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Posts posted by MJO812
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On 10/10/2017 at 6:39 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said:
Yeah I remember now, that was an amazing winter with amazing snowpack for almost 7 weeks if I'm not mistaken
Several inches in December
Very warm January
Big blizzard in February
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On 10/10/2017 at 7:26 PM, uncle W said:
2005-06 snowfall was 30-35" for most of the city...Central Park's 26.9" was the most recorded in the city...I recorded 18" on Staten Island...
17 here
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Weaker version of Sandy redux on the 0z and 6z GFS in weenie range
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2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:
Based on my calculations I think Brownsville, TX or south of there could get a hurricane or tropical storm the next week to 10 days.
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
00z ECMWF is coming west and closer to OBX. That in itself is important. Maria comes close enough to create some excitement. But the pattern looks less than favorable for an intense system. Going on track alone, the threat is increased. But to be optimistic, the hurricane itself is significantly weaker in that environment. We have to take the shift west seriously however.
Eps is also very close to Hatteras
Wagons west
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8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Maria has Carolina on her mind according to the GFS
Further west
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GFS keeps showing a possible coastal low on October 1-2.
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5 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:
But again - is there anything pushing her anywhere close to landfall? Not really. The ULL is weak. The ridge isnt in the right place (its more under the ridge as it builds back than on the periphery).
Like I said yesterday - there will be just enough model uncertainty to keep weenies hoping for a landfall, but no realistic shot at one. I mean just to put a fine point on it - the NHC track right now has Maria about as close to Bermuda as the Outer Banks. We are now at the point where landfall is 4-5 days away if its going to happen, and it would take a huge shift by both the Euro and GFS which are showing basically the same solution, to get a landfall. 5% maybe at best.The percentage of hitting the U.S is very low but not impossible.
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47 minutes ago, mappy said:
With two Hs in place, and a weak ULL that won't amount to much, a direct east coast hit from Maria just isn't in the cards.
It will come down to the trough . Maria will come west if the trough is slower than modeled. Still some time but as of right now Maria looks ots.
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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?
Gefs are also west of 12z and closer to the coast
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Jose is still around the U.S at 162 hours and coming back west towards the coast. Maria looks to go OTS on this run due to Jose being there.
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Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane
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12z Euro retrogrades Jose into NYC
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Fall 2017 Banter Thread
in New York City Metro
Posted