MJO812

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34 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

06z GFS not going for the north trend and looks reasonably similar to previous GFS runs. 

Gfs looks great.  HRRR also.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Who is they? We are they!

Fluffy snow is cold drier snow. If snow is flirting with changeover, its wetter, more dense

Mr G and a few others on Twitter. 

Temps are below freezing 

41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when will winter storm watches be changed to winter weather advisories for the nyc metro?

No warnings ?

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

yikes

Scattered amounts

Nothing wrong with these amounts

Euro is 3-6 inches 

4-8 with Kuchera

Euro AI . Bump up from 18z.

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

but this isn't a SWFE storm it's a NWFE (North west flow event)

Yep its not a strong storm either. 

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

No. It does not. I've seen South Jersey have sleet while our area gets snow. That being said, this is going to be a wet snow which cuts back on ratio. A lot of people are saying we could get 4-6 inches. I think that's reasonable. 4-6 inches of wet, sloppy snow.

They are saying fluffy snow, not wet snow.

We go through this with every storm. People are always nervous.

Rgem looks decent 

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Weenie suicides incoming

Uh ?

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Beware of the north moving snow band. I still maintain my call that I expect mixing up through NYC. It’s a hallmark of these types of storms, hard to bet against it 

We know

Icon slightly north 

Fv3 looks great 

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

lol oh boy.

NAM is ugly!

Its always like this. Horrible. 

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

My God

Long range

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Now that’s a shift 

Typical Nam bullshit ?

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Looks like NAM will come north, but I'm more interested in the precipitation distribution and intensity. 

Edit; it's actually a pretty big shift.

LOL nam

Way north

Nam is way north. Congrats new England.

LOL nam

30 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Big decrease in snow totals by the NBM. Models feeling the big block to the north likely shedding the storm a bit. If we can get a big thump before the warm nose in the middle atmosphere, it’ll still allow for 3-6”. Let’s hope the north trend doesn’t continue too much or we’ll be sleeting. These heavy bands usually set up shop further north than expected. Id Expect that trend isn’t done yet 

Of course you think this will trend north .

No model has warm nose past NYC

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The weather will do what it does, and if we can't get the goods, at least people in this subforum will. 

It's fine to be cautious, can't imagine why you always take it as a personal insult. You've been let down thousands of times, throw a little caution to the wind from time to time. 

Either way, love the evolution of the storm since getting snow from a storm moving SE around the periphery of a HP/block is so highly anomalous. 

Enjoy 

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Getting a little dicey down here

Stop

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Gotta hope those northwest ticks stop right about now.

And this morning we were worried about suppression.  Just enjoy tracking .

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow 

Always the case

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

Are you really complaining?

Insane how this storm evolved

From mild weather with rain with the storm hitting Northern New England to a snowstorm with temps in the 20s.