MJO812

Enjoy guys

Maybe but the pattern after next weekend gets better .

Ukie is doing the best with the system for this weekend. It never showed a storm riding the coast.

Huge coastal storm next weekend on the GFS Inland snow and coastal rain

200+ hours out

The PV is taking a beating on the latest GFS

AO going negative around the 15th PNA positive around the 15th NAO going negative around the 15th Possibly our next storm?

AO going negative around the 15th PNA positive around the 15th NAO going negative around the 15th

What happened? I was only 1 year old.

Very brief warmup Possible storm around the 15th?

Much further south than 12z

It's amazing how the models barely moved from showing a southern snowstorm. The confluence is too strong. Maybe the models are missing the northern stream phasing into the storm. We will see on Saturday.

It's over Squashed in December We will get our fair share of snow starting the 2nd half of December

I can't believe a storm is being squashed in early December SMH

I can't believe a storm is being squashed in early December SMH

Crippling snow on the way Enjoy

Mt Holly says don't give up just yet "The 12z ECMWF and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1) force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern- stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough, suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important feature. With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern- stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture."

Mt Holly says don't give up just yet "The 12z ECMWF and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1) force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern- stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough, suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important feature. With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern- stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture."

Top analog from CIPS is 12/19/2009.

They might get a few inches

Eps is north of the euro This isn't over at all. Let's hope for a north trend starting today.

Looks like central Jersey might get a few inches tomorrow from a norlun

GFS looks better Confluence moved out faster and better ridge in the west

Much further north than the 18z run with the confluence further north

Jinx