MJO812

Nam and Euro has 2-3 feet for the NYC area. Upton issued blizzard warnings and the statement that they issued was scary. " Dangerous crippling blizzard on the way "

What a winter the south is having. No one predicted this.

Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =)

Another snow event for the South ? Incredible

From PB JB "While phasing and a huge storm is on the table, what is also on the table is a lesser phased system meteorologically but still a large storm..one with a distinct area of high ratio snow, The northern feature may never link up with the southern feature, or simply lead it, But a healthy pressure fall center coming southeast and then east through the Ohio Valley with a Banana shaped arctic high over it, means enough convergence to produce a healthy swath of snow with old school upward motion/5k temp 20 to 30 to 1 ideas getting involved. Naturally, where you can intersect the two, phase the trough, have the big high, and deepen a storm with -8 around, you can produce a punishing storm, That is what the GFS is trying to do. I said on the Avenger this morning I liked where the positive was in southern Canada for the mid-Atlantic into the northeast for this. I would like the MJO to hold in phase 8 an extra day or two The Euro looks rather strange to me, though trending stronger, because what is on its tail off the west coast should kick more energy out in the southern branch quicker and argues for the phasing, My usual correction to the euro is to kick that out, my usual correction to the GFS is to take storms north, Since the GFS is already north, This storm is a bit like the 2003 storm in that there was not a strong negative with that storm, There was alot of high pressure around, and the upper heights were not that low, but the gradient was there. Sudden shortening can produce that, The gradient between a 980 mb low and 1020 high is the same as one between a 1000 mb and 1040. My point is if you look at the heights, the trough is not that strong with 552 heights The euros dragging of energy is going to cause it problems so at this time while I can't discount it, partly because of the MJO considerations, it looks very strange to me I see this map with what is behind this, and I think this should march out on its merry way like the GFS, with enough northern branch feeding in to produce the storm This ( GFS ) looks better Like I said with the kicker behind it, why should it stop bringing the whole trough out.. But keeping it behind and feeding out pieces it destroys the major storm idea. I think the answer is in between My take is that the Euro is too weak, the GFS is better, but the MJO collapsing or heading into 1 complicates the matter for me. So from now I think a lesser idea than the GFS, but stronger than the euro is where I am The best idea may be the GEFS ensemble we can enhance the snow when we settle on the -8C isotherm"

The retrostorm of 2010 was great. I had 4 inches here in the morning before it turned to rain during the afternoon then turned back to snow and it came down hard with thunder. I lost power for a little.

I got 2 inches while my aunt in Staten island received 7 inches.

My 2 favorite blizzards are Boxing Day and January 2016.

DT "**ALERT** RETURN OF WINTER EASTERN US AFTER DEC 30 INCREASINGLY LIKELY /3 Good chance Low develops on the front-- this could set the stage for Moderate snow from DC/ BAL to NYC in the DEC 31- JAN 1 time frame"

Eps further north also

You are worse than I am

He hasn't been good lately

All of you better take a lot of pics

Enjoy guys

Crippling snow on the way Enjoy

Jinx

Enjoy man I didn't know you moved down south

This is a rare event for the south. Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ?

LOL

You shouldn't congrats anyone a few days out. Anyway, this looks good for the south as of right now. I hope we all cash in up and down the coast.

Still a long way to go Hopefully we all cash in

Congrats D.C? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/29/forecasters-private-sector-strongly-favor-snowy-winter-washington/

Larry Cogrove "The turn to colder air over much of the U.S. in this past week is really only the start of some major weather changes. Because as we approach Halloween, the threat for a large scale major storm and follow-up cold spell will be increasing. A prominent Kelvin wave is solidifying over the westernmost Pacific Ocean above Indonesia. As the Madden-Julian Oscillation is expanding eastward, this impulse may link with the polar westerlies (see shortwaves in the PRC and east of Japan), and start the process of amplifying the jet stream with a ridge over Alaska and western/northern Canada. That action would force digging of a 500MB shortwave into the lower Great Plains around Oct 25. Now this is the important part! At the same time that cold air drainage and central U.S. disturbance is taking shape, the tropical Atlantic Basin may supply a warm-core impulse or moisture fetch into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two viable candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis (Caribbean Sea and Lesser Antilles), and one or both of these systems could get drawn into the deepening extratropical storm as it approaches Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Oct 27-29."

A tropical system will come up the coast

It's amazing how the models are still up in the air where the storm will stall. Hope it stalls offshore