MJO812

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

CMC actually a smidge better.

Nice . Both events.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, better at hour 6.

Dont be stupid 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts

It was better but ended up flatter.

Just now, wxman said:

Where are you accessing the GFS AI (aside from Pivotal)?

Stormvista

Gfs

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming west

Initially but flatter. Skim job.

Gfs AI is a good hit

Just now, Lucy Pull said:

Looked better at hr36. Flatter by 48.

Yep . Skim job.

Meanwhile the GFSAI is a good hit.

Gfs might be coming west

Gfs might be coming west here

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t know, I thought Reggie looked okay. Definitely not like the NAM.

ICON is a whiff but I thought it improved a bit 

Icon did improve but not at the surface 

Just now, wxman said:

Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z.

2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events.

Reggie is a light snowfall 

Reggie is still decent but slightly lowered amounts.

Icon miss

Reggie slightly flatter

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bad start to 12z

Nothing is that far south and east.  Weird run.

Nam is way south. Very weird.

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it

Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas.

Nam looks like a miss for Sunday. Way south. Weird.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think. 

Looks worse than 6z

HRRR has 1-3 inches for NYC tomorrow

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform…

 

I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude…

La Niña and the calendar reigns…

 

Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum.

 

If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during next two weeks.

 

This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well. 

MJO will be flying through phase 7 like you said.  

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol

Everyone gave up .Thats why.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed.

The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+.

Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. 

We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. 

EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

 

 

Phase 8 should help

Gefs lighting up like a Christmas tree

Gefs is insane