Iceresistance

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I bet you will see higher attendance once they can go full capacity. IMO, people who have been staying home and not doing much are all itching to get out and do things again. 

Same here! Except I've itching to see my Great-Grandmother (She's 90), I've not seen her since December 2019!

I've been hearing that the Anti-vaxxers will indirectly create lockdowns by upticks in cases in Winter 2021-2022, I really hope that's not the case at all! Could lose BILLIONS in economic losses & damage . . . 

(I'm NOT an Anti-Vaxxer, the reason why I've recently got the final shot was because of potential schedule conflicts . . . )

The CPC has put out ANOTHER chance of very heavy rain on the 20th! 

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do it!!! It will be alot of fun

I've just activated my own alert system on S2K, my coverage area is from the Dakotas to Texas & eastward to North Carolina . . .

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

no this is New England specific 

Well, I can make one myself!   

Is there going to be one in the Southern Plains?

9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody here get the Covid vaccine?

Yes, I'm 100% Vaccinated with Pfizer

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

Yes yes yes!  Can’t wait til the mask mandate is lifted too. Hopefully soon in both VA and MD. 

Oklahoma never had a statewide Mask Mandate, they let the counties decide whether or not to do so, the reason why was clear: Heavily Forested Eastern Oklahoma & Rural Western Oklahoma . . .  

I'm 100% Vaccinated with Pfizer, Oklahoma is doing very well against the Coronavirus, averaging less that 1,000 cases a day . . . 

Around 40% has 1 dose as of Today since Vaccine #1 was issued . . . 

24 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Looks like a weakening closed low will be moving into the plains early next week which shouldn't bring much of a severe threat I would think, at least for the first part of the week. Could bring quite a bit of rain though.

SPC hinting at a possible severe threat after that though. 

Several News Channels (KFOR News 4 & News 9 to name a few.) have highlighted Next Monday & Tuesday to have potential severe weather . . . The uncertainty on the Cut-off low is too high . . . 

Y'all in the southern plains need to be flood ready! Very strong CPC signals for SE Texas to be DRENCHED!

On 5/11/2021 at 6:30 PM, Castaway said:

Warned now for Duval, McMullen and live oak counties in south central Texas.

 

Oh dear, that is a very potent supercell! 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lawton, OK for 60 mph winds & Quarter sized hail . . .

4 Inch hail has been reported last night in Ponder, TX

I've just looked at the dew points for the 12z Euro & GFS models . . . 

The GFS has dew points near 70ºF next week, that is going to be pure torture on that part . . . 

The Euro has only up to the Upper 60s, but that is very humid . . . I can't tolerate the crazy humidity very well . . . 

34 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . 

The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . 

Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . 

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

 

That is a lucky find considering it just molted into a Adult . . .

When I find the Yearly Cicadas in Oklahoma, it's rarely the larva & mostly adults & shells . . .

Models are hinting a potential Outbreak Sequence across the Southern & Central Plains late this week & into this coming weekend, but the predictability is too low . . .

Mid-May is looking more active, hinted from the CPC



The risk of heavy rain usually concedes with Supercell Activity since they usually dump a LOT of rain in short periods of time . . .

Severe Storms are no longer expected for Western Oklahoma . . .

Storm tried firing up N of Hollis, the Cap won on that failed cell . . .

18/7/3

ACE: 155

The Cicada Army is coming there, it's been taking over National headlines, there are estimates that there are 'Trillions' to emerge this year, good luck finding earphones for this year . . . 

I have the Yearly Cicadas & they are LOUD!

 I was looking at the soundings & I found these from the 18z NAM model:

Near Tecumseh, OK


Near Norman, OK

3 hours ago, Quincy said:

I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase.

I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. 

It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell. 

The SPC did put out the marginal risk for that reason, the uncertainty for storms is just too high . . . 

Many lower risk days have been over-performing lately, should this be next? I doubt it, but Never say Never with Weather!

EDIT: Well, the Dryline is showing itself in NW Texas & SW Oklahoma . . .