MJO812

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1039603018214395905/photo/1

In regards to this storm

22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It looks like the stall is happening offshore on most of those.  If this trend continues, it would be terrible for beach erosion/flooding/surge but probably better for inland areas, as there should be some weakening of the storm.  Wouldn't it be nice for once to have a storm that maintained motion for the duration?

It's  amazing how the models are still up in the air where the storm will stall.

Hope it stalls offshore

My friend just moved to Robersonville a few years ago. She just bought a generator yesterday.

I told her to evacuate but she is going to stay put.

I agree about a mid Atlantic strike but don't let your guard over here just yet

Gefs Is still offshore and further north.

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GA/SC threat increasing. gfs otl with track and intensity, as usual.

Hatteras more likely then ride the coast

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I posted this in another thread but will ask it here. If Florence does regain her strength and comes in hard at like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't the tendency for storms over the ocean to be steered polewards / North ? 

Yes that is usually the case. Models might be overestimating the ridge.

We shall see

3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Yeah this threat is all but dead for our area unless the WAR suddenly gets weaker for next week, which seems unlikely.

Plenty of time left

18z gfs has the war slightly weaker. Alot of rain for our area.

12z had this up the coast yesterday. I was really looking forward to TS conditions next week.

Sad times but thank god it's not a winter storm.

3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Just by watching model trends I am beginning to believe this will end up being much more concerning and will end up being devastating for a lot of North Carolina.

Every model now has landfall near NC

Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time.

Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area.

I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol

4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

So basically we either get a lot of rain, a lot of wind, or another stretch of 90+/75+.

Yay.

Pretty boring

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I am on board with forky.

We still don't know how strong the ridge will be

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB says into the Carolina's with a curve Northward after landfall...lots of rain central PA/MD/VA

That's how it looks right now

Majority of the hurricane models have a hatteras hit with some north of there.

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

flo will probably pass well to our south while we get a heat wave

Quite possible with the big ridge

This is still not a done deal in regards to the track. I remember last year when the models had a few storms modeled up here and then changed at the last minute.

Euro and cmc are well south into the Carolinas.

Gfs still recurves this

Euro and cmc landfall well south

6 minutes ago, MarkO said:

GFS 926 100 miles east of the DelMarVa:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090612&fh=162

This should have been more west than what it showed due to a stronger ridge in the Atlantic than the 12z run.

1 minute ago, snow1 said:

Stop the wishcasting please. This will trend more east like all Mets are saying. 

Stop being an annoying weenie.

Who is saying east ?

No one is wishcasting 

11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I don’t understand why some people want a category 5 to hit the city! That would be catastrophic.

It's not going to be a cat 5

6 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

gFS coming in more east 

This should have been more west than what it showed due to a stronger ridge in the Atlantic than the 12z run.

The media is starting to warn the public about this storm.

Latest cone
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204622_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png