Iceresistance

The STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is just too low across Oklahoma & Texas . . . 

This 12z GFS model sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +12 hours proves why this might be a tough forecast . . . 


 

EDIT: This sounding is likely contaminated, the bars are shooting off to the right . . . 

For me, it's the Erratic Behavior of Supercells, they can suddenly stall, change direction or speed up . . .

I once tracked a Supercell that went over Norman in 2020 (Last Year) & it was projected to die away near Pink, OK because of unfavorable environment, but it literally STALLED over Norman & dumped very heavy rain in the City because it did NOT want to die & likely shoved the instability so it can move again (I fell asleep after it stalled over Norman because it was after 9 PM . . .)

The Hobart Supercell in April was a very good example of erratic movement, it once blew up over Texas & headed NE, but when it headed for Hobart, it literally went from NE to E in just a few minutes! They seem to act like they have a mind of their own!

This is my first Forum & Post here, but there is a chance for severe weather across Kansas, Far Southern Nebraska, & into Missouri with up to Tennis Ball sized hail in Kansas, up to 70 mph winds, and a Tornado threat . . . 

 

It's May, & severe weather season is in full swing!