of snow then light mix/dryslot with possibly some steadier mix or snow at the tail end. That would include a very solid "thump."

Euro has it starting early Sunday morning with the heaviest during the day.

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm gonna get weenie tagged for this, but...

With over 1 inch of precip, temps in the single digits, teens and 20s...

I think this is underdone. I think NYC gets 18 to 24 inches if we get over 1 inch of precip. Other factors will, of course, be the wind and the thermal profile, especially how quickly the column cools once rates increase and whether we get sustained banding.

 

I like 12-18 inches right now

Euro is all day Sunday into early Monday morning. It changes to sleet at the coast but not after alot of snow.

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Why is this the only forum that won't post Kutchera lol.

I always do 

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

AI Euro 12z

Way more with ratios 

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

CMC kinda looks like the Ukie from last night lol

Very amped

Sleet up to coastal SNE but that's when the storm is over. 

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS is a long duration dream

Sunday to Monday night 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs looks stellar

Looks beautiful.  Long duration.