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Everything posted by Mount Joy Snowman
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Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks the same as 12z so far. i.e. not good. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Scanning across the 12z Meso suite and yikes......the fat leading is singing for the LSV. If they are correct, and it sure seems they will be, then this will go down as a pretty big miss for the globals. More disappointment in what is fast becoming a disappointing winter. Here's to a pattern shift shaking things up in the weeks to come, but not holding my breath on anything at this point. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Welp, been pouring over the guidance here this morning and......not good. The concern I brought up yesterday about the initial slug of moisture missing us to the north seems to be coming to fruition. Mesos are a mess, with drylslot and temp issues abound. I'm selling this stock for Lancaster County. I'll stick with my original over/under of an inch at this point but would throw down some serious coin on the under. Good luck to those across the Midstate in line for some stickage. As always, I hope to be wrong. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Haha i love that one, a true classic! But yeah, I’m not getting that warm and fuzzy feeling about the Wednesday potential anymore. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Add the Ukie to the list of 12z runs cutting back totals and moving the boundary north a bit. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The Canadian has also shunted totals and moved them further north. Not loving these trends. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah I'm with ya. However, the tail ends of both the FV3 and the 3k NAM also show that overrunning breaking out a bit too far to our north for my liking. Something to keep an eye on. As of now I'm putting the over/under at an inch for my neck of the woods. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models. GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hang in there big fella! (just a colloquialism, have no idea as to your actual stature haha). I'm genuinely shocked you didn't see more action than that this morning (insert crude joke here). It was legitimately snowing here for multiple hours. Hey, maybe that extra 100' of elevation I gained from my move is finally paying off -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Things winding down now but it was a beautiful snow globe of a scene here this morning. Rates were actually pretty solid for quite a while and likely would have amounted to more had marginal temps not made for difficult surface accumulation. As is, a big fat .1" is going in the books. I'll take it and look forward to more on Wednesday. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Actually had some big parachutes falling here for a little while. My two-year old was loving it, raising him right -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Snow is flying through the air here in Lancaster. Yes, you heard that correctly. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well, I will officially see frozen here today, as we had a nice little sleet shower just roll through. Hey, we have to embrace the small victories down this way ha. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Some light flurries and graupel scattered about the region this morning. Wednesday looking like a nice little event. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Have I mentioned that Laporte is a great vacation spot Every. Single. Storm. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's not a shutout! I'm at .1" for the season! *shouts the guy from west-central Lanc. Co.* -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Funny you bring this up, as I've been working on a detailed study of MU's entire POR snowfall data for quite some time. I pretty much have it all wrapped up and will post the results sometime soon, thinking Monday or Tuesday. I think you guys will enjoy it. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No, I'm just talking about my trusty manual cylinder gauge; the one used by all the Cocorahs folks. I do have a very nice weather station (not even sure of the make/model) that my wife's father got me years ago that I need to set up as well, but man, it's just been tough finding time to do anything with moving into a new house and having a baby and a toddler. One of these days..... -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Ha tell me about. I concur with regard to the mailbox; think I may move ahead with this plan. It also allows me to kill two birds with one stone by checking the gauge and the mail at the same time. Will also encourage me to check the mail daily, as I should. I have a pretty steep driveway, so my motivation to traverse to the end and back on a daily basis has been......how shall we say, limited haha. My wife couldn't care less about the weather, except for when it's poor or interferes with her plans, then I receive full blame for what's occurring -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The majority of the WU stations right around me are between .65-.7". That final line that went through last night seemed to drop a little more out this way. Still no gauge up for me. Unacceptable, I know. Just too much old growth interfering and nowhere to attach it that isn't too close to the house or in a relatively open space. Think I might secure it to the mailbox. Would that be weird? -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Indeed it is. Nothing like hanging our hats on the 84 hour NAM haha. Hey, it's happened before. I'm not throwing in the towel on anything at this point, while realizing the odds are against us. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I have a newfound respect for Waynesboro. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I can live with these looks for the Sun/Wed storms. Not exactly the cleanest for our area but let's see where it takes us. Here's to hoping the Euro leads the way! -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Man, the models are just a parade of cutters and warmth and fleeting cold. Still hopeful that something surprises by month's end but even the most bright-eyed optimist has to admit things look gloomy for the foreseeable future. Here's to hoping February shakes things up, as she often does. -
Central PA Winter 2022/2023
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Since I know @Itstrainingtime has been anxiously awaiting -- national high of 88 near Pharr, TX and low of -15 at Clayton Lake, ME.