MJO812

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

00z ECMWF is coming west and closer to OBX. That in itself is important. Maria comes close enough to create some excitement. But the pattern looks less than favorable for an intense system. Going on track alone, the threat is increased. But to be optimistic, the hurricane itself is significantly weaker in that environment. We have to take the shift west seriously however.

 

 

 

Eps is also very close to Hatteras

Wagons west

8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Maria has Carolina on her mind according to the GFS

Further west

Gefs west of previous runs

Jose will be a big part of where Maria will go. It looks like Maria will follow Jose so if Jose goes further south and west, I wonder if Jose will follow.

GFS keeps showing a possible coastal low on October 1-2.

5 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:

But again - is there anything pushing her anywhere close to landfall? Not really. The ULL is weak. The ridge isnt in the right place (its more under the ridge as it builds back than on the periphery). 

Like I said yesterday - there will be just enough model uncertainty to keep weenies hoping for a landfall, but no realistic shot at one. I mean just to put a fine point on it - the NHC track right now has Maria about as close to Bermuda as the Outer Banks. We are now at the point where landfall is 4-5 days away if its going to happen, and it would take a huge shift by both the Euro and GFS which are showing basically the same solution, to get a landfall. 5% maybe at best.

The percentage of hitting the U.S is very low but not impossible.

47 minutes ago, mappy said:

With two Hs in place, and a weak ULL that won't amount to much, a direct east coast hit from Maria just isn't in the cards. 

It will come down to the trough . Maria will come west if the trough is slower than modeled. Still some time but as of right now Maria looks ots.

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Re: Maria track.....are the GGEM and NAVGEM really horrible with tropical systems? I've read here countless times that we should never even bother looking at those models in terms of tropics. I only mention it because both clearly weaken Jose quicker, re-establish a ridge, and thus going to take Maria in the East Coast it appears. Should they be completely discarded or should we use them for hints irt Jose weakening so rapidly (not exact Maria track verbatim)?

Gefs are also west of 12z and closer to the coast

LOL

Jose is still around the U.S at 162 hours and coming back west towards the coast. Maria looks to go OTS on this run due to Jose being there.

Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane

GFS now also shows a  Hatteras hit

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Okay?

12z Euro retrogrades Jose into NYC

lol

On 12/8/2016 at 3:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

He has started posting them in the New England forum too occasionally...might have to delete his account.

My forecast was for 2-3 feet of snow, even in that morning. All the schools were closed the day of the storm. I was really excited to see a big blizzard. The storm started off with temps in the upper 30s with drizzle and it stayed like that for a while. I knew something was because the changeover was supposed to be quick, not take its time. The changeover did occur but not until the night time . I only received 5 inches of snow out of this storm instead of 2-3 feet.

How much does Boston have?

Have fun up there guys.

4Km nam floater over Bos has a 3.97 qpf max directly over NYC

4+ QPF for NYC lol

WPC thinks the trough is taking on a negative tilt