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Mount Joy Snowman

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Everything posted by Mount Joy Snowman

  1. Mount Joy Snowman
    The 0z HRRR is picking up on major mixing across the southern tier counties very early in the storm. Would basically be a non-event for most of Lancaster County. It’s near the end of its range sooooo. But still a bit worrisome, as I’ve seen it sniff out thermal issues at range a number of times before. Hopefully wrong but food for thought. Aye.
  2. Mount Joy Snowman
    I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. The grid forecasts can get wonky with how and when they update. Lord knows if you are rain by 4pm we’ve been basically skunked down here ha.
  3. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yes I’ve seen them do that and like the attention to detail. Completely agree.
  4. Mount Joy Snowman
    Some neighboring Offices for those interested.....looks to be pretty consistent....
  5. Mount Joy Snowman
    The NAM definitely came in a little colder but the Kuchera map is about as paltry as we've seen for central PA. Not great.
  6. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here.
  7. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yes sir. No doubt. As has been stated, we're gonna need rates down here. Big rates before the LLJ gets cranking off the ocean.
  8. Mount Joy Snowman
    FWIW, and it's probably not much ha, but here is 18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm Saturday.....
  9. Mount Joy Snowman
    No York or Lancaster. Thinking an advisory for us. Fitting.
  10. Mount Joy Snowman
    Home. West Hempfield.
  11. Mount Joy Snowman
    Well would you look at that, a nice graupel shower moving through here right now. Love it!
  12. Mount Joy Snowman
    MUCH more. Keeping a close eye on that time period.
  13. Mount Joy Snowman
    This definitely seems to be evolving into more of a prototypical Miller-A type costal with all the attached elements, for better or worse. Could be fun.
  14. Mount Joy Snowman
    For us eastern LSV folk, half of this is from the aforementioned wrap-around bands, so make of that what you will ha......
  15. Mount Joy Snowman
    BUT, GFS really wants to amp the coastal sunday morning and send some death bands back down our way. I know I know haha, but it's there verbatim.
  16. Mount Joy Snowman
    Not as much pop on the GFS, rates a little lower and totals take a small hit.
  17. Mount Joy Snowman
    Heights look a weeeee bit lower on GFS through Hr54 compared to 6z. Could come in a smidge colder.
  18. Mount Joy Snowman
    I've had similar experience with razor's edge events out my way. My old house sat at ~350' but I could drive a half mile up Chickies Ridge to 600' and see white. It's amazing what a little elevation can do in marginal events, which is why I'm thrilled to now sit ~480' haha.
  19. Mount Joy Snowman
    Thanks Davis, apologies for referring to you as "that other fella" haha. We've had a good number of new people around here lately and can be hard to keep track at times.
  20. Mount Joy Snowman
    Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'.
  21. Mount Joy Snowman
    This is from 6z but the wind field associated with the LLJ paints almost a perfect picture of where I think that mix line could set up most stubbornly Saturday evening as the southeasterlies get cranking......
  22. Mount Joy Snowman
    Mostly holds but gets tighter around the edges with the mix line. Keeps encroaching a wee bit for those of us in Lanc. Could be a tight one down this way. But then again, when is it not ha.
  23. Mount Joy Snowman
    The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties. The 3k NAM is solid. Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two? I know they use their own "predictor" model.
  24. Mount Joy Snowman
    It so often sets up there and has been hinted at by lots of guidance. That little bit of elevation around Etown helps define it as well.
  25. Mount Joy Snowman
    Correct. Gonna be brief. Hopefully she comes hard and fast to help overcome any and all thermal issues. Could be a fun little afternoon if we keep expectations low.
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