MJO812

If only this was January 

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Starting to get hints if color in Westchester and north. Break out the pumpkin spice

Dunkin Donuts already have it.

AI gfs is further west of 12z run with the coastal. Another model that shows a wet week ahead. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Brutal run if true

Welcome to El Nino

Gfs has rain all week next week for the NYC area

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Plenty of 80s to come. There's 3 coming this week alone. 

Next week looks cool and wet

61 here

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

love these cancel winter predictions in September especially when the Cansips model is now predicting the warmest water in the Pacific to be in the central area of the Pacific  (Modoki) not along the South America coast. I am suspecting that this upcoming winter will be similar to last winter - for different reasons of course  -especially mid -late January through February

If even people predicted a cold and snowy winter, its too early for winter predictions. 

This winter doesnt look as bad as people are making it out to be.  This winter will not be as cold as last winter though. 

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats Apps and OHRV.

True

El ninos are better the further south you go . I wouldnt be shocked if they do well especially if blocking develops. 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's easy to look at the color scheme and want to take a plunge off of the Tobin, but it's not bad at all and fits with the more fruitful super El Nino scenarios.

 Congrats DC?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not bad at all for down here 

Showers here

Mike Masco

THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING...

I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto.

This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds:

GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF

Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland?

This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south.

This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February.

THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN

I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker.

This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country.

A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE

So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter.

You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture.

A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S.

The million-dollar question for the Northeast:

Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time?

That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important.

Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together.

Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Mike Masco

THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING...

I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto.

This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds:

GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF

Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland?

This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south.

This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February.

 THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN

I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker.

This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country.

A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely.

THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE

So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter.

You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture.

A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S.

The million-dollar question for the Northeast:

Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? 

That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important.

Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together.

Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must be a tri-state thing

Use to it

47 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Garbage piled on the sides of every street now smells like pumpkin spice?

Lol

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.

The smell of pumpkin spice.

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1 storm can do wonders. Get ready.

4 hours ago, TriPol said:

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season. 

Yep just like Jan 2016.  That's one of the analog years everyone is throwing around ( 2015-2016 ).

Good thing is that the STJ will be very active so there shouldn't be a shortage of storms even if they are rain or a mix bag.