Mount Joy Snowman

Yep. That whole "State College to Sunbury and points north" area I mentioned a couple days back has always looked solid. My buddy's cabin up at 1800' near the Tioga/Potter border made out great with the last event and is set up nice for this one. Granted, that spot is almost always set up well ha.

Yeah it's been a bit depressing perusing the models this morning. I'm not giving up hope beyond Friday but it would be quite fitting for this winter to end with another series of disappointments. We'll keep scouring for signs of life though, and like I've said previously the ULL pattern could at least be interesting for a couple days.

That's pretty much what I was trying to convey in my post a little while back. He just did it better and with a lot more science backing it. I'll let Elliott have this one

Neither do I, particularly ones that gain this type of latitude without a sufficiently cold antecedent airmass in place. To say nothing of the surface temperature issues that are going to act as a big deterrent to anything falling as white staying white.

I think we are very near a consensus for the Friday threat, with minimal changes from here on out. I see a Miller-B type system that's just a little too disorganized and gains a little too much latitude, while being a bit slow on the transfer and then moving east fairly quickly once it does. All in all, just a snow/rain showery kind of day with some moderate to heavy periods embedded. Accumulations will be tough to come by, with surface temps well above freezing making for inefficient accumulation and no issues on roadways. Perhaps a couple slushy inches on non-paved surfaces would be my take for most of the LSV, with likely less for areas south of Harrisburg. I think you'll have to go up to about a State College to Sunbury type line and beyond before seeing some respectable amounts. Jury still out on the subsequent threats. The real intrigue may reside in the Monday to Thursday period when we're stuck under the ULL, with daily chances for snow showers and perhaps some decent squalls. These setups always surprise. I expect a few select locations to make out pretty well during this period, with temps much more conducive to holding whatever falls. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Onward.

As if we didn't have enough reason to be excited, the 'ol NAVGEM has multiple good looks for us in the coming week! But seriously, is the Navy model just completely disregarded at this point? Didn't there used to be a handy adage about the NAV being the most progressive of the models? Feel free to hit me with a lifetime ban for even bringing this to the table haha.

To these untrammeled eyes, each of the GFS, CMC, and Euro offer bountiful opportunities in the weeks ahead and either display multiple outright hits or are oh so close to very solid events for the forum. There is much to be ironed out but the potential is undoubtedly there. How can you be a weather enthusiast and not be at least a little excited by the pattern ahead. With the passing of every 12-hour shift, my intrigue grows. #WinterIsComing

Good morning all! Just some flurries here in the capital district. Laporte got 8 inches of snow last night, because of course they did. Also, Peter Sinks, UT hit -41. Just thought you should know. Not gonna lie, I'm pretty amped to check out today's 12z suite. Just so many possibilities. Everything from complete shutout to snowapalooza is on the table.

Just absolutely wild what is happening out there. Looking through their historical records, it seems the 2010-11 season was their snowiest on record with 669". I think they break that this year, perhaps by a wide margin. 555" and counting.....

Yep, seems like a lifetime ago ha.

I am choosing to lock in the Ukie at range. Sue me.

It really is. All you can do is laugh. Luckily still some more time for things to "resolve".

Yes that is certainly one of the possible outcomes. Everything is on the table at this point.

@Itstrainingtime it just never ends out west this year......

Well well, things have trended in a more intriguing direction for tonight's snowfall. Boundary temps are an issue but it's possible I could wake up to some white on certain surfaces. Certainly I think once you get into northern Dauphin/Perry counties and beyond this should be a nice little event to wake up to. Kicks-off this upcoming period on the right foot. Of which there is still much to be settled, but man there is going to be storms and snow somewhere, and that's really all we can ask for. @canderson I feel bad for your little yellow rose, gonna be one heck of miserable March once we settle into this upcoming pattern. I suspect there will be a lot of unhappy flora in the weeks ahead.

All rain here now but fun while it lasted, actually came down moderate at times. My thoughts for all the upcoming fun are that the models are all over the map and will continue to be that way for a while yet; pay no mind. The big picture, as @Itstrainingtime has been harping on since seemingly the Orioles stopped playing, is that the pattern is loaded for bear. Regardless of whether we actually get hit with a big storm or not, is anyone else getting excited about one of those "stuck under an ULL for days with fantastically miserable winter-like conditions" type patterns? You know the type -- lots of gray, unseasonable chill, persistent northwest winds, and a consistent stream of on and off snow showers. My confidence is growing that sometime within the next couple of weeks we'll be in one of those patterns and finally it will look and feel like winter. Better late than never. Now let's go hook that big one!

There was quite a bit of dry air to overcome over here today, loads of virga. Well I'll be damned right as I post this if there isn't snow falling from the sky. I'm sure it won't last long but.....win.

You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us

They really are.....

Looks like about .02" of rain here. My official February totals were 1.52" liquid and .1" of sleet. By "official" I mean my interpolated values from the roughly 3,734 sources that I use for precipitation data, as I still don't have a gauge up at the new place ha. Luckily, I am surrounded on all sides by some pretty reliable WU stations in close proximity. National high of 105 at Falcon Lake, TX. Been a minute since I've seen anything over 100, so yeah, it's coming. Low was -19 at Seagull lake, MN. Tomorrow is a nothing burger down here. Hoping for one last miracle in that mid-March timeframe everyone is humming about. After that, let's get on with Spring. Bu-bye.

So, February officially ends up at 40.8 for MDT, second warmest ever. Friday looks lost. It's middle-March or bust for the winter it appears. Not that anything will save it from being a complete bust at this point. Onward.

Heavy sleet shower just rolled through here. Quite heavy. But the rest of you are probably just seeing plain rain since I basically live on a mountain now at 470’.

Pack a few extras in the cooler brotha', because I'm with ya on that train.

Howdy! Don't get me wrong, by front-end thump I mean more of a front-end whimper. Yes I've been keeping tabs on the happenings out west. Just astounding the year they are having. Setting up perfectly for you. So, for both tonight's event and the Friday storm, you know where I'd want to be in PA? As always......Laporte.

Mornin' all! I was on vacation all last week so I only loosely kept an eye on the board. By vacation, I don't mean actually going anywhere; rather, just no work while still being stuck at home with a one-year old, two-year old, two dogs, and a wife. Make of that statement what you will Thanks @Bubbler86 for the shoutout on the monthly temp prediction. I see we are at 40.8 heading into the last two days. I think we knock a couple tenths off and come in juuuuust ahead of 1998 for second place all time, only losing out to the impressive 41.3 average from 2017. March looks to be much more reasonable, perhaps even on the chilly side. As others have mentioned, I'm sure our April and May will be plenty miserable to make up for things haha. As for this weekend, I've been watching but consider me on the "meh" side of things. I expect, well, the expected ha. What I mean by that is probably our standard scenario of a brief front-end thump of snow, quickly changing to sleet and plain rain as the secondary development occurs too late, and then hoping for some back-side snow that never comes. This seems like a New England special. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good to be back, cheers mates!