MJO812

Very cruel

Snow is so close to the coast right now

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1995575448089309449?s=19

Another warming event on the way

Judah Cohen

1 hour ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Yup right on queue for the Christmas Torch

Not this year

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Looks like your musing that the SPV regains strength back to climo/average (no not above normal strength) was a good one after all
 

 

 

 

 

When hasn't the polar vortex recovered strength after it was weakened ?lol

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still some hope that Friday/Saturday event gives us something 

Its too early to give up on that one. Lets see what the models do once tomorrow's storm leaves.

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Sure. But we already see the pattern unfolding. huggers and suppressed, the dominant pattern since 2018.

You can see into the future past this month? The MJO haven't even went into phase 8.

36 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Not gonna happen cause it went poof. Bluewave is right. We either get cutters/coastal huggers like Tues, or when the actual cold is in place like this weekend, suppressed tracks. The atmosphere in the 2020s is finding every way to not track a low up the benchmark when there's cold air around in the east. It's like a lesson in how to not get snow

Its December 1 for crying out loud.

17 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Looks like another interior event. Who could have guessed

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

Its a week away. Models have been horrible.

Latest 

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here. 

Its not just 1 run. The eps has been schooling the gefs 

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

Gefs just folded in the long range. Check out the differences.

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Every post gets a terd emoji from Tiger torch…what an insufferable poster that guy is. Just plain Sad. 

Dont feel bad

I get a weenie emoji all the time from snowman19. 

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably some white rain at the onset, maybe even a little grass accumulation at best but will all turn to rain with temps near 40F. 

Agree

All rain event for the coast

45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be riding the line looking at OP models. NNE heavily favored 

Why look at the op runs ? Are you new ?

Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8.  Thank you

Yes full month of December into January. Dont worry I kept many of your failed calls.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

Paul Roundy also thinks it has a good chance of that. 

Its going to do something you haven't seen in many decades and that it will stay in phase 8 for 3 weeks and if its 4 I wouldn't be shocked .

And say goodbye to the warmups that were predicted .

Enjoy

Updated euro mjo

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately. 

AI is still a work in progress but it has been doing well.

Congrats on winter storm Chan

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

11/30 MJO 2 week runs 

11/30 EPS: steady as can be (4th day in a row very similar) phase 8 12/3-14+, which would be the longest phase 8 in 50 years for any winter month!

 

To show how consistent it has been, the EPS had this on 11/27 run, phase 8 12/3-11+:

—————

GEFS 11/30 (not as consistent as EPS, which has been doing better with phase 7 than GEFS): also has phase 8 start Dec 3rd:

 

 

JMA 11/30: phase 8 12/3-10+

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. Paul Roundy thinks we will be cold through January .

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 11/30 0z and 6z GEFS has returned to a warmer outlook for much of North America after December 10th. It offers a credible alternative scenario.

I'm still going with the EPS/ECMWF weeklies, as the GEFS has shown inconsistency. Moreover, the size of the rebound in temperatures (December 11-20 vs. December 1-10) would be both extreme and rare. 

Nevertheless, a look at the alternative scenario is still in order as a muted variation is plausible. The GEFS's development of a fairly strong PNA- is the key variable differentiating it from the colder baseline idea shown on the EPS. The latest two cycles of the GEFS show the development of a WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- pattern. The GEFS maps are consistent with the largest cluster for the December 5-15 period (39%) of cases.

WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- Maps (Largest December 5-15 cluster):

500 mb Height Anomalies:

Temperature Anomalies:

GEFS (11/30 6z cycle): Days 11-15:

500 mb Height Anomalies (5-day average):

Temperature anomalies (5-day average):

 

Yep the gefs has been awful