MJO812

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much. 

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings) 

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker”

 

I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.

And the low to the east of the main low 

Just now, eduggs said:

The RGEM run isn't encouraging. Worst run in several cycles.

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings) 

Record lows tonight ?

Very close. It then goes ENE from here.

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z ICON is slight improvement. stronger low, tick nw

Very close. It then goes ENE from here.

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work

Exactly

I still think the models are focusing on the convection to the east.

31 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This winter has been one big kick in the b*lls despite getting the last storm 

 Best winter here in years.

Average is 28. Im at 23.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck.   Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry.  Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it. 

They are awful

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Ah, the good old there’s enough snow on the ground so thankfully it’s not coming copium

 

I feel you man. I’m upset too 

I hate missing out on storms when we have a cold pattern. 

53 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday. 

Definitely 

Thats ruining this storm 

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

Just like you during winter storms 

23 minutes ago, Irish said:

So basically Bernie Rayno was right. 

The AI models  were right once again. The stupid 2 low scenario ruined this threat. 

24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Absolutely brutal. Waste of cold air

06z euro is literally not even an inch for Long Island 

Waste ? We just had a big snowstorm.

57 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Every models has this stupid appendage/second low that forms way NE and it just chases right behind it out to sea. lost that dumbbell Fuji look from yesterday that pulled us all in.

Thats what is ruining this setup.  

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yep i knew that 18Z EC/EPS was bullshit. its been happening all winter...watch 6Z come back again. 

Ok, this time i think it's safe to say she's gone, though for you, you might be scraped. For CT its gone. 

Very weird but its over for us

4 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

We’re cooked chat.

Yes we are.

Off hour runs suck. Never trust them. 

Off hour runs suck. Never trust them. 

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is probably one of those cases where probability of exceedance does a better job than QPF mean at characterizing the likelihood of impact. A few high QPF members are likely skewing the mean.

Alot of decent hits