MJO812

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

Para gfs now has a few inches for the coast

3 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

There's no arguing with him. He's gonna show you clown maps that show the Catskills and Berks with 3 inches to make his flamethrower argument. 

That map is too low for interior areas anyway.

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

On weather bell when you zoom into NYC, the snow moves in by 2pm. By 4pm the sleet and rain moves in and temperatures are 32/33 the entire time although you can't take any model verbatim. I agree it can certainly over perform if the storm moves in earlier but there's more of a probability of getting less than more. Either way it will be nice to see our first winter storm. Hopefully it's a sign of whats to come this season. 

Exactly

Bickering is already starting. This will be a fun winter =)

With the low dew points modeled, everyone excluding eastern LI should start off as snow.

1 minute ago, RockerfellerSnow said:

These CAD setups tend to over perform. I just hope I win my bet win psv88

Yep

We will not know about the precip until the storm is occuring.

We have seen these storms overperform and also underperform.

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Exactly. 

Like I said it will come down to the amount of precip and how much cold air is still around.

These types of storms like to come earlier than modeled.

We might either be looking at several inches or just an inch

Temps will hover around freezing all day so it will be close.

Alot of sleet will happen in the city. Question will be if it will stick.

29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

An inch.

It shows several inches

Wrong map

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The NAM verbatim is a degree or 2 warmer for the city and immediate burbs at the surface and precip shifted NW

3k Nam has several inches for the city

Nam is fine

Hi res nam still has a few inches for the city

11 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

EURO looks slightly better than 0Z for NYC metro.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018111412/new-jersey/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20181116-0000z.html

Few inches for the city

This is going to come down to how much front end thump we get.

Ukie also shows a few inches for the coast

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not much. Its warmer again.

It has a few inches

Nam has the city around freezing throughout the day.

Very messy tomorrow

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Long range looks good though. Decent Pacific and Atlantic. 

Might be a snowy December. First time in a long time.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a cutter after T-Day.

As of right now

10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The upper jet associated with bombogenesis over Labrador this morning continues to impress.

300mb wind speeds at Gray, ME - only ever exceeded in Jan-Feb during the period of record:

Yarmouth, NS exceeded 200KT at a few levels:

 

The blocking that will take place is really impressive.

It has been several years since we had a snowy December.

All the indices look great as we move into late month.

Nam is slightly colder

Coating to an inch is likely for NYC and coast with higher amounts inland.

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

The EURO showing this several runs in a row... it can’t be discounted.

This is mostly sleet accumulations

Still impressive for November

5 hours ago, David-LI said:

Sorry weenies. GFS is a rainstorm. You might see a flake or two inland.

Never use the gfs in cad situations

I think the coast ends up with sleet and snow to some rain with accumulations on colder surfaces.

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Looking more like nothing, hopefully extended sleet. And we'll see, LR forecasts are worthless to me. We are spoiled here now. It's hard to keep this up.

We will start off as sleet and snow since dews will be low.

The long range warmth is now gone on the models. All the tellies are becoming favorable .

Watch for a snowstorm possibly at the end of this month of early december.

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yep. Going the wrong way. Very swift warm push aloft.

These situations are fickle

Take anything we can get since its only mid November.

We will get plenty of snow this winter starting late this month.

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

TBH, we were just outside most of the big storms last year in our area. I have seen snow in Nov, heck we had significant snow in Nov 2012 right after Sandy, with Freehold getting 13 inches. Maybe Unc can check this out, but Nov snows seem to correlate with less snowy winters IIRC. Let's hope for an interesting winter. 

You don't have to worry about that

This winter is going to rock

Temps are near freezing for the coast

Pretty impressive