Mount Joy Snowman

Yeah the diurnal range for Friday is going to be something to behold. I saw Cheyenne recorded its largest temperature drop ever, going from 43 to 3 in just 30 minutes. Here is what I do know in regards to the daily average temp: simply taking the daily high and low and finding the midpoint between the two, as is the method currently used, is NOT a fully accurate representation of the temperature profile for a given day. I've said too much on this topic ha. Back to the snow and cold speak.

Me as well. After lunch tomorrow I don't go back until 1/4/23. Enjoy your vacation!

Yeah I've long thought they should use a weighted average for the daily temp. Do something like take all the on-the-hour temps and multiply each one by 1/24th then add them all together. Still not perfect but a much better picture of the day that's being evaluated. Obviously the more time periods you split it up into, the more accurate it will be (e.g. sum all 15-minute temps readings times 1/96th). Briefly touching an extreme value can have an undue influence on the daily average, especially when it occurs around midnight and affects multiple days. This works in both directions and I suppose in the grand scheme of things all comes out in the wash, but I'm a stickler for numerical accuracy. I digress.

Yeah for the most part the models really nailed the cutoff across Lancaster County. Just rain here now and roads are totally fine. Officially .1" of snow/sleet going in the books for this guy. I'll take it and hope for some fun little action tomorrow morning.

Snow has stopped here, just a very fine sleet falling. All the hi-res models are in complete agreement on a snow-squall-ish type shower passing through the Lancaster area in association with the arctic front between 7 and 10am tomorrow, which may drop a quick half inch. I dig it.

Still primarily snow here but sleet mixing in. .1" will certainly be the number for me, back-side love notwithstanding.

A pleasantly surprising coating of snow on everything here this morning. We are officially on the board in West Hempfield. Expecting a transition away from snow soon but going to enjoy it while it's here. About to test out the roads. Safe travels all!

I foresee less than a half inch total for my neck of the woods. Nothing on the front end but I do think we see our first flakes fly on the back-end frontal action, albeit with limited accumulations due to the rapidly drying atmospheric layers. Not out of the question that some in here experience brief blizzard conditions with the backend snows and howling winds. Cheers to those in the money. As always, I hope to be wrong.

Beautifully said. This is consuming a lot of the talk at work here today. And to think today is also Joe Pa's birthday, for whom Franco was one of the greatest advocates. It's also the week Franco was to have his jersey retired along with the 50th anniversary celebration of the immaculate reception. Just awful timing. So sad and sudden.

I love when you can see that well-defined snow line on mountains. We were driving up to Sunbury on Saturday morning for a family Xmas gathering and you could see a great example of the elevation-dependent nature of last week's storm on the "big" mountain that lies on the east side of the river just a few miles SSE of Selinsgrove. It gets up to ~1,500' or so and the top few hundred feet were nice and white while the rest was bare. I was keen on pointing it out to my wife, who let's just say, didn't find it quite as titillating as I did haha.

Putting aside the solid content of this post, the use of the term "rage boner" has to be worthy of some sort of award! I know I'll be adding it to my everyday vernacular going forward

Well, it looks like another threat washed away. No worries, ours will come. I will say, an H850 spread of 10 to -20 degrees across Pennsylvania on Friday would be evidence of one heck of an "I mean business" arctic front. Always love when those real-deal fronts come through, as @Itstrainingtime was alluding to. Could lead to some surprises and either way is an interesting feature to monitor. Name of the game will be cold, which is never a bad thing around Xmas. Now we just need to find some white.

The most freakish weather event I’ve ever been around. Will never forget it.

My official tally for yesterday is a trace to perhaps .05" of ice accretion and 1.75" of liquid. On to next week. Let the model wars begin.

Love seeing someone post from the northern tier. We need more of that God’s Country representation! What is your elevation?

Hard to even call this a winter weather event down in my neck of the woods, just a steady moderate to heavy rain all day long. Now, about that Xmas time period......

Good to see you posting. It's always nice to have fellow Chickies Ridge inhabitants represented on the board.

Interesting. Will they be taking it out to 84 hours or keeping it at the current 60? Would hate to lose that 3-day range.

Haha right. In all seriousness, I was thinking it may serve as like a 10-15 minute lead time. Whoa whoa whoa, come again. Please elaborate on said NAM extermination. Perhaps I was caught out of the loop but haven't heard about this one. That would be terrible, IMO.

Yep, I'm already scoring this one as another W in the NAM column. Sometimes the lower resolution of the GFS and other globals causes them to really struggle with finding those sneaky warm layers aloft. I always trust the higher-res models with regards to precip type. None of them are infallible but more times than not they nail the warm air intrusions while the globals struggle.

Same. I pride myself on knowing every backwoods locale in this Commonwealth, yet had to look this one up. In other news, I'm a solid 9 miles ESE of you now so I should be able to serve as a pretty good warning signal to you for changeover events. Not really relevant today but when we're fighting off the sleet line I should be able to act as a decent barometer for what's coming your way.

The minimal icy glaze that had existed earlier this morning is mostly gone and rain is the name of the game down here.

I was actually thinking of you making that drive when I posted that, since you seem to head up 'er pretty often. I've made it quite a few times as well, and yeah, it's always a different world when you get up there above 2,000'.

Yep, I'm betting on no white at all falling for us. As always, would love to be wrong.

As far as I can tell, the RGEM's primary purpose is to throw out insanely juiced up fantastical FRZ maps that will never come close to verifying, and I'm here for all of it