MJO812

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice chilly rain for NYC

We track.  That would slide ENE.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna need to be in for this one with that retreating high. 

Euro is now closer

Euro would also be closer

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS 

Way amped

Gfs continues to be the most amped model. Inland does really well. Rain for the coast. 

Weeklies are cold right through early January .

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

Its below average through the 1st week of January  even here also.

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........

I thought the Euro is usually overamped and the gfs is too progressive.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Good point

If we want to see snow on the coast we have to hope for the trough to pass the coast before the precip comes up so it can ride the boundary. We also have to hope that the flow slows down.

We haven't had a big phase in a long time . Can we finally have one ?

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

So the Euro is worse too ? - similar solution as Ukmet - Euro Ai and Canadian 

Euro AI ensembles are west of the op. I expect the ridge on the east coast to pump more due to the negative PNA.  I expect shifts west but the question becomes how much far west?

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously. 

Euro is also weak and suppressed. 

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON also joined the party

Ukie is very weak

9 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

A reminder for those who have incorrectly stated that we had nothing to track early last winter...

 

Gefs

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Enjoy the rain. Just busting chops. Fun to be tracking again!

Im expecting that. Enjoy the snow. 

8 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

12Z GFS is rain for NYC verbatim.

Still something to track 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.

Im saying that the PV will not become strong.  I expect cold most of this month with active conditions.   Beating a dead horse ? Snowman, you have been wrong so far about this upcoming pattern along with others. I wouldn't be puffing your chest out if I was you. 

Why are you ignoring the MJO projection . 

PV will take another hit soon.

PV forecast

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is based on RMM phases not specific to La Nina or El Nino. Phase 8/1 doesn't become as conducive until we head into January and February for the east. I wouldn't expect blazing temps but I certainly wouldn't expect downright frigid outside of the colder period until about mid December/3rd week.

Still feel pretty confident in the warming potential as we move into christmas week and the new year. Surely things can change and it will be interesting to see if it does but overall I would expect near normal through much of the east with above normal across the SE.

The true test will be what happens with the December 2nd/3rd system and how that sets up. We will be able to see if the models are overzealous in either direction with respect to the SER or cold pressing into SE Canada.

Phase 8 and Phase 1 are cold in negative enso years.

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO

Quite possible. Just need the right track. Here is the 6z gfs 

Ukie is also on board with the storm along the front.

Just now, eduggs said:

The 0z GFS is an absolutely filthy glutton for snow. I'm going to pretend I didn't see the extended run and keep my personal focus on the mid-range.

Nice ridge out west and plenty of cold. What a turnaround from the models.