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Iceresistance

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    December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

    the more I look at this.. .it's sort of a weird rare scenario, of having a decent nascent polar air mass, with a mid let wind field running astride/N of the boundary; in fact..it's hard to single out main velocity tube there...it's like throwing vorticity shrapnel along the polar side. 

    Anyway, the lengthens the time of maximization of QPF mechanics.   ...uh, snows and or mixes and or rains for a long time - longer than the total velocity of the ambient atmosphere would suggest.  ha.  I mean, typically, we don't see it snow for 15 hours with things moving this fast.

    You know what this reminds me of?   Not sure if you were around in 1994... but we started getting into these longish duration events that were also moving fast ( once Xmas was safely behind and ruined... heh).  That circumstance was an oddball super synoptic set up where the NAO was so hugely positive it more in essence ...backed SW, and compressed the flow...  Then disturbances ran up into the fast field and stretched out and by virtue of extension ...events lasted long.  

    In a way, this is a strong +AO ...but it too is biased S and is compressing matters. 

    I've been around since 2003, I was born in CT.

    This is an unusual setup as well, we don't usually have a big snowstorm anywhere from the Central Plains to the East Coast with a +NAO, +AO, & +EPO

    December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    I am singularly impressed at the stunning continuity of the GFS runs ... Going back like 5 cycles, it's hard to really glean enough differences to mean a whole helluva lot.

    Comparing that to the Euro... well, all foreign operational runs I have seen for that matter, quite paltry - not sure ... 

    Continuity is one of the forecasting bullet points.  But this is obviously a total scenario and street cred ( lol ) that makes things a bit more textured than that. hmm..

    This 12z run - does anyone have those frontogenic charts ??  Just looking at the 500 mb evolution, that looks like some decent embedded banding there. 

    Also, this thing is trying to model ( GFS ) as an over-producer.  That's some heavy QPF for a flat, open wave.  Looks to me as though the GFS initiates a heck of a warm boundary with rich theta-e in the TV and really thrusts it rapidly to about a mid Jersey to CIN type latitude, and with that much 500 mb wind acceleration on the N side of that 90 hour position, you end up with quite the up glide into an exit-entrance mid level jet field.

    The GEFS is also being somewhat consistent as well, here's the Mean Snowfall up to 7 days out on the 12z, even though that the signal is somewhat weaker compared to 6z

    New-England-Snow.png

     

     

    December 2021 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

    Fake cook co

    NWS has proof against that

     

    Quote 
    ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 10 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Cook County. This includes the Tribal Lands
  of the Grand Portage Reservation.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The worst conditions should be during the
  day on Sunday.

     

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